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The latest update on NZ’s state of the environment is sobering – but there are glimmers of progress

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Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Shutterstock/synthetickIf left unaddressed, many environmental changes in Aotearoa New Zealand could threaten livelihoods, health, quality of life and infrastructure for generations to come, according to the latest update on the state of the environment. The Ministry for the Environment and StatsNZ produce an environmental assessment every three years, collating data and trends on air quality, freshwater and marine environments, the land and climate. The latest report shows that long-term drivers of change – including international influences, economic demands and climate change – mean many natural systems have become less resilient and are at risk of collapse. But it also highlights improvements in urban air quality and reduced waste flows to landfill. Real risks to people, communities and places Many environmental trends in New Zealand are sobering. Soil erosion is increasing and continues to degrade downstream freshwater and marine ecosystems. Soils misplaced from land, including through landslides or gradual loss of topsoil, can threaten homes and infrastructure and reduce the potential for growing food or storing carbon. Climate change is projected to increase erosion rates by up to 233%, depending on future emissions scenarios. Native forests are most effective at reducing soil erosion, but exotic forests can also help. The report shows the area planted in exotic forest has increased by 12% (220,922 hectares) between 1996 and 2018, with most of this new area coming from exotic grassland. Landfill contaminants, including leachates and microplastics, threaten soil health. New Zealand remains the highest producer of waste to landfill per capita among developed countries, but waste flows to landfill have dropped by 11% in 2023, compared with a 2018 peak. The report offers another glimmer of progress. While air pollution still affects health, long-term air quality is gradually improving thanks to a shift away from cars with combustion engines. Population growth and urban development are displacing green spaces. Getty Images Water quality and green spaces What happens on land commonly flows into water, often affecting human health and recreation. The report shows that between 2019 and 2024, nearly half of all groundwater monitoring sites failed to meet drinking water standards for E. coli at least once. Nitrate concentrations also rose at around half of all sites. Freshwater ecosystems are critically affected by the space we give them. Urban development can displace natural features such as wetlands and floodplains, which store water and provide a buffer against extreme weather events. Four in five New Zealanders live in urban areas and the report shows green spaces have not kept up with population growth. Continued development near rivers and on floodplains, without maintaining natural buffers, increases risks to homes and infrastructure as flood extremes worsen with climate change. Coastal areas face their own challenges. Rising seas and storm surges threaten not only homes and roads, but also culturally significant places. As many as 420 archaeological sites on public conservation land are at risk of coastal inundation and 191 marae are within one kilometre of the coast. Livelihoods and biodiversity at risk New Zealand is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and natural landscapes are central to cultural identity. The land and waters, and species we share them with, are inseparable from Māori identity. The economy, from agriculture to tourism, also depends on thriving ecosystems. But many pressures on biodiversity are worsening, according to the report. About 94% of native reptiles and 78% of native birds are threatened or at risk of extinction. Extreme weather events (expected to increase with climate change) threaten food and fibre crops. The report estimates the recovery of these sectors from Cyclone Gabrielle will cost up to NZ$1.1 billion. Pest species continue to damage ecosystems at a cost of $9.2 billion in 2019–20, including primary-sector losses of $4.3 billion. Wilding conifers are a particular concern, having invaded an estimated two million hectares of land, primarily on the conservation estate. Without careful management, the report projects they could cover up to 25% of New Zealand’s land within 30 years. The restoration of Te Auaunga, Auckland’s longest urban river, is helping to reduce flooding and improve recreational spaces. Shutterstock/aiyoshi597 Stories behind the numbers For the first time, the ministry has released a companion report to share stories of hope. It highlights the links between environmental challenges and how nature-based approaches can benefit both people and the environment. In Tairāwhiti, for instance, a native forest restoration project is protecting Gisborne’s drinking water supply. A large block of commercial pine is being replaced with native forests to stabilise erodible land, filter water runoff before it reaches dams, and provide habitat for native flora and fauna. In Auckland, the Making Space for Water program is restoring Te Auaunga (Oakley Creek), the city’s longest urban river. The work includes widening the river channel, removing restrictive structures and planting native vegetation to regenerate historical wetland habitats. Along with reducing flooding in the area, these changes provide improved recreational spaces for people. The report notes the complexity of interactions between people and the natural environment, which means that many impacts cannot be seen straight away. For instance, nitrates move through groundwater very slowly and we may continue to see the effects of past decisions for some time yet. Furthermore, climate change can amplify many environmental stressors. The state of our environment mirrors our collective decisions. This update offers an opportunity to guide those decisions towards a more resilient future. Christina McCabe is affiliated with Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha / The University of Canterbury, and Te Pūnaha Matatini, a Centre of Research Excellence.

Soil erosion, water pollution, waste production and the loss of biodiversity are among multiple pressures degrading New Zealand’s environment.

Shutterstock/synthetick

If left unaddressed, many environmental changes in Aotearoa New Zealand could threaten livelihoods, health, quality of life and infrastructure for generations to come, according to the latest update on the state of the environment.

The Ministry for the Environment and StatsNZ produce an environmental assessment every three years, collating data and trends on air quality, freshwater and marine environments, the land and climate.

The latest report shows that long-term drivers of change – including international influences, economic demands and climate change – mean many natural systems have become less resilient and are at risk of collapse. But it also highlights improvements in urban air quality and reduced waste flows to landfill.

Real risks to people, communities and places

Many environmental trends in New Zealand are sobering.

Soil erosion is increasing and continues to degrade downstream freshwater and marine ecosystems. Soils misplaced from land, including through landslides or gradual loss of topsoil, can threaten homes and infrastructure and reduce the potential for growing food or storing carbon.

Climate change is projected to increase erosion rates by up to 233%, depending on future emissions scenarios.

Native forests are most effective at reducing soil erosion, but exotic forests can also help. The report shows the area planted in exotic forest has increased by 12% (220,922 hectares) between 1996 and 2018, with most of this new area coming from exotic grassland.

Landfill contaminants, including leachates and microplastics, threaten soil health. New Zealand remains the highest producer of waste to landfill per capita among developed countries, but waste flows to landfill have dropped by 11% in 2023, compared with a 2018 peak.

The report offers another glimmer of progress. While air pollution still affects health, long-term air quality is gradually improving thanks to a shift away from cars with combustion engines.

Congested multi-lane highway and dense housing
Population growth and urban development are displacing green spaces. Getty Images

Water quality and green spaces

What happens on land commonly flows into water, often affecting human health and recreation. The report shows that between 2019 and 2024, nearly half of all groundwater monitoring sites failed to meet drinking water standards for E. coli at least once. Nitrate concentrations also rose at around half of all sites.

Freshwater ecosystems are critically affected by the space we give them. Urban development can displace natural features such as wetlands and floodplains, which store water and provide a buffer against extreme weather events.

Four in five New Zealanders live in urban areas and the report shows green spaces have not kept up with population growth. Continued development near rivers and on floodplains, without maintaining natural buffers, increases risks to homes and infrastructure as flood extremes worsen with climate change.

Coastal areas face their own challenges. Rising seas and storm surges threaten not only homes and roads, but also culturally significant places. As many as 420 archaeological sites on public conservation land are at risk of coastal inundation and 191 marae are within one kilometre of the coast.

Livelihoods and biodiversity at risk

New Zealand is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and natural landscapes are central to cultural identity. The land and waters, and species we share them with, are inseparable from Māori identity. The economy, from agriculture to tourism, also depends on thriving ecosystems.

But many pressures on biodiversity are worsening, according to the report. About 94% of native reptiles and 78% of native birds are threatened or at risk of extinction.

Extreme weather events (expected to increase with climate change) threaten food and fibre crops. The report estimates the recovery of these sectors from Cyclone Gabrielle will cost up to NZ$1.1 billion.

Pest species continue to damage ecosystems at a cost of $9.2 billion in 2019–20, including primary-sector losses of $4.3 billion.

Wilding conifers are a particular concern, having invaded an estimated two million hectares of land, primarily on the conservation estate. Without careful management, the report projects they could cover up to 25% of New Zealand’s land within 30 years.

Scenic view of Oakley Creek waterfall in Auckland.
The restoration of Te Auaunga, Auckland’s longest urban river, is helping to reduce flooding and improve recreational spaces. Shutterstock/aiyoshi597

Stories behind the numbers

For the first time, the ministry has released a companion report to share stories of hope.

It highlights the links between environmental challenges and how nature-based approaches can benefit both people and the environment.

In Tairāwhiti, for instance, a native forest restoration project is protecting Gisborne’s drinking water supply. A large block of commercial pine is being replaced with native forests to stabilise erodible land, filter water runoff before it reaches dams, and provide habitat for native flora and fauna.

In Auckland, the Making Space for Water program is restoring Te Auaunga (Oakley Creek), the city’s longest urban river. The work includes widening the river channel, removing restrictive structures and planting native vegetation to regenerate historical wetland habitats. Along with reducing flooding in the area, these changes provide improved recreational spaces for people.

The report notes the complexity of interactions between people and the natural environment, which means that many impacts cannot be seen straight away. For instance, nitrates move through groundwater very slowly and we may continue to see the effects of past decisions for some time yet. Furthermore, climate change can amplify many environmental stressors.

The state of our environment mirrors our collective decisions. This update offers an opportunity to guide those decisions towards a more resilient future.

The Conversation

Christina McCabe is affiliated with Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha / The University of Canterbury, and Te Pūnaha Matatini, a Centre of Research Excellence.

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

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This story was supported by the Climate Equity Reporting Project and the Stakes Project at UC Berkeley School of Journalism. When MaCarmen Gonzalez moved from Mexico to the city of San Bernardino, east of Los Angeles, two decades ago, she brought one of her two sons with her. Soon after, he began suffering from asthma, while the son who remained in Mexico stayed healthy. The contrast convinced Gonzalez that the air in her new community — which had become a major distribution hub for Amazon and other online retailers — was making people sick. She began organizing with People’s Collective for Environmental Justice, a local environmental group, after seeing many of her friends fall ill with cancer — and in some cases — die from the disease. 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Photo courtesy of People’s Collective for Environmental Justice. Last summer, organizers won a major victory when the South Coast Air Quality Management District agreed to regulate rail yards, an often-overlooked but heavily polluting corner of the shipping industry. Health studies going back nearly two decades have found elevated cancer risk in communities near rail yards, including the BNSF Railway intermodal facility in San Bernardino, as well as reduced lung function in children going to school nearby. The pollution that trains, trucks and other vehicles generate in rail yards don’t only pose health risks to local residents, they’re also a significant source of climate-warming emissions.  But just as air regulators were preparing to crack down on the pollution coming from the 25 rail yards in the region, the effort hit a wall — a new presidential administration hostile to  environmental regulation.  Consequently, the rule that the South Coast Air Quality Management District adopted last summer intended to make rail companies like BNSF and Union Pacific Railroad clean up their operations is now off the table. The rule would have required the companies to dramatically reduce the toxic emissions generated by their Southern California rail yards, make plans to add zero emissions infrastructure and replace some diesel-powered equipment with cleaner electric alternatives. It was a blow to communities like San Bernardino, where pollution from goods movement has grown alongside the rise in e-commerce. It also threw a wrench in one of the region’s more promising strategies for addressing the persistent, interconnected problems of climate change and air pollution. And it’s just one of many ways communities could suffer under the Trump administration’s broad-based attack on environmental regulations. For now, local residents in San Bernardino are looking to state officials to rein in air pollution in their communities. But they face steep opposition from rail companies and industry lobbying groups. *   *   * The Inland Empire, where Gonzalez lives, is a basin-shaped region that stretches east of Los Angeles County, and includes the cities of San Bernardino, Riverside and Ontario. The towering San Gabriel Mountains, which form the region’s backdrop, are often obscured by a layer of gray-brown haze laden with lung-damaging particulates and other pollutants that get trapped by the peaks and hang in the air. The pandemic hastened the expansion of Southern California’s shipping industry, but the warehouses began to replace farms in the area as far back as the 1980s. Their proliferation has led to sprawl at a massive scale and has attracted over 600,000 trucks a day to the region. They transport everything from clothing and shoes to appliances and home goods from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Numerous studies have shown that living near transportation corridors is associated with higher rates of heart disease and cancer, adverse birth outcomes, negative effects on the immune system and neurotoxicity. “It’s funny to think you could be going out to exercise, but you might actually be hurting yourself more than you’re helping,” said Gem Montes, another organizer with People’s Collective for Environmental Justice, who started a citizen science project focused on testing the air after realizing air pollution was hampering her ability to go outside. She worked with high school students who found high levels of air pollution in their school and homes.   Montes lives in Colton, known as the “hub city,” which is home to the Union Pacific West Colton yard, another major rail yard.  Rail yards are built to include dozens of parallel tracks used for storing, sorting, loading and unloading train cars and locomotives. They use retired diesel locomotives to move trains around the yards — engines that are more polluting than people typically see traveling around the state.  And the trucks that park at the rail yards often idle for hours at a time. And the pollution they generate is not just from their emissions. There is also noise. Residents living near rail yards hear the sound of metal gnashing against metal as freight trains pass by, moving products from warehouses to far-flung distribution centers. At all hours of the day, trucks loaded up with cargo rumble through Inland Empire communities, headed to nearby warehouses, including a 1-million-square-foot Amazon fulfillment center. *   *   * The rules championed by environmental and community groups to curb emissions from rail yards and other polluters were part of a creative strategy employed by local air regulators in recent years to work around restrictions on regulating cars, trains and trucks, which typically cross state lines, placing them primarily under federal jurisdiction. These so-called indirect source rules allow local regulators to target emissions generated by trains and vehicles that are associated with stationary facilities — such as warehouses, sports stadiums or, in this case, rail yards — that attract significant traffic. The South Coast Air Quality Management District’s first indirect source rule was aimed at cutting vehicle emissions directly connected to warehouses. It was adopted in 2021 and imposes environmental fees on warehouse owners, which they can offset by adding solar panels to their roofs, replacing diesel loading vehicles with electric ones, or providing chargers for electric trucks.  Then, last August, the AQMD adopted a similar rule for rail yards, and community members were cautiously optimistic.  The rule required BNSF and Union Pacific to cut smog-forming nitrogen oxide pollution at all 25 rail yards in the region — an 82% reduction by 2037 — and mandated that the rail operators plan to build charging and other infrastructure to support zero-emission operations. A row of shipping containers sit in a lot next to a San Bernardino neighborhood. Photo: Jeremy Lindenfeld. It would have been an incremental step toward broader electrification of the rail industry in the state — and it would have paved the way for Union Pacific and BNSF to electrify their freight handling equipment and add charging infrastructure to the rail yards. However, the rule was written to take effect only after the state passed two related laws aimed at cutting emissions in trucks and passenger trains. And the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the state regulator that partners with 35 regional air districts, withdrew both rules from the EPA process in January, shortly before Trump took office, in recognition that approval by the new administration was dead on arrival.   Two large railroad industry trade groups, the Association of American Railroads and the American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association, had opposed the in-use Locomotive Regulation, which would have required train operators to begin transitioning their equipment to zero emissions. Both groups sued CARB in 2023 over the rule.  Neither BNSF nor Union Pacific responded to Capital & Main’s requests for comment.  *   *   * Now activists are hoping that the state can regulate the rail yard on its own — and state officials seem open to trying. This spring Rainbow Yeung, a spokesperson for AQMD, told Capital & Main that the agency was “continuing to discuss potential paths forward with CARB.” In March, Assemblymember Robert Garcia introduced Assembly Bill 914, which would have affirmed CARB’s authority to oversee indirect sources. But after it was amended, he placed it on hold, effectively killing it for the year. The nonprofit advocacy organization Earthjustice sponsored the bill alongside Garcia. Adrian Martinez, director of the organization’s Right To Zero campaign, says that the legislation will be reintroduced in early 2026.  A state-level rule targeting a range of “pollution magnets,” including rail yards, would be a novel step for California, which has been granted waivers by the EPA under both Republican and Democratic administrations that allow the state to go beyond federal air quality regulations. CARB listed the strategy in a recent set of recommendations to Gov. Gavin Newsom aimed at filling in the gaps left by the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine the state’s climate policy. “With our clean air standards under attack by the Trump administration, it’s vital that California brings more tools to the table to clear smog,” said Martinez. The Supply Chain Federation, an industry lobbying group that fought against AB 914, has expressed concern about the potential shift toward a statewide rule targeting indirect pollution sources. The group “will continue to oppose similar proposals in the future,” said Sarah Wiltfong, chief public policy and advocacy officer for the federation in an email. The Supply Chain Federation released a report in July calling AQMD’s warehouse indirect source rule  “deeply flawed, economically harmful, and environmentally ineffective” and said it wants CARB’s other existing approaches to vehicle emissions standards to continue instead.   Andrea Vidaurre, co-founder of People’s Collective for Environmental Justice, feels optimistic about the potential for a state-level indirect source rule but added that it is not the only way forward.  “Rail yards are a huge source of air pollution, so if it’s not through [an indirect source rule], we’re asking what else California can do to make sure that it’s looking at [vehicle] idling limits, infrastructure upgrades, whatever it might need to do to have these places ready for [electric trains] — technology that exists everywhere else in the world but here.” And while electrifying trains and trucks would go a long way toward reducing pollution and cutting greenhouse gases, Vidaurre and her fellow advocates say that the larger issue of consumption — how much and how we buy — is the elephant in the room.  Even last fall, when it seemed all but guaranteed that the region would take an incremental step toward cleaning up its rail yards, she said the new regulations wouldn’t be a silver bullet.  “The problem is that we’re concentrating everything in one community,” said Vidaurre. “Forty percent of the nation’s imports move through these two ports.” But even if trucks and trains get electrified, she added, we still need fewer of them on the road. Copyright 2025 Capital & Main. Maison Tran is a UC Berkeley California Local News Fellow.

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