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The climate crisis is coming for 'the CEO of the family's health'

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Thursday, May 30, 2024

The increasing incidence of climate change-induced heat spikes, wildfires and life-threatening flash floods is engulfing pregnant and postpartum individuals in a wave of eco-anxiety and depression. "The mom is kind of guiding the ship," Jennifer Barkin, an expert on maternal mental health, told The Hill. "You're already worried about — are your kids eating enough vegetables? Are kids getting school on time? How are their grades? And now you've got this additional worry." Barkin, a professor of community medicine and obstetrics and gynecology at the Mercer University School of Medicine in Georgia, characterized the influence of climate change on maternal mental health as “a global issue,” while noting that “it hits the disadvantaged in a more dramatic way — and quicker.” The issue appears to be going largely unnoticed, however. Although the concept of climate despair has attracted some media attention, there has been little coverage of the unique mental health impacts that occur during the perinatal period, Barkin and colleagues found in a December 2022 study. The perinatal period spans from pregnancy to a year following childbirth. That stage in a mother’s life "is a time of increased vulnerability to negative mood symptoms due to various changes within the mother and her environment," the authors noted in the study, published in the Journal of the American Psychiatric Nurses Association. Extreme weather events, which often result in disruptions of support networks as well as health care, jobs and education, can all become “possible downstream effects that exact a significant toll on mental health,” the authors noted. In a July 2022 editorial for Frontiers in Psychiatry, Barkin argued that more pregnant and postpartum women will be shouldering such outcomes, noting that “there is a looming threat (risk factor) on the horizon and its name is the climate crisis.” The physiological effects of heat risk, which are intertwined with its mental health impacts, are amplified in pregnancy — when symptoms like dehydration can take a particular toll on all organ systems, Barkin told The Hill. A November 2023 advocacy brief from the World Health Organization stressed that "climate hazards, including extreme heat, are associated with increased risks of developing complications that lead to adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes." Such effects, the brief said, could "affect mental health and contribute to intergenerational trauma," while causing an increase of "stress, anxiety and depression — known risk factors for adverse perinatal outcomes." When families either choose or are forced to migrate due to climate change, the mental health effects on pregnant individuals are especially severe, as they have a fetus to consider, Barkin stressed. "If you're pregnant, and you're in an evacuation center, two other kids and no obstetric care what if you have an emergency?" Barkin asked. "Or if you have your prenatal care, and you've got your child's pediatrician lined up, and you need to move suddenly? I mean, it's a major stressor, and it's a disruption in care." "Depression and anxiety are related to the severity of the exposure," she continued. "Were you wading through floodwaters, were you directly breathing in the wildfire smoke? All of that is linked to the severity of the mental health consequences." In an evacuation center, Barkin continued, there's also the question of cleanliness, infectious diseases or the inability to find dry clothing. A January 2023 literature review likewise found that "climate change-related environmental exposures, including extreme temperatures, air pollution and natural disasters, are significantly associated with adverse perinatal and maternal health outcomes across the United States." These effects included mental health issues, such as the development of maternal depression following a natural disaster event like Hurricane Katrina, per the review, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. Laura Geer, the senior author of that review, explained that “a post-climate related event can go in two different directions.” In the first, she explained, a mother can be thrown into a position of social isolation in which she finds herself managing a family without appropriate access to care, while also facing a potential “intimate partner violence increase during this stressful period.” “Or you're highly resilient, you've got a lot of social support, you can kind of manage and weather, and it actually kind of makes you stronger,” added Geer, chair of the department of environmental and occupational health sciences at SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University. But in so many cases, severe climate disruptions can influence food and housing security, while sometimes leading to unhealthy coping mechanisms like illicit drug use, according to Geer. "Somebody's ability to be resilient is so directly tied to their mental health," she said. Even for those families not likely to face imminent displacement or natural disaster, the mental gymnastics connected to keeping kids protected from escalating heat can be exhausting. "I can think from a mother's perspective: Do I want to send my kids to a summer camp?" Barkin asked, noting that it's difficult to gauge whether individual camp counselors are "aware how to handle heat risk." Detailing her own internal debate as a mother, Barkin said that she discouraged her son from playing football — which requires wearing heavy equipment — in the Georgia weather, while adding that her daughter once fell ill from the heat at tennis camp. Mothers, she added, also often grapple with the fact that their kids are "going to inherit something they didn't create." More and more women, she has found, are raising questions like, "Do I want to bring kids up necessarily? Is it even ethical to get pregnant?" Geer echoed these sentiments, thinking back to the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Summer Olympics and the coinciding surge in the Zika virus — a mosquito-borne pathogen known to cause birth defects. The virus’s spread in the region prompted many athletes of childbearing age to reconsider their attendance, she explained. "I definitely think it led to anxiety around decisions about family planning, even in our country," Geer said, noting the increased concern that this vector of Zika could move up to the Southeast U.S. as well. Another quandary Barkin has found mothers facing is that while green spaces are supposed to be good for mental health, there is now increased uncertainty as to whether certain green spaces have become "inhospitable or inhabitable." Barkin cited several repeat complaints on the subject: "We're trapped inside. I've got these kids running around going crazy. I want to get them outside, but I can't breathe, or it's so hot, or I'm worried about breastfeeding the baby." In addition to those of childbearing age, much older women may be suffering similar mental health impacts from climate change.  Earlier this month, the European Court of Human Rights sided with a group of more than 2,000 older women, who had filed a complaint against the Swiss government demanding health protections from the effects of climate change. Members of the Swiss association, Verein KlimaSeniorinnen, or Climate Seniors, argued that they are uniquely vulnerable to the effects of surging heat waves — citing significant, climate-related health impacts on their daily routines. Among the effects they named were various heat-related physical symptoms, as well as social consequences— due to their inability to leave their homes. While these women may be from a different generation, the mental tumult they have been enduring bares similarities to the struggle that many young mothers experience during the perinatal period. Asked what clinicians can do to ensure that maternal eco-anxiety doesn’t fly under the radar, Barkin said "the good news is a lot of the infrastructure for screening for depression is already in place." Within that infrastructure is her own Barkin Index of Maternal Functioning, a patient-centered measure of postpartum functional status. In the July 2022 editorial, Barkin advised organizations that assist new mothers to "strongly consider incorporation of climate change effects into their programming," adding that health care providers should include environmental factors into mental and physical health assessments. She acknowledged that most OB-GYNs and pediatricians working with perinatal women do conduct depression screenings — which Barkin said is “going to work to everyone’s advantage.”  "But the bottleneck is, do they have somewhere to send them? And can they afford it?" she asked. "If you just had your home wiped out or you're injured, or your whole family's on the run, can you afford to stop and address your mental health?" Stressing that natural disasters are considered traumatic events, Barkin noted that such occurrences are poised to happen more frequently in the future. "That's going to impact mothers," she said, noting that they are often primary caregivers, regardless of whether they also work full time outside the home. "They're often kind of like the CEO of the family's health.” 

The increasing incidence of climate change-induced heat spikes, wildfires and life-threatening flash floods is engulfing pregnant and postpartum individuals in a wave of eco-anxiety and depression. "The mom is kind of guiding the ship," Jennifer Barkin, an expert on maternal mental health, told The Hill. "You're already worried about — are your kids eating enough...

The increasing incidence of climate change-induced heat spikes, wildfires and life-threatening flash floods is engulfing pregnant and postpartum individuals in a wave of eco-anxiety and depression.

"The mom is kind of guiding the ship," Jennifer Barkin, an expert on maternal mental health, told The Hill. "You're already worried about — are your kids eating enough vegetables? Are kids getting school on time? How are their grades? And now you've got this additional worry."

Barkin, a professor of community medicine and obstetrics and gynecology at the Mercer University School of Medicine in Georgia, characterized the influence of climate change on maternal mental health as “a global issue,” while noting that “it hits the disadvantaged in a more dramatic way — and quicker.”

The issue appears to be going largely unnoticed, however.

Although the concept of climate despair has attracted some media attention, there has been little coverage of the unique mental health impacts that occur during the perinatal period, Barkin and colleagues found in a December 2022 study. The perinatal period spans from pregnancy to a year following childbirth.

That stage in a mother’s life "is a time of increased vulnerability to negative mood symptoms due to various changes within the mother and her environment," the authors noted in the study, published in the Journal of the American Psychiatric Nurses Association.

Extreme weather events, which often result in disruptions of support networks as well as health care, jobs and education, can all become “possible downstream effects that exact a significant toll on mental health,” the authors noted.

In a July 2022 editorial for Frontiers in Psychiatry, Barkin argued that more pregnant and postpartum women will be shouldering such outcomes, noting that “there is a looming threat (risk factor) on the horizon and its name is the climate crisis.”

The physiological effects of heat risk, which are intertwined with its mental health impacts, are amplified in pregnancy — when symptoms like dehydration can take a particular toll on all organ systems, Barkin told The Hill.

A November 2023 advocacy brief from the World Health Organization stressed that "climate hazards, including extreme heat, are associated with increased risks of developing complications that lead to adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes."

Such effects, the brief said, could "affect mental health and contribute to intergenerational trauma," while causing an increase of "stress, anxiety and depression — known risk factors for adverse perinatal outcomes."

When families either choose or are forced to migrate due to climate change, the mental health effects on pregnant individuals are especially severe, as they have a fetus to consider, Barkin stressed.

"If you're pregnant, and you're in an evacuation center, two other kids and no obstetric care what if you have an emergency?" Barkin asked. "Or if you have your prenatal care, and you've got your child's pediatrician lined up, and you need to move suddenly? I mean, it's a major stressor, and it's a disruption in care."

"Depression and anxiety are related to the severity of the exposure," she continued. "Were you wading through floodwaters, were you directly breathing in the wildfire smoke? All of that is linked to the severity of the mental health consequences."

In an evacuation center, Barkin continued, there's also the question of cleanliness, infectious diseases or the inability to find dry clothing.

A January 2023 literature review likewise found that "climate change-related environmental exposures, including extreme temperatures, air pollution and natural disasters, are significantly associated with adverse perinatal and maternal health outcomes across the United States."

These effects included mental health issues, such as the development of maternal depression following a natural disaster event like Hurricane Katrina, per the review, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.

Laura Geer, the senior author of that review, explained that “a post-climate related event can go in two different directions.”

In the first, she explained, a mother can be thrown into a position of social isolation in which she finds herself managing a family without appropriate access to care, while also facing a potential “intimate partner violence increase during this stressful period.”

“Or you're highly resilient, you've got a lot of social support, you can kind of manage and weather, and it actually kind of makes you stronger,” added Geer, chair of the department of environmental and occupational health sciences at SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University.

But in so many cases, severe climate disruptions can influence food and housing security, while sometimes leading to unhealthy coping mechanisms like illicit drug use, according to Geer.

"Somebody's ability to be resilient is so directly tied to their mental health," she said.

Even for those families not likely to face imminent displacement or natural disaster, the mental gymnastics connected to keeping kids protected from escalating heat can be exhausting.

"I can think from a mother's perspective: Do I want to send my kids to a summer camp?" Barkin asked, noting that it's difficult to gauge whether individual camp counselors are "aware how to handle heat risk."

Detailing her own internal debate as a mother, Barkin said that she discouraged her son from playing football — which requires wearing heavy equipment — in the Georgia weather, while adding that her daughter once fell ill from the heat at tennis camp.

Mothers, she added, also often grapple with the fact that their kids are "going to inherit something they didn't create."

More and more women, she has found, are raising questions like, "Do I want to bring kids up necessarily? Is it even ethical to get pregnant?"

Geer echoed these sentiments, thinking back to the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Summer Olympics and the coinciding surge in the Zika virus — a mosquito-borne pathogen known to cause birth defects. The virus’s spread in the region prompted many athletes of childbearing age to reconsider their attendance, she explained.

"I definitely think it led to anxiety around decisions about family planning, even in our country," Geer said, noting the increased concern that this vector of Zika could move up to the Southeast U.S. as well.

Another quandary Barkin has found mothers facing is that while green spaces are supposed to be good for mental health, there is now increased uncertainty as to whether certain green spaces have become "inhospitable or inhabitable."

Barkin cited several repeat complaints on the subject: "We're trapped inside. I've got these kids running around going crazy. I want to get them outside, but I can't breathe, or it's so hot, or I'm worried about breastfeeding the baby."

In addition to those of childbearing age, much older women may be suffering similar mental health impacts from climate change. 

Earlier this month, the European Court of Human Rights sided with a group of more than 2,000 older women, who had filed a complaint against the Swiss government demanding health protections from the effects of climate change.

Members of the Swiss association, Verein KlimaSeniorinnen, or Climate Seniors, argued that they are uniquely vulnerable to the effects of surging heat waves — citing significant, climate-related health impacts on their daily routines. Among the effects they named were various heat-related physical symptoms, as well as social consequences— due to their inability to leave their homes.

While these women may be from a different generation, the mental tumult they have been enduring bares similarities to the struggle that many young mothers experience during the perinatal period.

Asked what clinicians can do to ensure that maternal eco-anxiety doesn’t fly under the radar, Barkin said "the good news is a lot of the infrastructure for screening for depression is already in place."

Within that infrastructure is her own Barkin Index of Maternal Functioning, a patient-centered measure of postpartum functional status.

In the July 2022 editorial, Barkin advised organizations that assist new mothers to "strongly consider incorporation of climate change effects into their programming," adding that health care providers should include environmental factors into mental and physical health assessments.

She acknowledged that most OB-GYNs and pediatricians working with perinatal women do conduct depression screenings — which Barkin said is “going to work to everyone’s advantage.” 

"But the bottleneck is, do they have somewhere to send them? And can they afford it?" she asked. "If you just had your home wiped out or you're injured, or your whole family's on the run, can you afford to stop and address your mental health?"

Stressing that natural disasters are considered traumatic events, Barkin noted that such occurrences are poised to happen more frequently in the future.

"That's going to impact mothers," she said, noting that they are often primary caregivers, regardless of whether they also work full time outside the home. "They're often kind of like the CEO of the family's health.” 

Read the full story here.
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Long-awaited environment laws might get Australia sued. Here’s why

Labor has pledged to pass long-awaited environment laws this week. But the current reforms leave Australia open to legal challenge.

Australia is rewriting its national environment laws, and Environment Minister Murray Watt has vowed the legislation will pass the parliament this week, despite not yet reaching agreement with either the Coalition or the Greens. But the current draft bill leaves the country exposed to significant legal, environmental and political risk. This is because the proposed changes to Australia’s environment legislation, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act, do not require the government to assess the climate impacts of new fossil-fuel projects. Minister Watt has already ruled out changing this. Yet international and domestic courts are increasingly clear: governments have a legal duty to consider the greenhouse gas emissions released by the projects they approve. Will the federal government create new laws that expose it to more domestic and international court action? Landmark legal advice In July 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the world’s highest court, delivered a landmark legal opinion. It found countries must act with “due diligence” to prevent significant harm to the climate system. This includes considering the climate harm caused by fossil-fuel production. They must also consider emissions released when fossil fuels are exported and combusted (known as downstream or Scope 3 emissions). While advisory opinions are not binding judgements, they clarify what obligations countries have under international law. For Australia, this means climate impacts are no longer optional considerations as a matter of international law. They are legally relevant factors that must be assessed before approving high-emitting projects. If Australia ignores its obligations, other nations may sue it in courts like the ICJ. The international law ruling may also be referenced by litigants in domestic disputes. The government’s law reform package is a set of seven bills totalling nearly 600 pages. Yet it contains no means of ensuring climate impacts are part of decision-making. The reforms require partial disclosure of emissions, but this information plays no role in approval decisions. And considering downstream emissions is not required at all, despite representing the majority of pollution from coal and gas projects. Domestic courts recognise climate link Australia’s own courts have already begun applying far stricter scrutiny to project approvals. In a court ruling in August, referred to as the Denman decision, the New South Wales Court of Appeal quashed a coal-mine expansion approval. A community environment group successfully argued the planning commission failed to consider the impact of all of the mine’s greenhouse gas emissions. This decision set a legal precedent. Next, mining giant Glencore’s application to extend its Ulan Coal Mine near Mudgee was declared invalid in mid November. A local environment group successfully argued the mine’s climate impacts had been insufficiently considered during assessment. The implications of these two decisions go far beyond New South Wales. The reasoning applies to how all Australian states and territories assess major fossil fuel projects. And they inform the federal govenrment’s legal obligations under Australia’s environment laws. Yet despite this, Minister Watt’s draft reforms do not clarify how climate impacts should be addressed under federal law. Safeguard mechanism won’t fill the gap Government ministers have argued climate impacts are better addressed under the so-called “safeguard mechanism”. This is a policy that requires large industrial polluters to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions each year. However, this is not an assessment or approval system. It applies only after a project begins operating and relies heavily on offsets of variable quality. It does not consider downstream emissions. Most importantly, it does not answer the core environmental law question. Namely, is this project compatible with Australia’s climate goals and international obligations? Australia out of step There is an emerging global legal consensus that climate impacts must be assessed as part of project-level approvals. Three decisions last year point to the change. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruled assessments of new projects must evaluate emissions affecting the marine environment. The European Court of Human Rights ruled assessments of new petroleum projects must quantify downstream emissions. And the UK Supreme Court held that downstream emissions must be included in environmental impact assessments. These decisions reinforce the principle that states must assess the full climate impact of projects before approving them – a point also reiterated by the ICJ. Failing to include these requirements in reformed environment laws could leave Australia exposed to domestic judicial review, High Court challenges and international claims relating to climate harm. Political contradictions Media reports indicate the Albanese government may negotiate with the Coalition to secure passage of environment law reforms. This comes as the Coalition has removed its commitment to net zero, while saying it would conditionally support new environment laws. This raises a contradiction. Policymakers and industry groups increasingly endorse “science-based” emissions targets while simultaneously supporting law reforms which would allow high-emitting projects to be approved without assessing their climate harm. This inconsistency boosts the risk of lawsuits and undermines international credibility, especially as Australia takes on the role of “President of the Negotiations” at next year’s COP31 summit. It also leaves key decisions to ministerial discretion. This means they are vulnerable to political, economic and lobbying pressures. A better path Reforming Australia’s environmental laws offers a rare chance to reflect scientific evidence and legal obligations. The law should be written to prevent harm, not to enable it. The law should be written to prevent harm, not to enable it. Jacqueline Peel receives funding from the Australian Research Council for her Kathleen Fitzpatrick Laureate Fellowship on Global Corporate Climate Accountability. Julia Dehm receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a Discovery Early Career Research Award and from the Victorian Legal Service Board + Commission grants program for a project on mainstreaming climate change in legal education.Nicole Rogers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Climate Realism Is a Delusion

By shooting for 3 degrees Celsius of warming, the world could slide toward a more cataclysmic 4 degrees.

This year’s Conference of the Parties, the annual United Nations meeting meant to avert catastrophic climate change, was subject to a ham-fisted metaphor. On Thursday, the Brazilian venue hosting the conference burst into flames from what was likely an electrical fire. In its 30 years, COP has frequently been a ritual in frustration and futility, ending with a set of pledges and promises that have rarely gone as far as scientists say they need to, followed by weeks of postmortem finger-pointing and self-flagellation. And yesterday, once again delegates landed on a heavily compromised text that does little to materially steer the planet off fossil fuels.Many of the fingers pointed toward an empty chair and the absence of the largest oil-and-gas producer on planet Earth (the United States). Meanwhile, delegates from drowning, subsistence-farming volcanic archipelagos in the South Pacific humbly pleaded with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia to pledge to someday stop pumping their oceans of oil, the most profitable commodity in the world. It didn’t work.“We know some of you had greater ambitions for some of the issues at hand,” COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago sheepishly told the assembly.Every year, environmental NGOs, climate scientists, concerned citizens, and government ministers alike register confusion and despair over the fact that after so many cycles of these meetings, industrial civilization erupts more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than ever before. This year, it reached a staggering new peak with 38.1 gigatons of the stuff—two orders of magnitude more than is put out by all of the volcanoes on Earth combined each year, and a pace that is virtually unprecedented in all of geological history.Even if all other emissions from fossil fuels halted tomorrow, CO2 emissions from the global food system alone could eventually push us past 2 degrees Celsius in warming, half a degree higher than the always-aspirational 1.5 degrees Celsius goal set forth in the 2016 Paris Agreement. At this point, reaching that goal would require an impossible slashing of global emissions by a quarter every year for the next four years until they reach zero. As things stand, the UN projects that current policies will result in almost 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. Unfortunately, that 1.5-degree benchmark wasn’t selected at random. As one landmark paper puts it, the “Earth may have left a safe climate state beyond 1°C global warming,” and even 1.5 degrees would possibly invite inexorable ice-sheet collapse, coral-reef die-off, and permafrost thaw.  All of this grim news has given way to a new kind of cynical resignation to this future, and a vision in which the world scales back its climate ambitions and accepts an all but permanent and prominent role for fossil fuels in the global economy. This forfeit, recently championed by Bill Gates, flies under the banner of “climate realism” or, more sunnily, “climate pragmatism.” In this view, the trade-offs between minimizing global warming and pursuing other goals for humanity are too steep, and the consequences of somewhat-checked warming will be manageable. If climate negotiators were naive about the political economy of the energy transition when COP started 30 years ago, though, then the purveyors of this kind of “pragmatism” are downright oblivious to the implications of a 3 degrees–warmer world that they’ve made conceptual peace with.If warming the planet beyond 1 degree Celsius isn’t safe, then 3 degrees is madness. Forget coral reefs: This collapse would cascade into the broader ocean as the sea succumbs to merciless heat waves, oxygen loss, and acidification, and entire ecosystems—seagrass beds, kelp forests, mangroves—fall away. On land, this vanishing act might extend to the Amazon rainforest, which—already relentlessly pared back by deforestation—could submit to a runaway drying. In the human world, migration could be measured in billions of people, as familiar rains that water staple crops depart for distant latitudes and unprecedented heat waves in eastern China and the Indus River Valley surpass the limits of human physiology. Even the U.S. Midwest would begin to see deadly hot and humid conditions, today experienced only in extraordinarily rare heatwaves in places such as the Persian Gulf and inland Pakistan.“In the United States, just 3 degrees Celsius of warming conditions in simulations tend to be hotter—when humidity is factored in—than heat waves in North Africa today,” the Purdue climate scientist Matthew Huber wrote in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “These heat waves of the future could devastate US livestock yields, if they don’t kill the animals outright.” Humans, being animals, would also be killed by the heat. One recent study showed that in a 3 degree–warmer world, deaths resulting from a week-long exceptional heat wave, like the one that struck Europe in 2003, would rival peak-COVID mortality rates, killing 32,000 people in Europe.This would be only one in a cascade of problems facing humanity. By 2030, the global demand for fresh water is expected to outstrip supplies by 40 percent, and the shortage would be made more dire in the following decades when mountain glaciers that supply drinking water to more than 2 billion people begin to vanish at the same time that underground aquifers fail to recharge. (The recurrent droughts would push farmers to draw those aquifers down faster.) Meanwhile, as flooding and hurricanes ravage the coasts, and wildfires, flooding, and severe storms strike inland, insurance markets may all but collapse—even in supposed climate refuges such as Minnesota. Erratic weather and volatile yields will drive food prices persistently higher, and communities—whether at the municipality scale or entire countries—may go bankrupt while trying to patch up battered and strained infrastructure amid higher borrowing costs and closed lines of credit. The entire financial system, including government bonds and mortgages, is premised on the idea that tomorrow will look something like today. In a world that’s 3 degrees warmer, it assuredly will not.That is, if 3 degrees warmer is indeed where we’re headed. Although many climate stories quote temperature estimates for the year 2100 down to the tenth of a degree, this betrays an unrealistic level of precision in climate forecasts. Not only is there uncertainty in our predictions about just what level of carbon emissions a specific policy might ultimately lead to, there are also uncertainties in our estimates of the climate’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases—and potentially even more worrying uncertainties about how the Earth’s carbon cycle will respond to higher CO2 and warming.  The carbon cycle involves the exceedingly complex and restless planetary give-and-take of carbon as it moves among the crust, oceans, and atmosphere, and through life itself. It could be that carbon-loaded reservoirs, such as soils and permafrost, will exhale more carbon dioxide and methane back into the atmosphere than we expect in response to warming. The uncertainty around this potentially menacing feedback only becomes greater, and more worrying, the harder we push on the Earth system. The carbon sinks that have been mopping up our mess may not comply with our continued gavage of CO2, either, as forests burst into flames and the upper ocean has its fill.All of this means that, by shooting for a limit of 3 degrees Celsius, we very well may end up warming the planet by 4 degrees instead. Indeed, the same widely quoted recent UN estimate that predicts warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius under current policies also has an uncertainty range up to a perhaps unlikely but truly unthinkable 4.6 degrees Celsius. There is “no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible,” as even the starchy World Bank has warned. “The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur.” Humanity might not roll snake eyes with the climate in this way—2.8 degrees in theory could end up meaning 2.8 degrees in practice. Still, this is an actuarial risk you wouldn’t take with a new house, much less with the only known habitable planet in the universe.COP itself has become an annual punching bag and synecdoche for climate inaction more broadly. But, obviously, we need an international body to convene and coordinate around such a dire planetary challenge. The problem is that far more powerful forces are driving global industrial civilization than can be meaningfully countervailed by a yearly meeting of bureaucrats at the UN. Today, as was the case 30 years ago, more than 80 percent of industrial civilization is powered by fossil fuels. As a species, we now have to switch treadmills going 100 mph, to a new global industrial metabolism based on sunlight, wind, water, the heat of the Earth, and the atom itself.Slowing this metabolic planetary transformation are the provincial, self-interested, and mutually incompatible demands from society, in a world carved up by economic inequality, varying vulnerabilities to future climate change, and the uneven accidents of geologic endowment. At COP30, the titans of fossil-fuel production and consumption that did bother to show up—China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Russia—still opposed a roadmap to get off fossil fuels, which was struck from the final text. And, unless compensated by the developed world, economically poor but oil-rich countries are unlikely to forgo selling the most profitable commodity in the world. Replacing fossil energy with renewables will require a level of mining that might be somewhat smaller than the footprint for fossil fuels but that many in the climate world are frankly in denial about. Tasks such as updating the U.S. grid at the scale needed for decarbonization would likely cost more than building the entire interstate highway system did, even when adjusted for inflation.At this point, it’s a clichéd refrain among more pessimistic climate commentators that humanity has never managed an energy transition before, only energy additions. (To wit, people still burn about as much wood as they ever have.) China, the world’s biggest emitter, has embarked on a mindboggling project of decarbonization, producing three-quarters of the world’s solar panels and wind turbines—but it still evaporates 1,500 Great Pyramids of Giza’s worth of coal into the atmosphere each year, four times more than the United States did at its peak.Everything you’ve read above, the relentlessly dour litany of climate threats and the meditation on the intransigence of climate politics, has also been spun—by commentators availed of the same set of facts—as a success story. China’s emissions may soon peak, or perhaps already have. And it is true that our estimates of future warming have come down, even in the past decade, from truly apocalyptic forecasts to merely disastrous levels of warming, but still outside the range experienced in the evolutionary history of Homo sapiens. For that we owe meetings such as COP no small debt of gratitude.The Earth, of course, is indifferent to what’s politically possible, and where it’s headed is still dangerous for humanity. The planet has seen entire living worlds wiped away by warming many times before, and there’s no reason to think it’s sentimental about organized industrial society. Getting emissions to near zero will be incredibly, maddeningly difficult. It will be ugly. There will be losers. Ultimately, though, there will be many more winners. Until that day, it remains the case that we are embarking on—in fact, accelerating—the biggest chemistry experiment on the planet in 66 million years, and one of the fastest derangements of the carbon cycle in the age of animal life.

Many Hoped UN Climate Talks in Brazil Would Be Historic. They May Be Remembered as a Flop

For years, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, along with many climate experts, had high hopes for the U.N. climate talks that just finished in Brazil

This year’s U.N. climate conference in Brazil had many unique aspects that could have been part of an historic outcome.COP30, as it’s called, was hosted in Belem, a city on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, a crucial regulator of climate and home to many Indigenous peoples who are both hit hard by climate change and are part of the solution. It had the heft of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, an influential and charismatic leader on the international stage known for his ability to bring people together. And encouraged by Lula’s rousing speeches in the summit’s beginning days, more than 80 nations called for a detailed road map for the world to sharply reduce the use of gas, oil and coal, the main drivers of climate change.In the end, none of that mattered.The final decision announced Saturday, which included some tangible things like an increase in money to help developing nations adapt to climate change, was overall watered-down compared to many conferences in the past decade and fell far short of many delegates' expectations. It didn't mention the words “fossil fuels,” much less include a timeline to reduce their use. Instead of being remembered as historic, the conference will likely further erode confidence in a process that many environmentalists and even some world leaders have argued isn’t up to the challenge of confronting global temperature rise, which is leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events like floods, storms and heat waves.The criticism was withering and came from many corners.“A climate decision that cannot even say ‘fossil fuels’ is not neutrality, it is complicity,” said Panama negotiator Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez. “Science has been deleted from COP30 because it offends the polluters.”Even those who saw some positives were quick to say they were looking toward the future.“Climate action is across many areas, so on the whole it is a mixed bag. They could have done much, much more,” said Lidy Nacpil, coordinator of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development.“All eyes are already turning to COP31,” added Nacpil, referring to next year's conference, which will be held in Turkey. High expectations for COP30 Saturday's final resolution was the culmination of three years of talk, from measured optimism to hoopla, about a Conference of the Parties, as the summit is known, that could restore confidence in the ability of multilateral negotiations to tackle climate change. It was even called a “COP of truth.” From the time Lula was reelected in October 2022, he began pitching his vision of hosting a climate summit for the first time in the Amazon. By 2023, the U.N. had confirmed Brazil's bid to host it in Belem. The choice of Belem, a coastal city in northeast Brazil, raised many questions, both in Brazil and in many countries, because Belem doesn't have the infrastructure of other Brazilian cities such as Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo.For Lula, that was the point: This was a chance for the world to get a taste of the Amazon, truly understand what was at stake, and a chance for thousands of Indigenous peoples, who live across the vast territory shared by many South American nations, to participate.By the time the conference began Nov. 6 with two days of world leaders' speeches, Lula was able to change the subject from Belem, in large part by laying out a vision of what the conference could be. “Earth can no longer sustain the development model based on the intensive use of fossil fuels that has prevailed over the past 200 years,” Lula said Nov. 7, adding: “The fossil fuel era is drawing to a close."Words like those, coming from the leader who has both curbed deforestation in the Amazon and unabashedly supported oil exploration in it, raised hopes among many delegates, scientists and activists. Here was Lula, the ultimate pragmatist from a major oil-producing country, which gets most of its energy for domestic uses from renewables like hydropower, pushing a major change. Previous naming of fossil fuels In late 2023, during COP28 in Dubai, the final resolution declared the world needed to “transition away” from fossil fuels. The past two years, though, nothing had been done to advance that. Indeed, instead of phasing away, greenhouse gas emissions worldwide continue to rise. Now at COP30, there was talk of a “road map” to fundamentally changing world energy systems. A few days before the talks concluded, there were signs that even Lula, arguably Brazil's most dominating political figure of the past 25 years, was tempering his expectations. In a speech Wednesday night, he made the case that climate change was an urgent threat that all people needed to pay attention to. But he was also careful to say that nations should be able to transition to renewable energies at their own pace, in line with their own capacities, and there was no intention to “impose anything on anybody." Negotiators would lose much of Thursday, as a fire at the venue forced evacuations. An outcome that many nations blasted By Friday, the European Union, along with several Latin American and Pacific Island nations and others, were flatly rejecting the first draft of a resolution that didn't identify fossil fuels as the cause of climate change or have any timeline to move away from them. “After 10 years, this process is still failing,” Maina Vakafua Talia, minister of environment for the small Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, said in a speech Friday, talking about the decade since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set international goals to limit temperature rise. After an all-nighter from Friday into Saturday, the revised resolution, which U.N. officials called the “final,” did not include a mention of fossil fuels. Environmental activists decried the influence of major oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia, which historically have fought against proposals that put a timeline on reducing oil. When delegates met Saturday afternoon for the final plenary, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago gaveled in the text while also promising to continue the discussion of fossil fuels and work with Colombia on a road map that could be shared with other countries. Technically, Brazil holds the presidency of the climate talks until the summit in Turkey next year. That was little consolation for several dozen nations that complained, including some, such as Colombia, that flatly rejected the outcome. “Thank you for your statement," do Lago would say after each one. "It will be noted in the report.”Associated Press reporters Seth Borenstein, Melina Walling and Anton Delgado contributed to this report. Peter Prengaman, AP's global climate and environment news director, was previously news director in Brazil. The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Nov. 2025

A Surprisingly Powerful Tool to Make Cities More Livable

This story was originally published by Grist and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. If you’ve spent any time on a roof, you know that it’s not especially pleasant up there—blazing in the summer, frigid and windy in the winter. Slap some solar panels up there, though, and the calculus changes: Shaded from gusts […]

This story was originally published by Grist and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. If you’ve spent any time on a roof, you know that it’s not especially pleasant up there—blazing in the summer, frigid and windy in the winter. Slap some solar panels up there, though, and the calculus changes: Shaded from gusts and excessive sunlight, crops can proliferate, a technique known as rooftop agrivoltaics. And because that hardware provides shade, evaporation is reduced, resulting in big water savings. Plus, all that greenery insulates the top floor, reducing energy costs. Long held in opposition to one another, urban areas are embracing elements of the rural world as they try to produce more of their own food, in community gardens on the ground and agrivoltaics up above. In an increasingly chaotic climate, urban agriculture could improve food security, generate clean electricity, reduce local temperatures, provide refuges for pollinators, and improve mental and physical health for urbanites, among other benefits.  “This summer we had cucumbers that were the size of baseball bats, that were perfectly suited to the green roof.” With relatively cheap investments in food production—especially if they’ve got empty lots sitting around—cities can solve a bunch of problems at once. Quezon City in the Philippines, for instance, has transformed unused land into more than 300 gardens and 10 farms, in the process training more than 4,000 urban farmers. Detroit is speckled with thousands of gardens and farms. In the Big Apple, the nonprofit Project Petals is turning vacant lots in underresourced neighborhoods into oases. “You have some places in New York City where there’s not a green space for 5 miles,” said Alicia White, executive director and founder of the group. “And we know that green spaces help to reduce stress. We know they help to combat loneliness, and we know at this point that they help to improve our respiratory and heart health.” That makes these community spaces an especially potent climate solution, because it’s getting ever harder for people to stay healthy in cities due to the urban heat island effect, in which the built environment absorbs the sun’s energy and releases it throughout the night. Baking day after day during prolonged heat waves, the human body can’t get relief, an especially dangerous scenario for the elderly. But verdant patches reduce temperatures by releasing water vapor—essentially sweating into the neighborhood—and provide shade. At the same time, as climate change makes rainfall more extreme, urban gardens help soak up deluges, reducing the risk of flooding.  Oddly enough, while the oven-like effect is perilous for people, it can benefit city farms. On rooftops, scientists are finding that some crops, like leafy greens, thrive under the shade of solar panels, but others—especially warm-season crops like zucchini and watermelon—grow beautifully in harsh full-sun conditions. “Most of our high-value crops benefit from the urban heat island effect, because it extends their growing season. So growing food in the city is actually quite logical,” said horticulturist Jennifer Bousselot, who studies rooftop agrivoltaics at Colorado State University. “This summer we had cucumbers that were the size of baseball bats, that were perfectly suited to the green roof.” Plants grow on a roof at Colorado State University.Kevin Samuelson/CSU Spur That’s not all that’s thriving up there. Bousselot and her team are also growing a trio of Indigenous crops: corn, beans, and squash. The beans climb the corn stalks—and microbes in their roots fix nitrogen, enriching the soil—while the squash leaves shade the soil and reduce evaporation, saving water. In addition, they’ve found that saffron—an extremely expensive and difficult-to-harvest spice—tolerates the shade of rooftop solar panels. Water leaving the soil also cools the panels, increasing their efficiency. “We’re essentially creating a microclimate, very much like a greenhouse, which is one of the most optimal conditions for most of our food crops to grow in,” Bousselot said. “But it’s not a system that needs heating or cooling or ventilation, like a greenhouse does.”  Growers might even use the extreme conditions of a rooftop for another advantage. Plants that aren’t shaded by solar panels produce “secondary metabolites” in response to the heat, wind, and constant sunlight that can stress them. These are often antioxidants, which a grower might be able to tease out of a medicinal plant like chamomile—at least in theory. “We are sort of exploring the breadth of what’s possible up there,” Bousselot said, “and using those unique environments to come up with crops that are hopefully even more valuable to the producer.” Down on the ground in New York City, Project Petals has seen a similar bonanza. Whereas agricultural regions cultivate vast fields and orchards of monocrops, like grains or fruit trees, an urban farm can pack a bunch of different foods into a tight space. “If you could grow it in rural areas, you could grow it in the city as well,” White said. “We’ve grown squash, snap peas, lemongrass. In our gardens, I’ve seen just about everything.” Workers tend to crops in Queens, New York.Project Petals That sort of diversification means a cornucopia of nutritious foods flows into the community. (Lots of different species also provide different kinds of flowers for pollinators—and the more pollinators, the better the crops and native plants in the area can reproduce, creating a virtuous cycle.) That’s invaluable because in the United States, access to proper nutrition is extremely unequal: In Mississippi, for example, 30 percent of people live in low-income areas with low access to good food, compared to 4 percent in New York. This leads to “silent hunger,” in which people have access to enough calories—often from ultraprocessed foods purchased at corner stores—but not enough nutrients. Underserved neighborhoods need better access to supermarkets, of course, but rooftop and community gardens can provide fresh food and help educate people about improving their diets. “It’s not only about growing our own veggies in the city, but actually too it’s a hook to change habits,” said Nikolas Galli, a postdoctoral researcher who studies urban agriculture at the Polytechnic University of Milan. In a study published last month in the journal Earth’s Future, Galli modeled what this change could look like on a wide scale in São Paulo, Brazil. In a theoretical scenario in which the city turned its feasible free space—around 14 square miles—into gardens and farms, every couple of acres of food production could provide healthy sustenance to more than 600 people. Though the scenario isn’t particularly realistic, given the scale of change required, “it’s interesting to think about that, if we use more or less all the areas that we have, we could provide the missing fruits and vegetables for 13 to 21 percent of the population of the city,” Galli said. “Every square meter that you do can have a function, can be useful to increase the access to healthy food for someone.” Without urgent action here, silent hunger will only grow worse as urban populations explode around the world: By 2050, 70 percent of humans will live in cities. Urban farms could go a long way toward helping feed all those people, and could indeed benefit from rural farmers making the move to metropolises. “They’re able to pass it on to the community members like me from New York City, who maybe didn’t have the expertise,” White said, “and helping them to find their way in learning how to garden and learning how to grow their own food.” Whether it’s on top of a roof or tucked between apartment buildings, the urban garden is a simple yet uniquely powerful tool for solving a slew of environmental and human health problems. “They’re serving as spaces where people can grow, where they can learn, and they can help to fight climate change,” White said. “It’s so good to see that people are starting to come around to the fact that a garden space, and a green space, can actually make a bigger impact than just on that community overall.” 

Indigenous People Reflect on the Meaning of Their Participation in COP30 Climate Talks

At United Nations climate talks billed widely as having a special focus on Indigenous people, those people themselves have mixed feelings about whether the highlight reel matches reality

BELEM, Brazil (AP) — Indigenous people filled the streets, paddled the waterways and protested at the heart of the venue to make their voices heard during the United Nations climate talks that were supposed to give them a voice like never before at the annual conference. As the talks, called COP30, concluded Saturday in Belem, Brazil, Indigenous people reflected on what the conference meant to them and whether they were heard. Brazilian leaders had high hopes that the summit, taking place in the Amazon, would empower the people who inhabit the land and protect the biodiversity of the world’s largest rainforest, which helps stave off climate change as its trees absorb carbon pollution that heats the planet.Many Indigenous people who attended the talks felt strengthened by the solidarity with tribes from other countries and some appreciated small wins in the final outcome. But for many, the talks fell short on representation, ambition and true action on climate issues affecting Indigenous people.“This was a COP where we were visible but not empowered,” said Thalia Yarina Cachimuel, a Kichwa-Otavalo member of A Wisdom Keepers Delegation, a group of Indigenous people from around the world. Some language wins but nothing on fossil fuels Taily Terena, an Indigenous woman from the Terena nation in Brazil, said she was happy because the text for the first time mentioned those rights explicitly.But Mindahi Bastida, an Otomí-Toltec member of A Wisdom Keepers Delegation, said countries should have pushed harder for agreements on how to phase out fuels like oil, gas and coal “and not to see nature as merchandise, but to see it as sacred.” Several nations pushed for a road map to curtail use of fossil fuels, which when burned release greenhouse gases that warm the planet. Saturday's final decision left out any mention of fossil fuels, leaving many countries disappointed. Brazil also launched a financial mechanism that countries could donate to, which was supposed to help incentivize nations with lots of forest to keep those ecosystems intact.Although the initiative received monetary pledges from a few countries, the project and the idea of creating a market for carbon are false solutions that "don't stop pollution, they just move it around,” said Jacob Johns, a Wisdom Keeper of the Akimel O’Otham and Hopi nations.“They hand corporations a license to keep drilling, keep burning, keep destroying, so long as they can point to an offset written on paper. It's the same colonial logic dressed up as climate policy," Johns said.“What we have seen at this COP is a focus on symbolic presence rather than enabling the full and effective participation of Indigenous Peoples," Sara Olsvig, chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, wrote in a message after the conference concluded.Edson Krenak, Brazil manager for Indigenous rights group Cultural Survival and member of the Krenak people, didn't think negotiators did enough to visit forests or understand the communities living there. He also didn't believe the 900 Indigenous people given access to the main venue was enough.Sônia Guajajara, Brazil's minister of Indigenous peoples, who is Indigenous herself, framed the convention differently. “It is undeniable that this is the largest and best COP in terms of Indigenous participation and protagonism,” she said. Protests showed power of Indigenous solidarity While the decisions by delegates left some Indigenous attendees feeling dismissed, many said they felt empowered by participating in demonstrations outside the venue. When the summit began on Nov. 10, Paulo André Paz de Lima, an Amazonian Indigenous leader, thought his tribe and others didn’t have access to COP30. During the first week, he and a group of demonstrators broke through the barrier to get inside the venue. Authorities quickly intervened and stopped their advancement.De Lima said that act helped Indigenous people amplify their voices.“After breaking the barrier, we were able to enter COP, get into the Blue Zone and express our needs,” he said, referring to the official negotiation area. “We got closer (to the negotiations), got more visibility."The meaning of protest at this COP wasn't just to get the attention of non-Indigenous people, it also was intended as a way for Indigenous people to commune with each other. On the final night before an agreement was reached, a small group with banners walked inside the venue, protesting instances of violence and environmental destruction from the recent killing of a Guarani youth on his own territory to the proposed Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project in Canada.“We have to come together to show up, you know? Because they need to hear us,” Leandro Karaí of the Guarani people of South America said of the solidarity among Indigenous groups. “When we’re together with others, we’re stronger.“They sang to the steady beat of a drum, locked arms in a line and marched down the long hall of the COP venue to the exit, breaking the silence in the corridors as negotiators remained deadlocked inside. Then they emerged, voices raised, under a yellow sky.The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find the AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Nov. 2025

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