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Thanks to termite tents, California is top U.S. emitter of a planet-warming pesticide

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Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Despite its aggressive reputation for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, California releases more of a climate-warming pesticide than all other states combined, most of it from homes fumigated for termites, according to a study published Wednesday.The termite killing gas — sulfuryl flouride — has been found to be 4,800 times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping heat. When a team of Johns Hopkins scientists set out to map exactly where the gas was being released, they were startled to find that California generated as much as 12% of global emissions of the synthetic fumigant.“The results were puzzling because the emissions were all coming from one place,” said Scot Miller, Johns Hopkins assistant professor of environmental health and engineering. “Other greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are found everywhere across the U.S. On our sulfuryl fluoride map, only California lit up like a Christmas tree.”As much as 85% of U.S. emissions of the chemical come from California, mostly from Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties, the scientists found.The chemical’s primary use is the fumigation of homes and other structures, where a building is covered with an airtight tent and gas is pumped in to kill termites and other pests. The brightly colored tents have become a common sight in Southern California neighborhoods.Within the first two hours of a tent being opened, however, 90% of the gas escapes into the atmosphere, where it stays for about 40 years. (Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, remains in the atmosphere for up to 1,000 years.)The fumigant is also used to protect grains, nuts and dried fruits from pests after they are harvested. A fumigation worker stands on the roof of a Huntington Beach church that has been covered with a fumigation tent. (Robert Lachman / Los Angeles Times ) The new study is not the first time the pesticide has faced scrutiny.In 2022, environmental groups filed a petition with the state requesting that use of the gas be phased out.The Center for Biological Diversity and Californians for Pesticide Reform, a coalition of 190 groups, said California was the world’s largest consumer of sulfuryl fluoride, and used 3 million pounds in 2021. The climate impact of using that much of the pesticide, the petition said, was equivalent to the carbon dioxide released from about 1 million vehicles a year.“Pesticide use in California has a significant, yet overlooked, impact on state greenhouse gas emissions,” the petition said.The groups’ petition also detailed the dangers to human health of the odorless pesticide, which works by attacking the nervous system. At least 16 deaths have been blamed on sulfuryl fluoride since 1994.California Department of Public Health scientists detailed in a 2019 report how some families had become ill from what remained of the gas even after the home was cleared for reentry.Douglas Products, which sells the pesticide under the brand name Vikane, opposed the petition. The company noted that most of the deaths happened after illegal or unauthorized entry into the homes while they were still tented.The Missouri company, which is owned by private equity firm Brightstar Capital Partners, also said the chemical had a “negligible” impact on climate because it makes up only 0.035% of total greenhouse gas emissions.The California Air Resources Board denied the environmental groups’ petition in February 2023, saying the agency lacked “sufficient information” to determine whether the pesticide should be phased out. The board said it would continue to study the issue.Use of the gas surged after sales of another fumigant called methyl bromide were sharply curtailed because of the harm it caused to the ozone layer.In the study published Wednesday, Miller and his colleagues analyzed 15,000 air samples collected between 2015 and 2019 by NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory scientists. They factored in wind speed, direction and other variables to trace the chemicals to where they were released.They noted that one caveat of their work was that there are currently no air monitors that would detect the gas in Florida, where the pesticide is also used to control termites.In an interview, Dylan Gaeta, a doctoral candidate at Johns Hopkins who led the study, said that the climate-warming impact of California’s annual release of sulfuryl fluoride is almost as large as what the state has saved on average annually in greenhouse gas emissions from measures required by AB 32. The 2006 law has lowered emissions through improvements such as vehicles that get better gas mileage, a switch to electric cars and more renewable power.Gaeta pointed out that pest control companies are already offering alternatives to the gas, including orange oil treatments, that are safer for humans and don’t have the same planet-warming effects.“For most greenhouse gases, California has been very intentional about how it’s going to reduce emissions,” Gaeta said. “This one has slipped under the radar.” Newsletter Toward a more sustainable California Get Boiling Point, our newsletter exploring climate change, energy and the environment, and become part of the conversation — and the solution. You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.

Despite its environmental reputation, California emits more of a climate-warming pesticide than all other states combined, mostly from termite fumigation.

Despite its aggressive reputation for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, California releases more of a climate-warming pesticide than all other states combined, most of it from homes fumigated for termites, according to a study published Wednesday.

The termite killing gas — sulfuryl flouride — has been found to be 4,800 times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping heat.

When a team of Johns Hopkins scientists set out to map exactly where the gas was being released, they were startled to find that California generated as much as 12% of global emissions of the synthetic fumigant.

“The results were puzzling because the emissions were all coming from one place,” said Scot Miller, Johns Hopkins assistant professor of environmental health and engineering. “Other greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are found everywhere across the U.S. On our sulfuryl fluoride map, only California lit up like a Christmas tree.”

As much as 85% of U.S. emissions of the chemical come from California, mostly from Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties, the scientists found.

The chemical’s primary use is the fumigation of homes and other structures, where a building is covered with an airtight tent and gas is pumped in to kill termites and other pests. The brightly colored tents have become a common sight in Southern California neighborhoods.

Within the first two hours of a tent being opened, however, 90% of the gas escapes into the atmosphere, where it stays for about 40 years. (Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, remains in the atmosphere for up to 1,000 years.)

The fumigant is also used to protect grains, nuts and dried fruits from pests after they are harvested.

A man stands on the roof of a building that has been covered with a fumigation tent.

A fumigation worker stands on the roof of a Huntington Beach church that has been covered with a fumigation tent.

(Robert Lachman / Los Angeles Times )

The new study is not the first time the pesticide has faced scrutiny.

In 2022, environmental groups filed a petition with the state requesting that use of the gas be phased out.

The Center for Biological Diversity and Californians for Pesticide Reform, a coalition of 190 groups, said California was the world’s largest consumer of sulfuryl fluoride, and used 3 million pounds in 2021. The climate impact of using that much of the pesticide, the petition said, was equivalent to the carbon dioxide released from about 1 million vehicles a year.

“Pesticide use in California has a significant, yet overlooked, impact on state greenhouse gas emissions,” the petition said.

The groups’ petition also detailed the dangers to human health of the odorless pesticide, which works by attacking the nervous system. At least 16 deaths have been blamed on sulfuryl fluoride since 1994.

California Department of Public Health scientists detailed in a 2019 report how some families had become ill from what remained of the gas even after the home was cleared for reentry.

Douglas Products, which sells the pesticide under the brand name Vikane, opposed the petition. The company noted that most of the deaths happened after illegal or unauthorized entry into the homes while they were still tented.

The Missouri company, which is owned by private equity firm Brightstar Capital Partners, also said the chemical had a “negligible” impact on climate because it makes up only 0.035% of total greenhouse gas emissions.

The California Air Resources Board denied the environmental groups’ petition in February 2023, saying the agency lacked “sufficient information” to determine whether the pesticide should be phased out. The board said it would continue to study the issue.

Use of the gas surged after sales of another fumigant called methyl bromide were sharply curtailed because of the harm it caused to the ozone layer.

In the study published Wednesday, Miller and his colleagues analyzed 15,000 air samples collected between 2015 and 2019 by NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory scientists. They factored in wind speed, direction and other variables to trace the chemicals to where they were released.

They noted that one caveat of their work was that there are currently no air monitors that would detect the gas in Florida, where the pesticide is also used to control termites.

In an interview, Dylan Gaeta, a doctoral candidate at Johns Hopkins who led the study, said that the climate-warming impact of California’s annual release of sulfuryl fluoride is almost as large as what the state has saved on average annually in greenhouse gas emissions from measures required by AB 32. The 2006 law has lowered emissions through improvements such as vehicles that get better gas mileage, a switch to electric cars and more renewable power.

Gaeta pointed out that pest control companies are already offering alternatives to the gas, including orange oil treatments, that are safer for humans and don’t have the same planet-warming effects.

“For most greenhouse gases, California has been very intentional about how it’s going to reduce emissions,” Gaeta said. “This one has slipped under the radar.”

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AI is guzzling energy for slop content – could it be reimagined to help the climate?

Some experts think AI could be used to lower, rather than raise, planet-heating emissions – others aren’t so convinced Cop30: click here for full Guardian coverage of the climate talks in BrazilArtificial intelligence is often associated with ludicrous amounts of electricity, and therefore planet-heating emissions, expended to create nonsensical or misleading slop that is of meagre value to humanity.Some AI advocates at a major UN climate summit are posing an alternative view, though – what if AI could help us solve, rather than worsen, the climate crisis? Continue reading...

Artificial intelligence is often associated with ludicrous amounts of electricity, and therefore planet-heating emissions, expended to create nonsensical or misleading slop that is of meagre value to humanity.Some AI advocates at a major UN climate summit are posing an alternative view, though – what if AI could help us solve, rather than worsen, the climate crisis?The “AI for good” argument has been made repeatedly at the Cop30 talks in Belém, Brazil, with supporters arguing AI can be used to lower, rather than raise, emissions through a series of efficiencies that can spread through areas of our lives such as food, transport and energy that cause much of the pollution dangerously heating our planet.Last week, a coalition of groups, UN bodies and the Brazilian government unveiled the AI Climate Institute, a new global initiative aimed at fostering AI “as a tool of empowerment” in developing countries to help them tackle environmental problems.Proponents say the program, in time, will help educate countries on how to use AI in an array of ways to bring down emissions, such as better optimizing public transit, organizing agricultural systems and recalibrating the energy grid so that renewables are deployed at the right times.Even weather forecasting, including the mapping of impending climate-driven disasters such as flooding and wildfires, can be improved in this way, according to Maria João Sousa, executive director, Climate Change AI, one of the groups behind the new initiative.“Very few places in the world actually run numerical weather prediction models because numerical weather prediction models are very compute-intensive,” she said. “I definitely believe (AI) is a positive force to accelerate a lot of these things.”AI can help monitor emissions, biodiversity and generally see what is going on, said Lorenzo Saa, chief sustainability officer at Clarity AI, who is also attending Cop30.“You can really start looking at where the problem is,” he said. “Then you can predict, and the prediction is actually short-term and long-term. You can now predict floods in the next week, but you can actually figure out sea level rise and things like that.”Saa admitted there are legitimate concerns about the governance of AI and its impact upon society but, on balance, the effect on the environment could be positive. In June, a report by the London School of Economics had an unexpectedly sunny estimate – AI could reduce global greenhouse gases by 3.2bn to 5.4bn tonnes in the next decade, even factoring in its vast energy consumption.“People already make dumb decisions about energy, such as running air conditioning for too long,” Saa said. “How much of our phone has bad stuff for us? I think a lot. How many hours do we spend on Instagram?“My view of this is that society is going to go in this direction. We need to think about how we are not destroying the planet with heating and we’re actually trying to make sure that there’s a net benefit.”Some other experts and environmental advocates are not convinced. The huge computational power of AI, particularly generative AI, is fueling a boom in data centers in countries such as the US that is gobbling up a huge amount of electricity and water, even in places prone to droughts, pushing up electricity bills in some places as a result.The climate cost of this AI gold rush, driven by companies such as Google, Meta and OpenAI, is large and set to get larger – a recent Cornell University study found that by 2030, the current rate of AI growth in the US will add up to 44m tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, the equivalent of adding 10m gasoline cars to the road or the entire annual emissions of Norway.“People have this techno-utopian view of AI that it will save us from the climate crisis,” said Jean Su, a climate campaigner at the Center for Biological Diversity. “We know what will save us from the climate crisis – phasing out fossil fuels. It’s not AI.”Also, while AI can be used to drive efficiencies to lower emissions, the same sort of tools can be used to optimize other areas – including fossil fuel production. A report last month by Wood Mackenzie estimated that AI could help unlock an extra trillion barrels of oil – a scenario which, if the energy markets were to be amenable to such a thing, would obliterate any hopes of restraining catastrophic climate breakdown.Natascha Hospedales, lead lawyer for AI at Client Earth, said there is some merit to the “AI for good” argument, but that it is a “really small niche” within a much larger industry that is much more focused on maximizing profits.“There is some truth that AI could help the developing world, but much of this is in the early stage and some of it is hypothetical – it’s just not there yet,” she said. “Overall we are very, very far from a situation where AI for good balances out the negative environmental impact of AI.“The environmental cost of AI is already alarming and I don’t see data center growth winding down any time soon. A small percentage of AI is used for good and 99% of it is companies like Google and Meta lining their pockets with money, damaging the environment and human rights as they do it.”

‘Damned if we do but completely stuffed if we don’t’: heatwaves will worsen longer net zero is delayed

A new study suggests heatwaves will not revert back towards preindustrial conditions for at least 1,000 years after emissions target reachedSign up for climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s free Clear Air newsletter hereHeatwaves will become hotter, longer and more frequent the later net zero emissions is reached globally, new research suggests.Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, simulated how heatwaves would respond over the next 1,000 years, examining the differences for each five-year delay in reaching net zero between 2030 and 2060. Continue reading...

Heatwaves will become hotter, longer and more frequent the later net zero emissions is reached globally, new research suggests.Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, simulated how heatwaves would respond over the next 1,000 years, examining the differences for each five-year delay in reaching net zero between 2030 and 2060.The research, published in the journal Environmental Research Climate, found that for countries near the equator, delaying net zero until 2050 would result in heatwave events that break current historical records at least once yearly.The study also suggests that heatwaves will not revert back towards preindustrial conditions for at least a millennium after net zero is reached, which “critically challenges the general belief that conditions after net zero will begin to improve for near future generations”.“The thing with net zero and heat waves is: we’re damned if we do, but we’re completely stuffed if we don’t,” the study’s lead author, Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University, said. “We’re already locked into a certain amount of warming.” Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletterStabilising global heating at 1.5C or 2C would still result in impacts “that we haven’t yet experienced, including worse heatwaves”, she said. “The thing is, if we delay net zero – up to 30 years and even longer – those impacts are only going to get worse. We’re already locked into some, but the longer we leave net zero, the worse it’s going to be.”“[In Australia] you have the Coalition basically saying: net zero is useless, it’s pointless, it’s not worth it, it’s going to cost us too much money,” she said. “Well, it’s going to cost us even more if we don’t even get to net zero by 2050.”“The silver lining to this sort of study, if there is one, is that we have time to adapt … so when these heatwaves occur, we’re as prepared for them as possible,” she said. “We know the impacts of heatwaves – there’s so much understanding about the health impacts, ecosystem impacts, impacts on financial services.“What those adaptation strategies look like – that remains to be seen,” she said. “Those conversations can start now.”The modelling was done using Australia’s global climate simulator, known as Access, and defined a heatwave as at least three consecutive days where temperatures are above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature.skip past newsletter promotionSign up to Clear Air AustraliaAdam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisisPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.after newsletter promotionProf David Karoly, a decorated climate change scientist and councillor with the Climate Council, who was not involved in the research, said the findings were not surprising.“There is a clear relationship between the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global mean temperatures,” he said.Karoly added that the study’s results were interesting but one caveat was that there were uncertainties in the modelling relating to potentially important processes such as rainfall changes, because the geographical representation of Australia and other regions in the Access model was of a lower resolution than for other climate simulators.

The birth of the climate doula

In Florida, a new pilot program teaches doulas how to prepare pregnant people for hurricanes, flooding, and extreme heat — addressing a growing climate and maternal health crisis.

In the days leading up to Hurricane Irma’s landfall in September 2017, Esther Louis made preparations to flee Florida with her husband and four children. The Category 4 Hurricane was expected to hit the Florida Keys and make it’s way up the state, posing a risk to millions of residents. One of those residents was a client of Louis’ who was nine months pregnant and living in a home that the Miami-based doula feared was in too poor of condition to withstand the storm.  As a doula, Louis was trained to provide holistic care to her client, anticipating all the factors that may affect her health. She worried about how the stress of an impending hurricane and evacuation could impact her client’s pregnancy. So she offered to escort her client and her family toward Georgia, where Louis was headed and where her client had relatives.  The caravan of two families departed together, inching their way in evacuation traffic to the Georgia border. What would have been an eight hour drive took 24 hours. “It was stressful,” Louis said. Her client started to experience Braxton Hicks contractions which can be caused by stress. At times they would switch drivers so she could provide emotional support to her client, who was worried about all that could go wrong on the drive. “Sometimes people go to the worst possible outcome but I’m like, ‘We’re going to get there, OK? We’re going to work it out.’” The experience was one of many instances in Louis’ career where the worsening climate crisis had complicated a client’s birthing journey. She realized that if doulas like herself had proper training on how to communicate the risks of hurricane season, flooding and even extreme heat to their clients, they would be better prepared in the event of a disaster like Irma. Read Next How climate change endangers mothers and children Zoya Teirstein They would also be filling an important information gap that could protect pregnancies, particularly for Black people, who have a higher climate risk and higher maternal mortality rates.  Over the past decade, a growing body of research has linked environmental threats like extreme heat and wildfire smoke to an uptick in stillbirths, premature births and low-birth weights. These factors also cause health problems for pregnant people, including an association with developing preeclampsia, a high blood pressure condition that can be deadly. More recently, studies have linked climate-related disasters with higher rates of maternal mental health issues like postpartum depression.   So in 2024, after years of providing some of this training herself to doulas in the Miami-Dade area, Louis partnered with Dr. Cheryl Holder, cofounder of Florida Clinicians for Climate Action, a nonprofit that seeks to teach health professionals how to incorporate climate change into their work. They won a grant that would help them develop a curriculum and training known as the Doula C-Hot program, to teach doulas how to assess the climate risk of their clients and help them better prepare for future climate threats. If the pilot is successful it could serve as a blueprint for how to train doulas across the country as climate educators.  A survey conducted by Louis and other advocacy groups focused on maternal health found that doulas, who provide emotional and physical support to pregnant people, were already seeing the everyday risks the changing climate posed to their clients’ pregnancies and doing their best to help them cope.  In New Orleans, doulas have shown up at emergency shelters to figure out what people need to safely feed their infants when access to sterile water needed for infant formula isn’t always available or places to privately breastfeed can be hard to find. And in Philadelphia, doulas are playing an important role in educating patients on environmental exposures to contaminants like lead or air pollution.  Some doulas, like Houston-based Sierra Sankofa, have even developed disaster planning workshops aimed at pregnant people and families with young children that can help them better prepare for staying warm in the winter and cool in the summer. She’s covered topics like how to know if breast milk is still safe if the power has gone out and how to sanitize bottles with no electricity.  Read Next Climate disasters can alter kids’ brains — before they’re even born Kate Yoder But while many doulas are already helping their patients through climate-related disasters, the survey identified another trend: 95 percent of them wanted more training and resources to help pregnant people deal with environmental threats and hazards.  So far the pilot program in Florida, which has been running for almost a year, has trained 12 doulas on the impacts of climate change on pregnancy and maternal health. It follows a model developed by Holder, a collaborator on the project, who similarly trained clinicians to understand climate health risks. She wanted to focus her efforts on reaching pregnant people, particularly from the marginalized populations she already works with as a doctor.  “Where else should we start, other than with pregnant folks? That’s two lives, the next generation,” she said. “And if we can’t learn lessons to save the newborn, the unborn and the mom, how are we in society going to do anything?” She knew doulas could be more effective in that work, due to the close relationships they develop with their patients and the time they spend with them. They also conduct home visits and are able to understand more holistically what may be impacting a pregnant person’s health.  Nationally, doulas are being recognized for their additive care, with many states passing legislation in recent years to cover their services under Medicaid in order to improve birth outcomes, particularly for women of color.  Read Next ‘How did we miss this for so long?’: The link between extreme heat and preterm birth Virginia Gewin As part of their training with the project, the doulas work with their clients to gauge their preparedness, said Louis, who helped develop the assessment tool. They ask them questions like do they have an air conditioning unit? Or someone they can borrow $50 from in case of an emergency? Do they have a place to go if a disaster hits?  Depending on their answers, the doulas are then able to offer advice, like where to find a cooling center, or resources including portable air conditioners for those without AC. They also help their clients do things like look up whether they live in a flood zone, and assist them in developing plans to prepare for a hurricane or other natural disaster. They then reassess their patients after these climate-focused meetings to understand if they are now better prepared to deal with heat or hurricanes during their pregnancies. So far they’ve worked with over 40 clients. If the pilot program is successful, they hope to build out the tools and training to make it accessible beyond Florida.  Already they are thinking of ways to reach more pregnant people, said Zainab Jah, a  researcher evaluating the program. For one, they would like to expand the languages of their materials, which are in English. In the parts of Miami-Dade and Broward County where they work, there are communities who speak Haitian Creole and Spanish. Some of their doulas are able to translate, but they’d like to focus on language equity as they grow the program.  Meanwhile, other models are being developed. In Oregon, Nurturely, an advocacy group that focuses on perinatal equity, or improving pregnancy outcomes, is working on a similar train-the-trainer model set to launch in 2026, which aims to expand the knowledge of birthworkers around wildfire season and wildfire smoke. “The perinatal period is a very delicate period. So there are niche needs and preparation for people in that category,” said Aver Yakubu, a program director with the organization.  Read Next Four lost pregnancies. Five weeks of IVF injections. One storm. Zoya Teirstein & Jessica Kutz, The 19th Many of the doulas Yakubu has spoken to in the state are aware of the dangers of wildfires, but “they don’t know where to start or what to say to their patients,” she said. This training would aim to fill that information void and connect clients to resources. In Oregon, for example, pregnant Medicaid patients can use their coverage to pay for things like air conditioners and air purifiers, which can buffer them from the effects of heat and smoke.  Still, there are limitations to using doulas to reach those most socioeconomically vulnerable to the climate crisis. Doula care is expensive, and while Florida can reimburse doulas under the state’s Medicaid program, it’s been difficult in practice for doulas to qualify and receive payment. In Texas, where Sankofa works, she said the current Medicaid reimbursements leave out community-based doulas who specifically help marginalized groups by only recognizing certain certifications. Many community-based doulas have received training outside of those certifying bodies and are holistically meeting the needs of their clients, she argues. She’s advocating to change the law to allow for a broader definition of who could meet those guidelines.  But even if there is progress on improving doula coverage, the future of Medicaid itself is up in the air. A majority of the clients being reached by the Florida pilot program are on Medicaid, and nationally, the program covers 41 percent of all births. But with the impending cuts to the program pushed through under the Trump administration, coverage could dwindle.  “I think that’s the biggest issue right now,” Jah said. “I think we’re just all actively in the space of trying to learn from one another and brainstorm to figure out what can be done. But I think that’s going to be a huge barrier.” While figuring out some of the logistical and financial obstacles will be difficult, Holder believes the training they are providing doulas is crucial to the health of pregnant people in a state where climate change is wreaking havoc.  “I would really love to see this program fully tested and expanded and incorporated in general medical care,” she said. “This is the new environment we live in.” This story was originally published by Grist with the headline The birth of the climate doula on Nov 16, 2025.

As Nations Push for More Ambition at Climate Talks, Chairman Says They May Get It

At the halfway point of annual United Nations climate negotiations in Brazil, it appears the talks may do more than just focus on implementing past promises, as some observers had expected

Throw that out the window.The urgency of climate change is causing some negotiators to push for more big-picture action — on weak plans to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases, on too little money to help nations wracked by climate change, on putting teeth into phasing out coal, oil and gas. Because of that pressure to do more — including from Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — the diplomat chairing the talks said Saturday he'll consider a big-picture, end-of-negotiations communiqué, sometimes known as a decision or cover text.“I think things have changed, which is a very good thing,” said veteran observer Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity. “So I think there’s momentum that we will get some type of decision text, and our hope is that in particular there’s going to be some commitment on phasing out fossil fuels.”“I would say that what’s at stake now is probably higher than the last several COPs because you’re looking at an ambition gap,″ said former Philippine negotiator Jasper Inventor, international program director at Greenpeace International. “There’s a lot of expectation, there’s a lot of excitement here, but there’s also a lot of political signals that’s been sent by President Lula.”“We’re at the middle of the COP, and at the middle of COP is usually where the negotiators stare each other eye-to-eye. It’s almost like a staring contest,” Inventor said. “But next week, this is where the negotiations need to happen, where political decisions are made by the ministers.”Because this process stems from the Paris climate Agreement, which is mostly voluntary, these end statements grab headlines and set global tone but have limited power. The last few COP end statements have made still-unfulfilled pledges for rich countries to give money to poor nations to cope with climate change and the world to phase out fossil fuels.Key among those issues is the idea of telling nations to go back to the drawing board on what experts consider inadequate climate-fighting plans submitted this year.In the 2015 Paris agreement, which is being celebrated here on its 10th anniversary, nations are supposed to have submitted climate-fighting, emissions-curbing plans every five years. So far 116 of 193 countries have filed theirs this year, but what they promised isn’t much. United Nations and Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists, calculates that these new pledges barely reduced future projections for Earth's warming.Even if the world does all it promises, Earth would be about seven-tenths of a degree Celsius (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, the groups estimated.So small island nations, led by Palau, asked that this conference confront the gap between what’s planned in national pledges and what’s needed to keep the world from hitting the temperature danger zone.That's not on the agenda for these talks. Nor are specific details on how to fulfill last year’s pledge by rich nations to provide $300 billion annually in climate financial aid.So when nations early on wanted to address these issues, COP President André Corrêa do Lago, a veteran Brazilian diplomat, set up special small confabs to try to decide if the controversial topics should be discussed. On Saturday, the conference punted the issue to the incoming ministers.“The parties will decide how they want to proceed,” do Lago said at a Saturday evening news conference. Given what countries are saying and past history that usually means a final end-of-COP message to the world, several experts said. In a casual exchange with a reporter about how the conference is going, COP President do Lago said: “Eh, could be better but not as bad it could be.” Momentum to phase out fossil fuels U.N. General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock, the former German foreign minister who has been to 10 of these sessions, told The Associated Press Saturday morning before the evening's session that she saw “new momentum” in Belem.“We can fight the climate crisis only together if we commit to a strong mitigation target,” she said. “This means also transitioning away from fossil fuels, investing into renewable energy.”Two years ago in Dubai, the world agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels,” but last year no mention of that was made and there've been no details on how or when to do this. Baerbock hailed as crucial Lula's call during the Leaders' Summit last week for “a road map for humanity to overcome, in a just and planned way, its dependence on fossil fuels, reverse deforestation, and mobilize the resources needed to do so.”“I think what we have before us are the ingredients of a potential high-ambition package for the outcome of this conference,” Iskander Erzini Vernoit, executive director of the Moroccan IMAL Initiative for Climate and Development, said. Getting Indigenous voices heard Indigenous groups breached and blockaded the venue twice this week with demands to be further included in the U.N. talks, despite this conference’s promotion as the “Indigenous Peoples’ COP.” The COP so far “was a testament that unfortunately, for Indigenous peoples to be heard, they actually need to be disruptive,” said Aya Khourshid, an Egyptian-Palestinian member of A Wisdom Keepers Delegation, a group of Indigenous people from around the world.Indigenous people are putting a lot of energy “to be in this space but to not necessarily be given a platform or voice at the decision table with the ministers and those who are in power,” said Whaia, a Ngāti Kahungunu Wisdom Keeper. “There's an imbalance here at COP30," she said. “There's the privileged and the not-so lucky who don't get a say on what's actually going on in their own home.”The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.This story was produced as part of the 2025 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organized by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Oct. 2025

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