Why I'm optimistic about cleantech over the next four years
Having spent over 15 years deeply involved in the cleantech industry, I’ve experienced its peaks, valleys, and everything in between. Since Trump’s win, industry insiders and the media have been wallowing in an unusual amount of doom and gloom. Many are concerned about policy uncertainty, shifting market conditions, and the challenges of scaling up technologies that are inherent in our sector.But let me share a contrarian view. I think we’re on the brink of a golden era for renewable energy and clean transportation deployments. In fact, I believe the next four years will redefine our industry in ways we’ve only dreamed of. Here’s why. Renewables + storage will dominate energy economics Lithium-ion battery prices have been falling for years, driven by the expansion of manufacturing and technological innovation. By the end of this decade, renewable energy combined with storage solutions will offer the lowest cost of energy for most hours of the day. This is the inevitable outcome of economies of scale meeting the pressing global need for clean energy.Wind and solar, paired with increasingly cost-effective storage systems, will soon surpass fossil fuels — not just on environmental grounds but on pure economic competitiveness. This shift will transform energy markets, making clean energy the default for businesses, municipalities, and consumers alike. However, there’s an important caveat: Dispatchable sources will still be essential for the foreseeable future.While renewables will meet the majority of our energy needs, delivering consistent energy with these resources will still be a challenge at night or on days when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow. This is where dispatchable sources like virtual power plants and biogas play a crucial role.Both are gaining traction as reliable, scalable solutions. VPPs aggregate decentralized energy generators and loads, such as demand-response assets, rooftop solar, and batteries, to dial down grid loading in real time. Meanwhile, biogas (in the form of renewable natural gas) offers a carbon-negative, dispatchable energy source that can be ramped up quickly when the grid needs it most. Together, these technologies fill the gaps left by intermittent renewables, ensuring reliability without compromising on sustainability.Then there’s geothermal — which happens to be having a moment.For decades, geothermal energy has been the underrated player in clean energy discussions. That’s changing fast. Recent advances in drilling and heat-extraction technologies are making this underdog both reliable and cost-competitive.Unlike wind and solar, geothermal provides a consistent baseload power supply, regardless of weather conditions. As deployment ramps up, it will solidify its position as a cornerstone of clean energy infrastructure, complementing other renewable sources. EV adoption is speeding up Passenger electric vehicles are no longer just better for the environment — they’re objectively better products. Now that EVs and internal-combustion-engine vehicles have reached cost parity, the tipping point has arrived. Hockey-stick adoption rates are already evident, and the momentum will only accelerate. Meanwhile, Class 5 to 8 vehicles (commercial trucks) are next in line to electrify. Advances in battery technology and increased manufacturing will make these heavy-duty EVs the standard across logistics, freight, and public transit sectors. This isn’t speculative; it’s occurring now, and the trend is unstoppable.
Having spent over 15 years deeply involved in the cleantech industry, I’ve experienced its peaks, valleys, and everything in between. Since Trump’s win, industry insiders and the media have been wallowing in an unusual amount of doom and gloom. Many are concerned about policy uncertainty, shifting market conditions,…
Having spent over 15 years deeply involved in the cleantech industry, I’ve experienced its peaks, valleys, and everything in between. Since Trump’s win, industry insiders and the media have been wallowing in an unusual amount of doom and gloom. Many are concerned about policy uncertainty, shifting market conditions, and the challenges of scaling up technologies that are inherent in our sector.
But let me share a contrarian view. I think we’re on the brink of a golden era for renewable energy and clean transportation deployments. In fact, I believe the next four years will redefine our industry in ways we’ve only dreamed of. Here’s why.
Renewables + storage will dominate energy economics
Lithium-ion battery prices have been falling for years, driven by the expansion of manufacturing and technological innovation. By the end of this decade, renewable energy combined with storage solutions will offer the lowest cost of energy for most hours of the day. This is the inevitable outcome of economies of scale meeting the pressing global need for clean energy.
Wind and solar, paired with increasingly cost-effective storage systems, will soon surpass fossil fuels — not just on environmental grounds but on pure economic competitiveness. This shift will transform energy markets, making clean energy the default for businesses, municipalities, and consumers alike. However, there’s an important caveat: Dispatchable sources will still be essential for the foreseeable future.
While renewables will meet the majority of our energy needs, delivering consistent energy with these resources will still be a challenge at night or on days when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow. This is where dispatchable sources like virtual power plants and biogas play a crucial role.
Both are gaining traction as reliable, scalable solutions. VPPs aggregate decentralized energy generators and loads, such as demand-response assets, rooftop solar, and batteries, to dial down grid loading in real time. Meanwhile, biogas (in the form of renewable natural gas) offers a carbon-negative, dispatchable energy source that can be ramped up quickly when the grid needs it most. Together, these technologies fill the gaps left by intermittent renewables, ensuring reliability without compromising on sustainability.
Then there’s geothermal — which happens to be having a moment.
For decades, geothermal energy has been the underrated player in clean energy discussions. That’s changing fast. Recent advances in drilling and heat-extraction technologies are making this underdog both reliable and cost-competitive.
Unlike wind and solar, geothermal provides a consistent baseload power supply, regardless of weather conditions. As deployment ramps up, it will solidify its position as a cornerstone of clean energy infrastructure, complementing other renewable sources.
EV adoption is speeding up
Passenger electric vehicles are no longer just better for the environment — they’re objectively better products. Now that EVs and internal-combustion-engine vehicles have reached cost parity, the tipping point has arrived. Hockey-stick adoption rates are already evident, and the momentum will only accelerate. Meanwhile, Class 5 to 8 vehicles (commercial trucks) are next in line to electrify. Advances in battery technology and increased manufacturing will make these heavy-duty EVs the standard across logistics, freight, and public transit sectors.
This isn’t speculative; it’s occurring now, and the trend is unstoppable.
