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Mosquito-borne virus spread at 'unprecedented' levels in L.A. County. Climate change may make things worse

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Monday, September 30, 2024

Climate change is exacerbating the risk of potentially dangerous mosquito-borne diseases in California — threatening to turn more of those annoying-but-harmless bites into severe illnesses, experts say. California already grapples with West Nile virus, a potentially deadly disease that was first detected in the state about two decades ago. But officials are now warning of a potential new foe: dengue, a viral infection that in the most serious cases can also lead to life-threatening complications. Until last year, all dengue cases reported in California were associated with people traveling to a country where the disease is common. But Los Angeles County public health officials are now warning about the “unprecedented” local transmission of dengue, which is commonly found in tropical and subtropical climates. Just this month, the county Department of Public Health has reported four cases of locally acquired dengue — meaning people were infected in their communities, not while traveling. Three were documented in the San Gabriel Valley city of Baldwin Park; the latest was reported Wednesday in Panorama City, about 30 miles to the northwest.“While the widespread transmission of dengue remains low, we do urge residents ... to take simple steps to reduce exposure to mosquitoes. These include using insect repellent to prevent mosquito bites,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said at a recent news conference. Dengue, the world’s most common mosquito-borne illness, is not transmitted directly from insect to insect. Mosquitoes pick up the virus after they bite an infected person, then spread it by biting others, according to Jason Farned, district manager of the San Gabriel Valley Mosquito and Vector Control District. The worry, though, is “if there are enough infected mosquitoes, it could lead to exponential spread,” said Dr. Aiman Halai, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health’s Vector-Borne Disease Unit. “When we see local cases here, we want to act on them really quickly, identify additional cases in that area if there are, and work with our vector-control partners to control the mosquito populations rapidly so that it doesn’t spread,” Halai said. Officials are hoping to eradicate local reservoirs of dengue by reducing mosquito populations and eliminating possible breeding sites, namely containers that hold water.Last October, officials announced the first-ever confirmed case of dengue in California not associated with travel — in a resident of Pasadena. Another locally acquired case was reported in Long Beach about two weeks later. West Nile virus was first documented locally a generation ago, in 2003. Climate change is contributing to the spread of these invasive, non-native mosquito-borne diseases, experts say. The World Health Organization warned last year that global warming “marked by higher average temperatures, precipitation and longer periods of drought, could prompt a record number of dengue infections worldwide.”The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has also said that climate change increases the risk of exposure to West Nile virus, as warmer temperatures can accelerate mosquito development, biting rates and incubation of the disease within an insect. Mild winters and drought have also been associated with West Nile virus outbreaks, the EPA said. It was only about a decade ago that the invasive mosquito species Aedes aegypti was first found in California, shocking officials. That species can transmit dengue, as well as other viruses, namely yellow fever. Aedes aegypti was found in the Central Valley in 2013 and in Los Angeles County the following year. Aedes aegypti has now been identified throughout Southern California, including in San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Imperial counties; as well as in Sacramento, Fresno and Kern counties. The species has also been found as far north as Butte, Shasta and Glenn counties, according to the California Department of Public Health. At least three counties in the San Francisco Bay Area — Santa Clara, Contra Costa and Solano — have found Aedes aegypti this year. As the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment notes, “A changing climate may create conditions favorable for invasive mosquito species to expand their geographic range into California.” Aedes aegypti is considered more likely than another type of Aedes mosquito, Aedes albopictus, to spread viruses like dengue, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Aedes albopictus, also known as Asian tiger mosquitoes, arrived in L.A. County in 2001 and have since drawn complaints about their unusually aggressive, daytime biting. (Aedes aegypti also bite during the day.)Besides California, other states that have also reported limited local spread of dengue are Texas, Florida, Arizona and Hawaii. Health officials in Puerto Rico declared a dengue outbreak in March. Cases of dengue have “grown dramatically around the world in recent decades,” the WHO says. The number of cases reported globally has grown from about 500,000 in 2000 to more than 6.5 million in 2023, a record. “Dengue is at a record high around the world,” Farned said. “And so, as there are more dengue infections in other places in the world [and] people who are traveling in and out of L.A. County, there’s an increased risk that someone may bring the virus back and get bit by one of our local mosquitoes.” Dengue cases are underreported because most are asymptomatic or mild, officials say. But the mosquito-borne disease isn’t toothless. About 1 in 20 people who become infected with dengue will become seriously ill, suffering shock, internal bleeding, organ impairment or respiratory failure. Those at highest risk for severe illness are babies, pregnant people, seniors age 65 and up and people with certain medical conditions.More than 7,300 dengue deaths were reported globally in 2023. “Any infection can cause severe disease,” Halai said.Other possible symptoms include high fever, severe headache, pain behind the eyes, joint and muscle pain, rash and bleeding. Severe dengue is a medical emergency, and people with the following symptoms should immediately go to the emergency room: belly pain or tenderness, vomiting at least three times in 24 hours, bleeding from the nose or gums, vomiting blood, blood in the stool or feeling extremely tired or restless, according to the CDC. Signs of severe dengue usually begin to appear in the 24 to 48 hours after a fever has gone away. Throughout California, 250 dengue cases were reported in 2023. All of those were associated with out-of-state travel, except for the cases in Pasadena and Long Beach. The tally was the highest since 2019’s total of 267. At least 151 cases of dengue have been reported this year in California, including the cases in Baldwin Park and Panorama City.There are four dengue viruses that are closely related, but distinct. Infection from one usually leads to lifelong immunity from that specific dengue virus, and short-term cross-protective immunity from the others, Halai said. But this also means that a person who has recovered from their first dengue infection can get infected a second time. And a second infection raises the risk of severe disease, Halai said.There is no antiviral medication for dengue. Exacerbating the risk is that mosquito season is generally starting earlier and ending later — potentially running from March all the way through October, according to Farned.Aedes aegypti, however, tend to peak a little bit later than other mosquito populations, with maximum activity from August through October. The season ends when nighttime temperatures drop below 50 degrees, essentially too cold for them to reproduce. “As soon as the nighttime temperatures are consistently in the 40s or low 50s, we see mosquito populations crash,” Farned said. The mosquitoes are still around in winter, but disease prevalence and nuisance biting generally goes away. Aedes aegypti prefer to live near humans, in cities, Farned said. “We find them mostly in backyards, growing in very small containers ... from buckets to flower pots, old tires,” he said. “The more water that can fill these containers through sprinklers and other ways will grow more mosquitoes. And the more foliage that you have and the more shade that you have will allow places for these mosquitoes to rest and be comfortable.”Yards with sparse vegetation or drought-tolerant landscaping are less inviting. Mosquitoes can breed even in the small amount of water that collects in a bottle cap, and only need five to seven days to grow from egg to adult, Farned said. Mosquito eggs can last for more than a year without water, according to Santa Clara County. Aedes aegypti “feeds almost exclusively on humans and does not fly long distances, venturing fewer than 500 feet from where it hatches,” county officials said. That county, Northern California’s most populous, is aiming to eradicate Aedes aegypti when they are discovered. Painstaking attempts to eliminate them are underway in a neighborhood of East San José and in Gilroy. “If Aedes aegypti gains a foothold in Santa Clara County, it will not only threaten public health but also affect our quality of life, as these mosquitoes are highly aggressive and active during the day, unlike native mosquito populations, which are most active in the morning and evening, when temperatures are cool,” Santa Clara County said in a statement. Residents can disrupt Aedes aegypti by dumping any standing water in their yards at least once a week, and tossing any unused containers. Other sources of water that should be regularly emptied include pet dishes, fountains, bird bath, plant pots and saucers, according to Santa Clara County. Scrubbing bird baths and pet dishes can also help remove lingering Aedes aegypti eggs, which look like tiny bits of dirt and are about a half-millimeter in size. Rain barrels should be properly screened or covered to prevent mosquito access, broken sprinkler heads should be fixed to avoid overwatering lawns, and window and door screens should be looked at to make sure there are tightly fitted with no holes or tears, officials say. Using mosquito repellents is also recommended — so long as they have active ingredients approved by the EPA, such as DEET, Picaridin, IR3535 or oil of lemon eucalyptus, Farned said. Oil of lemon eucalyptus may also be listed by its chemical name, PMD.The CDC says using EPA-registered insect repellents is safe and effective, including for pregnant and breastfeeding women. Oil of lemon eucalyptus should not be used on children younger than age 3, the CDC says. Insect repellents are not meant to kill insects, but work by dulling their senses to prevent them from finding humans, according to the National Pesticide Information Center. Mosquitoes locate people to bite using our skin odors and the carbon dioxide we exhale, as well as heat, movement and visual cues, the center said. People can also decide to treat their clothing, boots and camping gear with permethrin, an insecticide that kills or repels mosquitoes, according to the CDC.

Climate change is exacerbating the risk of potentially dangerous mosquito-borne diseases in California — threatening to turn more of those annoying-but-harmless bites into severe illnesses, experts say.

Climate change is exacerbating the risk of potentially dangerous mosquito-borne diseases in California — threatening to turn more of those annoying-but-harmless bites into severe illnesses, experts say.

California already grapples with West Nile virus, a potentially deadly disease that was first detected in the state about two decades ago. But officials are now warning of a potential new foe: dengue, a viral infection that in the most serious cases can also lead to life-threatening complications.

Until last year, all dengue cases reported in California were associated with people traveling to a country where the disease is common. But Los Angeles County public health officials are now warning about the “unprecedented” local transmission of dengue, which is commonly found in tropical and subtropical climates.

Just this month, the county Department of Public Health has reported four cases of locally acquired dengue — meaning people were infected in their communities, not while traveling. Three were documented in the San Gabriel Valley city of Baldwin Park; the latest was reported Wednesday in Panorama City, about 30 miles to the northwest.

“While the widespread transmission of dengue remains low, we do urge residents ... to take simple steps to reduce exposure to mosquitoes. These include using insect repellent to prevent mosquito bites,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said at a recent news conference.

Dengue, the world’s most common mosquito-borne illness, is not transmitted directly from insect to insect. Mosquitoes pick up the virus after they bite an infected person, then spread it by biting others, according to Jason Farned, district manager of the San Gabriel Valley Mosquito and Vector Control District.

The worry, though, is “if there are enough infected mosquitoes, it could lead to exponential spread,” said Dr. Aiman Halai, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health’s Vector-Borne Disease Unit.

“When we see local cases here, we want to act on them really quickly, identify additional cases in that area if there are, and work with our vector-control partners to control the mosquito populations rapidly so that it doesn’t spread,” Halai said.

Officials are hoping to eradicate local reservoirs of dengue by reducing mosquito populations and eliminating possible breeding sites, namely containers that hold water.

Last October, officials announced the first-ever confirmed case of dengue in California not associated with travel — in a resident of Pasadena. Another locally acquired case was reported in Long Beach about two weeks later.

West Nile virus was first documented locally a generation ago, in 2003.

Climate change is contributing to the spread of these invasive, non-native mosquito-borne diseases, experts say. The World Health Organization warned last year that global warming “marked by higher average temperatures, precipitation and longer periods of drought, could prompt a record number of dengue infections worldwide.”

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has also said that climate change increases the risk of exposure to West Nile virus, as warmer temperatures can accelerate mosquito development, biting rates and incubation of the disease within an insect. Mild winters and drought have also been associated with West Nile virus outbreaks, the EPA said.

It was only about a decade ago that the invasive mosquito species Aedes aegypti was first found in California, shocking officials. That species can transmit dengue, as well as other viruses, namely yellow fever. Aedes aegypti was found in the Central Valley in 2013 and in Los Angeles County the following year.

Aedes aegypti has now been identified throughout Southern California, including in San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Imperial counties; as well as in Sacramento, Fresno and Kern counties.

The species has also been found as far north as Butte, Shasta and Glenn counties, according to the California Department of Public Health. At least three counties in the San Francisco Bay Area — Santa Clara, Contra Costa and Solano — have found Aedes aegypti this year.

As the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment notes, “A changing climate may create conditions favorable for invasive mosquito species to expand their geographic range into California.”

Aedes aegypti is considered more likely than another type of Aedes mosquito, Aedes albopictus, to spread viruses like dengue, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Aedes albopictus, also known as Asian tiger mosquitoes, arrived in L.A. County in 2001 and have since drawn complaints about their unusually aggressive, daytime biting. (Aedes aegypti also bite during the day.)

Besides California, other states that have also reported limited local spread of dengue are Texas, Florida, Arizona and Hawaii. Health officials in Puerto Rico declared a dengue outbreak in March.

Cases of dengue have “grown dramatically around the world in recent decades,” the WHO says. The number of cases reported globally has grown from about 500,000 in 2000 to more than 6.5 million in 2023, a record.

“Dengue is at a record high around the world,” Farned said. “And so, as there are more dengue infections in other places in the world [and] people who are traveling in and out of L.A. County, there’s an increased risk that someone may bring the virus back and get bit by one of our local mosquitoes.”

Dengue cases are underreported because most are asymptomatic or mild, officials say.

But the mosquito-borne disease isn’t toothless. About 1 in 20 people who become infected with dengue will become seriously ill, suffering shock, internal bleeding, organ impairment or respiratory failure.

Those at highest risk for severe illness are babies, pregnant people, seniors age 65 and up and people with certain medical conditions.

More than 7,300 dengue deaths were reported globally in 2023.

“Any infection can cause severe disease,” Halai said.

Other possible symptoms include high fever, severe headache, pain behind the eyes, joint and muscle pain, rash and bleeding.

Severe dengue is a medical emergency, and people with the following symptoms should immediately go to the emergency room: belly pain or tenderness, vomiting at least three times in 24 hours, bleeding from the nose or gums, vomiting blood, blood in the stool or feeling extremely tired or restless, according to the CDC. Signs of severe dengue usually begin to appear in the 24 to 48 hours after a fever has gone away.

Throughout California, 250 dengue cases were reported in 2023. All of those were associated with out-of-state travel, except for the cases in Pasadena and Long Beach. The tally was the highest since 2019’s total of 267.

At least 151 cases of dengue have been reported this year in California, including the cases in Baldwin Park and Panorama City.

There are four dengue viruses that are closely related, but distinct. Infection from one usually leads to lifelong immunity from that specific dengue virus, and short-term cross-protective immunity from the others, Halai said.

But this also means that a person who has recovered from their first dengue infection can get infected a second time. And a second infection raises the risk of severe disease, Halai said.

There is no antiviral medication for dengue.

Exacerbating the risk is that mosquito season is generally starting earlier and ending later — potentially running from March all the way through October, according to Farned.

Aedes aegypti, however, tend to peak a little bit later than other mosquito populations, with maximum activity from August through October. The season ends when nighttime temperatures drop below 50 degrees, essentially too cold for them to reproduce.

“As soon as the nighttime temperatures are consistently in the 40s or low 50s, we see mosquito populations crash,” Farned said. The mosquitoes are still around in winter, but disease prevalence and nuisance biting generally goes away.

Aedes aegypti prefer to live near humans, in cities, Farned said.

“We find them mostly in backyards, growing in very small containers ... from buckets to flower pots, old tires,” he said. “The more water that can fill these containers through sprinklers and other ways will grow more mosquitoes. And the more foliage that you have and the more shade that you have will allow places for these mosquitoes to rest and be comfortable.”

Yards with sparse vegetation or drought-tolerant landscaping are less inviting.

Mosquitoes can breed even in the small amount of water that collects in a bottle cap, and only need five to seven days to grow from egg to adult, Farned said.

Mosquito eggs can last for more than a year without water, according to Santa Clara County. Aedes aegypti “feeds almost exclusively on humans and does not fly long distances, venturing fewer than 500 feet from where it hatches,” county officials said.

That county, Northern California’s most populous, is aiming to eradicate Aedes aegypti when they are discovered. Painstaking attempts to eliminate them are underway in a neighborhood of East San José and in Gilroy.

“If Aedes aegypti gains a foothold in Santa Clara County, it will not only threaten public health but also affect our quality of life, as these mosquitoes are highly aggressive and active during the day, unlike native mosquito populations, which are most active in the morning and evening, when temperatures are cool,” Santa Clara County said in a statement.

Residents can disrupt Aedes aegypti by dumping any standing water in their yards at least once a week, and tossing any unused containers.

Other sources of water that should be regularly emptied include pet dishes, fountains, bird bath, plant pots and saucers, according to Santa Clara County. Scrubbing bird baths and pet dishes can also help remove lingering Aedes aegypti eggs, which look like tiny bits of dirt and are about a half-millimeter in size.

Rain barrels should be properly screened or covered to prevent mosquito access, broken sprinkler heads should be fixed to avoid overwatering lawns, and window and door screens should be looked at to make sure there are tightly fitted with no holes or tears, officials say.

Using mosquito repellents is also recommended — so long as they have active ingredients approved by the EPA, such as DEET, Picaridin, IR3535 or oil of lemon eucalyptus, Farned said. Oil of lemon eucalyptus may also be listed by its chemical name, PMD.

The CDC says using EPA-registered insect repellents is safe and effective, including for pregnant and breastfeeding women. Oil of lemon eucalyptus should not be used on children younger than age 3, the CDC says.

Insect repellents are not meant to kill insects, but work by dulling their senses to prevent them from finding humans, according to the National Pesticide Information Center. Mosquitoes locate people to bite using our skin odors and the carbon dioxide we exhale, as well as heat, movement and visual cues, the center said.

People can also decide to treat their clothing, boots and camping gear with permethrin, an insecticide that kills or repels mosquitoes, according to the CDC.

Read the full story here.
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The Climate Impact of Owning a Dog

My dog contributes to climate change. I love him anyway.

This story originally appeared on Grist and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration.I’ve been a vegetarian for over a decade. It’s not because of my health, or because I dislike the taste of chicken or beef: It’s a lifestyle choice I made because I wanted to reduce my impact on the planet. And yet, twice a day, every day, I lovingly scoop a cup of meat-based kibble into a bowl and set it down for my 50-pound rescue dog, a husky mix named Loki.WIRED's Guide to How the Universe WorksYour weekly roundup of the best stories on health care, the climate crisis, new scientific discoveries, and more. Until recently, I hadn’t devoted a huge amount of thought to that paradox. Then I read an article in the Associated Press headlined “People often miscalculate climate choices, a study says. One surprise is owning a dog.”The study, led by environmental psychology researcher Danielle Goldwert and published in the journal PNAS Nexus, examined how people perceive the climate impact of various behaviors—options like “adopt a vegan diet for at least one year,” or “shift from fossil fuel car to renewable public transport.” The team found that participants generally overestimated a number of low-impact actions like recycling and using efficient appliances, and they vastly underestimated the impact of other personal decisions, including the decision to “not purchase or adopt a dog.”The real objective of the study was to see whether certain types of climate information could help people commit to more effective actions. But mere hours after the AP published its article, its aim had been recast as something else entirely: an attack on people’s furry family members. “Climate change is actually your fault because you have a dog,” one Reddit user wrote. Others in the community chimed in with ire, ridiculing the idea that a pet Chihuahua could be driving the climate crisis and calling on researchers and the media to stop pointing fingers at everyday individuals.Goldwert and her fellow researchers watched the reactions unfold with dismay. “If I saw a headline that said, ‘Climate scientists want to take your dogs away,’ I would also feel upset,” she said. “They definitely don’t,” she added. “You can quote me on that.”Loki grinning on a hike in the Pacific Northwest. Photograph: Claire Elise Thompson/Grist

COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet

What was once considered a climate holy grail comes with serious tradeoffs. The world wants more of it anyway.

First the plant stalk is harvested, shredded, and crushed. The extracted juice is then combined with bacteria and yeast in large bioreactors, where the sugars are metabolized and converted into ethanol and carbon dioxide. From there, the liquid is typically distilled to maximize ethanol concentration, before it is blended with gasoline.  You know the final products as biofuels — mostly made from food crops like sugarcane and corn, and endorsed by everyone from agricultural lobbyists to activists and billionaires. Biofuels were developed decades ago to be cheaper, greener alternatives to planet-polluting petrol. As adoption has expanded — now to the point of a pro-biofuel agenda being pushed this week at COP30 in Belém, Brazil — their environmental and food accessibility footprint has remained a source of fierce debate.  The governments of Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India are spearheading a new pledge calling for the rapid global expansion of biofuels as a commitment to decarbonizing transportation energy.  Though the text of the pledge itself is vague, as most COP pledges tend to be, the target embedded in an accompanying International Energy Agency report is clear: expand the global use of so-called sustainable fuels from 2024 levels by at least four times, so that by 2035, sustainable fuels cover 10 percent of all global road transport demand, 15 percent of aviation demand, and 35 percent of shipping fuel demand. By Friday, the last official day of COP30, at least 23 countries have joined the pledge — while Brazilian delegates have been working “hand in hand with industry groups” to get language backing biofuels into the final summit deal.  “Latin America, South East Asia, Africa — they need to improve their efficiency, their energy, and Brazil has a model for this [in its rollout of biofuels],” Roberto Rodrigues, Brazil’s special envoy for agriculture at the summit, said on a COP panel last weekend. As of the time of this story’s publication, the pro-biofuel language hadn’t made it into the latest draft text that outlines the main outcome of the summit released Friday — although it appears the summit could end without a deal.  Read Next At COP30 in Brazil, countries plan to armor themselves against a warming world Zoya Teirstein Though scientists continue to experiment with utilizing other raw materials for biofuels — a list which includes agricultural and forestry waste, cooking oils, and algae — the bulk of feedstocks almost exclusively come from the fields. Different types of food crops are used for different types of biofuels; sugary and starchy crops, such as sugar cane, wheat, and corn, are often made into ethanol; while oily crops, like soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, are largely used for biodiesel.  The cycle goes a little like this: Farmers, desperate to replace cropland lost to biofuel production, raze more forests and plow up more grasslands, resulting in deforestation that tends to release far more carbon than burning biofuels saves. But as large-scale production continues to expand, there may be insufficient land, water, and energy available for another big biofuel boom — prompting many researchers and climate activists to question whether countries should be aiming to scale these markets at all. (Thomson Reuters reported that global biofuel production has increased ninefold since 2000.) Biofuels account for the vast majority of “sustainable fuels” currently used worldwide. An analysis by a clean transport advocacy organization published last month found that, because of the indirect impacts to farming and land use, biofuels are responsible globally for 16 percent more CO2 emissions than the planet-polluting fossil fuels they replace. In fact, the report surmises that by 2030, biofuel crops could require land equivalent to the size of France. More than 40 million hectares of Earth’s cropland is already devoted to biofuel feedstocks, an area roughly the size of Paraguay. The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation, or EUDR, cites soybeans among the commodities driving deforestation worldwide. “While countries are right to transition away from fossil fuels, they also need to ensure their plans don’t trigger unintended consequences, such as more deforestation either at home or abroad,” said Janet Ranganathan, managing director of strategy, learning, and results at the World Resources Institute in a statement responding to the Belém pledge. She added that rapidly expanding global biofuel production would have “significant implications for the world’s land, especially without guardrails to prevent large-scale expansion of land dedicated to biofuels, which drives ecosystem loss.” Other environmental issues found to be associated with converting food crops into biofuels include water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, air pollution, and soil erosion. One study, conducted a decade ago, showed that, when accounting for all the inputs needed to produce different varieties of ethanol or biodiesel — machinery, seeds, water, electricity, fertilizers, transportation, and more — producing fuel-grade ethanol or biodiesel requires significantly more energy input than it creates.  Read Next ‘Everyone is exhausted’: First week of COP30 marked by frustration with slow progress Bob Berwyn, Inside Climate News Nonetheless, it’s not a shock to see Brazil betting big on biofuels at COP30. In Brazil, biofuels make up roughly a quarter of transportation fuels — a remarkably high proportion compared to most other countries. And that share, dominated by sugarcane ethanol, is still on an upward climb, with the Belém pledge evidence of the country’s intended trajectory.  A spokesperson from Brazil’s foreign affairs ministry told The Guardian that the “proponents of the pledge (which include Japan, Italy, India, among others) are calling upon countries to support quadrupling production and use of sustainable fuels — a group of gaseous and liquid fuels that include e-fuels, biogases, biofuels, hydrogen and its derivatives.” They added that the goal is based on the new IEA report that underscores the production increase as necessary to aggressively reduce emissions. That report suggests that if current and proposed national and international policies are implemented and fully legislated, global biofuel use and production would double by 2035. “The word ‘sustainable’ is not used lightly, neither in the report nor in the pledge,” the spokesperson said.  The issue, of course, is in how emissions footprints of something like ethanol fuel production are even measured. Much like many other climate sources, scientists argue that tracking greenhouse gas emissions linked to ethanol fuel should account for emissions at every stage — production, processing, distribution, and vehicle use. Yet that isn’t often the case: in fact, a 2024 paper found that Brazil’s national biofuel policy does not account for all direct and indirect emissions in its calculation.  The exclusions are evident of a larger trend, according to University of Minnesota environmental scientist Jason Hill. “Overall, either those studies have not included [direct and indirect emissions], or they found ways to spread those impacts over anticipated production, decades, centuries, or so forth, that tend to dilute those effects. So the accounting methods aren’t really consistent with what the best science shows,” said Hill, who studies the environmental and economic consequences of food, energy, and biofuel production.  In short: More biofuels means either more intensive agriculture on a smaller share of available cropland, which has its own detrimental environmental effects, or expansion of cropland, and the land-use emissions and environmental impacts that can carry. “Biofuel production today is already a bad idea. And doubling [that] is doubling down on an existing problem,” said Hill.  Read Next COP30 has big plans to save the rainforest. Indigenous activists say it’s not enough. Frida Garza & Miacel Spotted Elk Moreover, diverting crops like corn and soybeans from dinner plates to fuel tanks doesn’t just spark brutal competition for land and resources, it can also spike food prices and leave the world’s most vulnerable populations with less to eat.  A 2022 analysis of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, the world’s largest biofuel program, found that it has led to increased food prices for Americans, with corn prices rising by 30 percent and other crops such as soybean and wheat spiking by around 20 percent. This then set off a domino effect: Increasing annual nationwide fertilizer use by up to 8 percent and water quality degradants by up to 5 percent. The carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the mandate has ended up at least equaling the planet-polluting effects of gasoline.  “Biofuel mandates essentially create a baseline demand that can leave food crops by the wayside,” says Ginni Braich, a data scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder who has worked as a senior advisor to government clean technology and emission reduction programs. That’s because of the issue with supply and demand of food crops — higher competition for feedstocks hikes up the prices of food, feed, and farming inputs.  When there are biofuel mandates, which the IEA report underlying the Belém pledge recommends, demand remains inelastic — no matter the changes in yields, growing and weather conditions, prices, or markets. Say there is a huge drought that decimates crop yields, as one example, the baseline demand of biofuels still needs to be met despite depleted food stocks. In terms of supply, increasing growing area for biofuels typically means less area available to grow food crops — which can cause prices to surge alongside supply shortages, and spike costs of seed, inputs, and land. Nutritional implications should also be taken into account, according to Braich. Not only do people’s diets tend to shift when food gets more costly, but cropping patterns are already revealing adverse shifts in dietary diversity, which could be exacerbated by a further concentration on fewer crops. The Belém pledge, and Brazil’s intention to lead a global expansion of the biofuels market, does not bode well for people’s food accessibility nor for the future of the planet, warns Braich.  “It seems quite paradoxical for Brazil to promote the large-scale expansion of biofuels and also be seen as a protector of forests,” she said. “Is it better than decarbonization and fossil fuel divestment rhetoric without actual transition pathways? Yes, but in a lot of ways it is also greenwashing.” This story was originally published by Grist with the headline COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet on Nov 21, 2025.

Iran's Capital Has Run Out of Water, Forcing It to Move

The decision to move Iran’s capital is partly driven by climate change, but experts say decades of human error and action are also to blame

November 21, 20252 min readIran's Capital Is Moving. The Reason Is an Ecological CatastropheThe move is partly driven by climate change, but experts say decades of human error and action are also to blameBy Humberto Basilio edited by Claire CameronA dry water feature in Tehran on November 9, 2025 TTA KENARE/AFP/Getty ImagesTehran can no longer remain the capital of Iran amid a deepening ecological crisis and acute water shortage.The situation in Tehran is the result of “a perfect storm of climate change and corruption,” says Michael Rubin, a political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.“We no longer have a choice,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly told officials on Friday.On supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.Instead, Iranian officials are considering moving the capital to the country’s southern coast. But experts say the proposal does not change the reality for the nearly ten million people who live in Tehran, who are now suffering the consequences of a decades-long decline in water supply.Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture was rapidly draining its aquifers. The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One recent study found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover, says Darío Solano, a geoscientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.“We saw this coming,” says Solano.Other major cities like Cape Town, Mexico City, Jakarta and parts of California are also facing day zero scenarios as they sink and run out of water.This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Isfahan to Tabriz to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins, says Rubin. But this marks the first time the Iranian government has moved the capital because of an ecological catastrophe.Yet, Rubin says, “it would be a mistake to look at this only through the lens of climate change.” Water, land and wastewater mismanagement and corruption have made the crisis worse, he says. If the capital moves to the remote Makran coast in the south, it could cost more than $100 billion dollars. The region is known for its harsh climate and difficult terrain, and some experts have doubts about its viability as a national center. Relocating a capital is often driven more by politics than by environmental concerns, says Linda Shi, a social scientist and urban planner at Cornell University. “Climate change is not the thing that is causing it, but it is a convenient factor to blame in order to avoid taking responsibility” for poor political decisions, she says.It’s Time to Stand Up for ScienceIf you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

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