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NASA’s Zero-Boil-Off Tank Experiments To Enable Long-Duration Space Exploration

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Thursday, March 14, 2024

Figure 1. The Gateway space station—humanity’s first space station around the Moon—will be capable of being refueled in space. Credit: NASA, Alberto Bertolin, Bradley ReynoldsNASA’s Zero-Boil-Off Tank experiments address the challenge of managing cryogenic propellants in space, crucial for future Moon and Mars missions, with potential Earth-bound benefits in hydrogen energy applications.Do we have enough fuel to get to our destination? This is probably one of the first questions that comes to mind whenever your family gets ready to embark on a road trip. If the trip is long, you will need to visit gas stations along your route to refuel during your travel.NASA is grappling with similar issues as it gets ready to embark on a sustainable mission back to the Moon and plans future missions to Mars. But while your car’s fuel is gasoline, which can be safely and indefinitely stored as a liquid in the car’s gas tank, spacecraft fuels are volatile cryogenic liquid propellants that must be maintained at extremely low temperatures and guarded from environmental heat leaks into the spacecraft’s propellant tank. And while there is already an established network of commercial gas stations in place to make refueling your car a cinch, there are no cryogenic refueling stations or depots at the Moon or on the way to Mars. Furthermore, storing volatile propellant for a long time and transferring it from an in-space depot tank to a spacecraft’s fuel tank under microgravity conditions will not be easy since the underlying microgravity fluid physics affecting such operations is not well understood. Even with today’s technology, preserving cryogenic fuels in space beyond several days is not possible and tank-to-tank fuel transfer has never been previously performed or tested in space.Propellant Management in Space: Overcoming Boil-OffHeat conducted through support structures or from the radiative space environment can penetrate even the formidable Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) systems of in-space propellant tanks, leading to boil-off or vaporization of the propellant and causing tank self-pressurization. The current practice is to guard against over-pressurizing the tank and endangering its structural integrity by venting the boil-off vapor into space.Onboard propellants are also used to cool down the hot transfer lines and the walls of an empty spacecraft tank before a fuel transfer and filling operation can take place. Thus, precious fuel is continuously wasted during both storage and transfer operations, rendering long-duration expeditions—especially a human Mars mission—infeasible using current passive propellant tank pressure control methods.Introducing ZBO: A New Horizon in Fuel EfficiencyZero-Boil-Off (ZBO) or Reduced Boil-Off (RBO) technologies provide an innovative and effective means to replace the current passive tank pressure control design. This method relies on a complex combination of active, gravity-dependent mixing and energy removal processes that allow maintenance of safe tank pressure with zero or significantly reduced fuel loss.Zero Boil-off Storage and Transfer: A Transformative Space TechnologyAt the heart of the ZBO pressure control system are two proposed active mixing and cooling mechanisms to counter tank self-pressurization. The first is based on intermittent, forced, subcooled jet mixing of the propellant and involves complex, dynamic, gravity-dependent interaction between the jet and the ullage (vapor volume) to control the condensation and evaporation phase change at the liquid-vapor interface.The second mechanism uses subcooled droplet injection via a spraybar in the ullage to control tank pressure and temperature. While the latter option is promising and gaining prominence, it is more complex and has never been tested in microgravity where the phase change and transport behavior of droplet populations can be very different and nonintuitive compared to those on Earth.Although the dynamic ZBO approach is technologically complex, it promises an impressive advantage over the currently used passive methods. An assessment of one nuclear propulsion concept for Mars transport estimated that the passive boil-off losses for a large liquid hydrogen tank carrying 38 tons of fuel for a three-year mission to Mars would be approximately 16 tons/year. The proposed ZBO system would provide a 42% saving of propellant mass per year.These numbers also imply that with a passive system, all the fuel carried for a three-year Mars mission would be lost to boil-off, rendering such a mission infeasible without resorting to the transformative ZBO technology.The ZBO approach provides a promising method, but before such a complex technological and operational transformation can be fully developed, implemented, and demonstrated in space, important and decisive scientific questions that impact its engineering implementation and microgravity performance must be clarified and resolved.The Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Microgravity Science ExperimentsThe Zero Boil-off Tank (ZBOT) Experiments are being undertaken to form a scientific foundation for the development of the transformative ZBO propellant preservation method. Following the recommendation of a ZBOT science review panel comprised of members from aerospace industries, academia, and NASA, it was decided to perform the proposed investigation as a series of three small-scale science experiments to be conducted onboard the International Space Station. The three experiments outlined below build upon each other to address key science questions related to ZBO cryogenic fluid management of propellants in space.Figure 2. Astronaut Joseph M. Acaba installing ZBOT Hardware in the Microgravity Science Glovebox aboard the International Space Station. Credit: NASAThe ZBOT-1 Experiment: Self-Pressurization & Jet MixingThe first experiment in the series was carried out on the station in the 2017-2018 timeframe. Figure 2 shows the ZBOT-1 hardware in the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) unit of the station. The main focus of this experiment was to investigate the self-pressurization and boiling that occurs in a sealed tank due to local and global heating, and the feasibility of tank pressure control via subcooled axial jet mixing. In this experiment, the complicated interaction of the jet flow with the ullage (vapor volume) in microgravity was carefully studied.Microgravity jet mixing data was also collected across a wide range of scaled flow and heat transfer parameters to characterize the time constants for tank pressure reduction, and the thresholds for geyser (liquid fountain) formation, including its stability, and penetration depth through the ullage volume. Along with very accurate pressure and local temperature sensor measurements, Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was performed to obtain whole-field flow velocity measurements to validate a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model.Figure 3. Validation of ZBOT CFD Model Predictions for fluid flow and deformation of a spherical ullage in microgravity by a subcooled liquid jet mixing against ZBOT experimental results: (a) Model prediction of ullage position and deformation and flow vortex structures during subcooled jet mixing; (b) PIV image capture of flow vortex structures during jet mixing; (c) Ullage deformation captured by white light imaging; and (d) CFD model depiction of temperature contours during subcooled jet mixing. (ZBOT-1 Experiment, 2018) Credit: Dr. Mohammad Kassemi, Case Western Reserve UniversitySome of the interesting findings of the ZBOT-1experiment are as follows:Provided the first tank self-pressurization rate data in microgravity under controlled conditions that can be used for estimating the tank insulation requirements. Results also showed that classical self-pressurization is quite fragile in microgravity and nucleate boiling can occur at hotspots on the tank wall even at moderate heat fluxes that do not induce boiling on Earth.Proved that ZBO pressure control is feasible and effective in microgravity using subcooled jet mixing, but also demonstrated that microgravity ullage-jet interaction does not follow the expected classical regime patterns (see Figure 3).Enabled observation of unexpected cavitation during subcooled jet mixing, leading to massive phase change at both sides of the screened Liquid Acquisition Device (LAD) (see Figure 4). If this type of phase change occurs in a propellant tank, it can lead to vapor ingestion through the LAD and disruption of liquid flow in the transfer line, potentially leading to engine failure.Developed a state-of-the-art two-phase CFD model validated by over 30 microgravity case studies (an example of which is shown in Figure 3). ZBOT CFD models are currently used as an effective tool for propellant tank scaleup design by several aerospace companies participating in the NASA tipping point opportunity and the NASA Human Landing System (HLS) program.Figure 4. White light image captures of the intact single hemispherical ullage in ZBOT tank before depressurization by the subcooled jet (left) and after subcooled jet mixing pressure collapse that led to massive phase change bubble generation due to cavitation at the LAD (right). (ZBOT-1 Experiment, 2018). Credit: Dr. Mohammad Kassemi, Case Western Reserve UniversityThe ZBOT-NC Experiment: Non-Condensable Gas EffectsNon-condensable gases (NCGs) are used as pressurants to extract liquid for engine operations and tank-to-tank transfer. The second experiment, ZBOT-NC will investigate the effect of NCGs on the sealed tank self-pressurization and on pressure control by axial jet mixing. Two inert gases with quite different molecular sizes, Xenon, and Neon, will be used as the non-condensable pressurants. To achieve pressure control or reduction, vapor molecules must reach the liquid-vapor interface that is being cooled by the mixing jet and then cross the interface to the liquid side to condense.This study will focus on how in microgravity the non-condensable gases can slow down or resist the transport of vapor molecules to the liquid-vapor interface (transport resistance) and will clarify to what extent they may form a barrier at the interface and impede the passage of the vapor molecules across the interface to the liquid side (kinetic resistance). By affecting the interface conditions, the NCGs can also change the flow and thermal structures in the liquid.ZBOT-NC will use both local temperature sensor data and uniquely developed Quantum Dot Thermometry (QDT) diagnostics to collect nonintrusive whole-field temperature measurements to assess the effect of the non-condensable gases during both self-pressurization heating and jet mixing/cooling of the tank under weightlessness conditions. This experiment is scheduled to fly to the International Space Station in early 2025, and more than 300 different microgravity tests are planned. Results from these tests will also enable the ZBOT CFD model to be further developed and validated to include the non-condensable gas effects with physical and numerical fidelity.The ZBOT-DP Experiment: Droplet Phase Change EffectsZBO active pressure control can also be accomplished via injection of subcooled liquid droplets through an axial spray-bar directly into the ullage or vapor volume. This mechanism is very promising, but its performance has not yet been tested in microgravity. Evaporation of droplets consumes heat that is supplied by the hot vapor surrounding the droplets and produces vapor that is at a much lower saturation temperature. As a result, both the temperature and the pressure of the ullage vapor volume are reduced. Droplet injection can also be used to cool down the hot walls of an empty propellant tank before a tank-to-tank transfer or filling operation. Furthermore, droplets can be created during the propellant sloshing caused by acceleration of the spacecraft, and these droplets then undergo phase change and heat transfer. This heat transfer can cause a pressure collapse that may lead to cavitation or a massive liquid-to-vapor phase change. The behavior of droplet populations in microgravity will be drastically different compared to that on Earth.The ZBOT-DP experiment will investigate the disintegration, coalescence (droplets merging together), phase change, and transport and trajectory characteristics of droplet populations and their effects on the tank pressure in microgravity. Particular attention will also be devoted to the interaction of the droplets with a heated tank wall, which can lead to flash evaporation subject to complications caused by the Liedenfrost effect (when liquid droplets propel away from a heated surface and thus cannot cool the tank wall). These complicated phenomena have not been scientifically examined in microgravity and must be resolved to assess the feasibility and performance of droplet injection as a pressure and temperature control mechanism in microgravity.Back to Planet EarthThis NASA-sponsored fundamental research is now helping commercial providers of future landing systems for human explorers. Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, participants in NASA’s Human Landing Systems program, are using data from the ZBOT experiments to inform future spacecraft designs.Cryogenic fluid management and use of hydrogen as a fuel are not limited to space applications. Clean green energy provided by hydrogen may one day fuel airplanes, ships, and trucks on Earth, yielding enormous climate and economic benefits. By forming the scientific foundation of ZBO cryogenic fluid management for space exploration, the ZBOT science experiments and CFD model development will also help to reap the benefits of hydrogen as a fuel here on Earth.Project LeadDr. Mohammad Kassemi (Dept Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Case Western Reserve University)Sponsoring OrganizationBiological and Physical Sciences (BPS) Division, NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD)

NASA’s Zero-Boil-Off Tank experiments address the challenge of managing cryogenic propellants in space, crucial for future Moon and Mars missions, with potential Earth-bound benefits in...

Gateway Space Station Full Configuration

Figure 1. The Gateway space station—humanity’s first space station around the Moon—will be capable of being refueled in space. Credit: NASA, Alberto Bertolin, Bradley Reynolds

NASA’s Zero-Boil-Off Tank experiments address the challenge of managing cryogenic propellants in space, crucial for future Moon and Mars missions, with potential Earth-bound benefits in hydrogen energy applications.

Do we have enough fuel to get to our destination? This is probably one of the first questions that comes to mind whenever your family gets ready to embark on a road trip. If the trip is long, you will need to visit gas stations along your route to refuel during your travel.

NASA is grappling with similar issues as it gets ready to embark on a sustainable mission back to the Moon and plans future missions to Mars. But while your car’s fuel is gasoline, which can be safely and indefinitely stored as a liquid in the car’s gas tank, spacecraft fuels are volatile cryogenic liquid propellants that must be maintained at extremely low temperatures and guarded from environmental heat leaks into the spacecraft’s propellant tank. And while there is already an established network of commercial gas stations in place to make refueling your car a cinch, there are no cryogenic refueling stations or depots at the Moon or on the way to Mars.

Furthermore, storing volatile propellant for a long time and transferring it from an in-space depot tank to a spacecraft’s fuel tank under microgravity conditions will not be easy since the underlying microgravity fluid physics affecting such operations is not well understood. Even with today’s technology, preserving cryogenic fuels in space beyond several days is not possible and tank-to-tank fuel transfer has never been previously performed or tested in space.

Propellant Management in Space: Overcoming Boil-Off

Heat conducted through support structures or from the radiative space environment can penetrate even the formidable Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) systems of in-space propellant tanks, leading to boil-off or vaporization of the propellant and causing tank self-pressurization. The current practice is to guard against over-pressurizing the tank and endangering its structural integrity by venting the boil-off vapor into space.

Onboard propellants are also used to cool down the hot transfer lines and the walls of an empty spacecraft tank before a fuel transfer and filling operation can take place. Thus, precious fuel is continuously wasted during both storage and transfer operations, rendering long-duration expeditions—especially a human Mars mission—infeasible using current passive propellant tank pressure control methods.

Introducing ZBO: A New Horizon in Fuel Efficiency

Zero-Boil-Off (ZBO) or Reduced Boil-Off (RBO) technologies provide an innovative and effective means to replace the current passive tank pressure control design. This method relies on a complex combination of active, gravity-dependent mixing and energy removal processes that allow maintenance of safe tank pressure with zero or significantly reduced fuel loss.

Zero Boil-off Storage and Transfer: A Transformative Space Technology

At the heart of the ZBO pressure control system are two proposed active mixing and cooling mechanisms to counter tank self-pressurization. The first is based on intermittent, forced, subcooled jet mixing of the propellant and involves complex, dynamic, gravity-dependent interaction between the jet and the ullage (vapor volume) to control the condensation and evaporation phase change at the liquid-vapor interface.

The second mechanism uses subcooled droplet injection via a spraybar in the ullage to control tank pressure and temperature. While the latter option is promising and gaining prominence, it is more complex and has never been tested in microgravity where the phase change and transport behavior of droplet populations can be very different and nonintuitive compared to those on Earth.

Although the dynamic ZBO approach is technologically complex, it promises an impressive advantage over the currently used passive methods. An assessment of one nuclear propulsion concept for Mars transport estimated that the passive boil-off losses for a large liquid hydrogen tank carrying 38 tons of fuel for a three-year mission to Mars would be approximately 16 tons/year. The proposed ZBO system would provide a 42% saving of propellant mass per year.

These numbers also imply that with a passive system, all the fuel carried for a three-year Mars mission would be lost to boil-off, rendering such a mission infeasible without resorting to the transformative ZBO technology.

The ZBO approach provides a promising method, but before such a complex technological and operational transformation can be fully developed, implemented, and demonstrated in space, important and decisive scientific questions that impact its engineering implementation and microgravity performance must be clarified and resolved.

The Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Microgravity Science Experiments

The Zero Boil-off Tank (ZBOT) Experiments are being undertaken to form a scientific foundation for the development of the transformative ZBO propellant preservation method. Following the recommendation of a ZBOT science review panel comprised of members from aerospace industries, academia, and NASA, it was decided to perform the proposed investigation as a series of three small-scale science experiments to be conducted onboard the International Space Station. The three experiments outlined below build upon each other to address key science questions related to ZBO cryogenic fluid management of propellants in space.

Astronaut Joseph Acaba Installing ZBOT Hardware

Figure 2. Astronaut Joseph M. Acaba installing ZBOT Hardware in the Microgravity Science Glovebox aboard the International Space Station. Credit: NASA

The ZBOT-1 Experiment: Self-Pressurization & Jet Mixing

The first experiment in the series was carried out on the station in the 2017-2018 timeframe. Figure 2 shows the ZBOT-1 hardware in the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) unit of the station. The main focus of this experiment was to investigate the self-pressurization and boiling that occurs in a sealed tank due to local and global heating, and the feasibility of tank pressure control via subcooled axial jet mixing. In this experiment, the complicated interaction of the jet flow with the ullage (vapor volume) in microgravity was carefully studied.

Microgravity jet mixing data was also collected across a wide range of scaled flow and heat transfer parameters to characterize the time constants for tank pressure reduction, and the thresholds for geyser (liquid fountain) formation, including its stability, and penetration depth through the ullage volume. Along with very accurate pressure and local temperature sensor measurements, Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was performed to obtain whole-field flow velocity measurements to validate a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model.

Validation of ZBOT CFD Model Predictions

Figure 3. Validation of ZBOT CFD Model Predictions for fluid flow and deformation of a spherical ullage in microgravity by a subcooled liquid jet mixing against ZBOT experimental results: (a) Model prediction of ullage position and deformation and flow vortex structures during subcooled jet mixing; (b) PIV image capture of flow vortex structures during jet mixing; (c) Ullage deformation captured by white light imaging; and (d) CFD model depiction of temperature contours during subcooled jet mixing. (ZBOT-1 Experiment, 2018) Credit: Dr. Mohammad Kassemi, Case Western Reserve University

Some of the interesting findings of the ZBOT-1experiment are as follows:

  1. Provided the first tank self-pressurization rate data in microgravity under controlled conditions that can be used for estimating the tank insulation requirements. Results also showed that classical self-pressurization is quite fragile in microgravity and nucleate boiling can occur at hotspots on the tank wall even at moderate heat fluxes that do not induce boiling on Earth.
  2. Proved that ZBO pressure control is feasible and effective in microgravity using subcooled jet mixing, but also demonstrated that microgravity ullage-jet interaction does not follow the expected classical regime patterns (see Figure 3).
  3. Enabled observation of unexpected cavitation during subcooled jet mixing, leading to massive phase change at both sides of the screened Liquid Acquisition Device (LAD) (see Figure 4). If this type of phase change occurs in a propellant tank, it can lead to vapor ingestion through the LAD and disruption of liquid flow in the transfer line, potentially leading to engine failure.
  4. Developed a state-of-the-art two-phase CFD model validated by over 30 microgravity case studies (an example of which is shown in Figure 3). ZBOT CFD models are currently used as an effective tool for propellant tank scaleup design by several aerospace companies participating in the NASA tipping point opportunity and the NASA Human Landing System (HLS) program.
Intact Single Hemispherical Ullage in ZBOT Tank

Figure 4. White light image captures of the intact single hemispherical ullage in ZBOT tank before depressurization by the subcooled jet (left) and after subcooled jet mixing pressure collapse that led to massive phase change bubble generation due to cavitation at the LAD (right). (ZBOT-1 Experiment, 2018). Credit: Dr. Mohammad Kassemi, Case Western Reserve University

The ZBOT-NC Experiment: Non-Condensable Gas Effects

Non-condensable gases (NCGs) are used as pressurants to extract liquid for engine operations and tank-to-tank transfer. The second experiment, ZBOT-NC will investigate the effect of NCGs on the sealed tank self-pressurization and on pressure control by axial jet mixing. Two inert gases with quite different molecular sizes, Xenon, and Neon, will be used as the non-condensable pressurants. To achieve pressure control or reduction, vapor molecules must reach the liquid-vapor interface that is being cooled by the mixing jet and then cross the interface to the liquid side to condense.

This study will focus on how in microgravity the non-condensable gases can slow down or resist the transport of vapor molecules to the liquid-vapor interface (transport resistance) and will clarify to what extent they may form a barrier at the interface and impede the passage of the vapor molecules across the interface to the liquid side (kinetic resistance). By affecting the interface conditions, the NCGs can also change the flow and thermal structures in the liquid.

ZBOT-NC will use both local temperature sensor data and uniquely developed Quantum Dot Thermometry (QDT) diagnostics to collect nonintrusive whole-field temperature measurements to assess the effect of the non-condensable gases during both self-pressurization heating and jet mixing/cooling of the tank under weightlessness conditions. This experiment is scheduled to fly to the International Space Station in early 2025, and more than 300 different microgravity tests are planned. Results from these tests will also enable the ZBOT CFD model to be further developed and validated to include the non-condensable gas effects with physical and numerical fidelity.

The ZBOT-DP Experiment: Droplet Phase Change Effects

ZBO active pressure control can also be accomplished via injection of subcooled liquid droplets through an axial spray-bar directly into the ullage or vapor volume. This mechanism is very promising, but its performance has not yet been tested in microgravity. Evaporation of droplets consumes heat that is supplied by the hot vapor surrounding the droplets and produces vapor that is at a much lower saturation temperature. As a result, both the temperature and the pressure of the ullage vapor volume are reduced. Droplet injection can also be used to cool down the hot walls of an empty propellant tank before a tank-to-tank transfer or filling operation. Furthermore, droplets can be created during the propellant sloshing caused by acceleration of the spacecraft, and these droplets then undergo phase change and heat transfer. This heat transfer can cause a pressure collapse that may lead to cavitation or a massive liquid-to-vapor phase change. The behavior of droplet populations in microgravity will be drastically different compared to that on Earth.

The ZBOT-DP experiment will investigate the disintegration, coalescence (droplets merging together), phase change, and transport and trajectory characteristics of droplet populations and their effects on the tank pressure in microgravity. Particular attention will also be devoted to the interaction of the droplets with a heated tank wall, which can lead to flash evaporation subject to complications caused by the Liedenfrost effect (when liquid droplets propel away from a heated surface and thus cannot cool the tank wall). These complicated phenomena have not been scientifically examined in microgravity and must be resolved to assess the feasibility and performance of droplet injection as a pressure and temperature control mechanism in microgravity.

Back to Planet Earth

This NASA-sponsored fundamental research is now helping commercial providers of future landing systems for human explorers. Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, participants in NASA’s Human Landing Systems program, are using data from the ZBOT experiments to inform future spacecraft designs.

Cryogenic fluid management and use of hydrogen as a fuel are not limited to space applications. Clean green energy provided by hydrogen may one day fuel airplanes, ships, and trucks on Earth, yielding enormous climate and economic benefits. By forming the scientific foundation of ZBO cryogenic fluid management for space exploration, the ZBOT science experiments and CFD model development will also help to reap the benefits of hydrogen as a fuel here on Earth.

Project Lead

Dr. Mohammad Kassemi (Dept Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Case Western Reserve University)

Sponsoring Organization

Biological and Physical Sciences (BPS) Division, NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD)

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet

What was once considered a climate holy grail comes with serious tradeoffs. The world wants more of it anyway.

First the plant stalk is harvested, shredded, and crushed. The extracted juice is then combined with bacteria and yeast in large bioreactors, where the sugars are metabolized and converted into ethanol and carbon dioxide. From there, the liquid is typically distilled to maximize ethanol concentration, before it is blended with gasoline.  You know the final products as biofuels — mostly made from food crops like sugarcane and corn, and endorsed by everyone from agricultural lobbyists to activists and billionaires. Biofuels were developed decades ago to be cheaper, greener alternatives to planet-polluting petrol. As adoption has expanded — now to the point of a pro-biofuel agenda being pushed this week at COP30 in Belém, Brazil — their environmental and food accessibility footprint has remained a source of fierce debate.  The governments of Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India are spearheading a new pledge calling for the rapid global expansion of biofuels as a commitment to decarbonizing transportation energy.  Though the text of the pledge itself is vague, as most COP pledges tend to be, the target embedded in an accompanying International Energy Agency report is clear: expand the global use of so-called sustainable fuels from 2024 levels by at least four times, so that by 2035, sustainable fuels cover 10 percent of all global road transport demand, 15 percent of aviation demand, and 35 percent of shipping fuel demand. By Friday, the last official day of COP30, at least 23 countries have joined the pledge — while Brazilian delegates have been working “hand in hand with industry groups” to get language backing biofuels into the final summit deal.  “Latin America, South East Asia, Africa — they need to improve their efficiency, their energy, and Brazil has a model for this [in its rollout of biofuels],” Roberto Rodrigues, Brazil’s special envoy for agriculture at the summit, said on a COP panel last weekend. As of the time of this story’s publication, the pro-biofuel language hadn’t made it into the latest draft text that outlines the main outcome of the summit released Friday — although it appears the summit could end without a deal.  Read Next At COP30 in Brazil, countries plan to armor themselves against a warming world Zoya Teirstein Though scientists continue to experiment with utilizing other raw materials for biofuels — a list which includes agricultural and forestry waste, cooking oils, and algae — the bulk of feedstocks almost exclusively come from the fields. Different types of food crops are used for different types of biofuels; sugary and starchy crops, such as sugar cane, wheat, and corn, are often made into ethanol; while oily crops, like soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, are largely used for biodiesel.  The cycle goes a little like this: Farmers, desperate to replace cropland lost to biofuel production, raze more forests and plow up more grasslands, resulting in deforestation that tends to release far more carbon than burning biofuels saves. But as large-scale production continues to expand, there may be insufficient land, water, and energy available for another big biofuel boom — prompting many researchers and climate activists to question whether countries should be aiming to scale these markets at all. (Thomson Reuters reported that global biofuel production has increased ninefold since 2000.) Biofuels account for the vast majority of “sustainable fuels” currently used worldwide. An analysis by a clean transport advocacy organization published last month found that, because of the indirect impacts to farming and land use, biofuels are responsible globally for 16 percent more CO2 emissions than the planet-polluting fossil fuels they replace. In fact, the report surmises that by 2030, biofuel crops could require land equivalent to the size of France. More than 40 million hectares of Earth’s cropland is already devoted to biofuel feedstocks, an area roughly the size of Paraguay. The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation, or EUDR, cites soybeans among the commodities driving deforestation worldwide. “While countries are right to transition away from fossil fuels, they also need to ensure their plans don’t trigger unintended consequences, such as more deforestation either at home or abroad,” said Janet Ranganathan, managing director of strategy, learning, and results at the World Resources Institute in a statement responding to the Belém pledge. She added that rapidly expanding global biofuel production would have “significant implications for the world’s land, especially without guardrails to prevent large-scale expansion of land dedicated to biofuels, which drives ecosystem loss.” Other environmental issues found to be associated with converting food crops into biofuels include water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, air pollution, and soil erosion. One study, conducted a decade ago, showed that, when accounting for all the inputs needed to produce different varieties of ethanol or biodiesel — machinery, seeds, water, electricity, fertilizers, transportation, and more — producing fuel-grade ethanol or biodiesel requires significantly more energy input than it creates.  Read Next ‘Everyone is exhausted’: First week of COP30 marked by frustration with slow progress Bob Berwyn, Inside Climate News Nonetheless, it’s not a shock to see Brazil betting big on biofuels at COP30. In Brazil, biofuels make up roughly a quarter of transportation fuels — a remarkably high proportion compared to most other countries. And that share, dominated by sugarcane ethanol, is still on an upward climb, with the Belém pledge evidence of the country’s intended trajectory.  A spokesperson from Brazil’s foreign affairs ministry told The Guardian that the “proponents of the pledge (which include Japan, Italy, India, among others) are calling upon countries to support quadrupling production and use of sustainable fuels — a group of gaseous and liquid fuels that include e-fuels, biogases, biofuels, hydrogen and its derivatives.” They added that the goal is based on the new IEA report that underscores the production increase as necessary to aggressively reduce emissions. That report suggests that if current and proposed national and international policies are implemented and fully legislated, global biofuel use and production would double by 2035. “The word ‘sustainable’ is not used lightly, neither in the report nor in the pledge,” the spokesperson said.  The issue, of course, is in how emissions footprints of something like ethanol fuel production are even measured. Much like many other climate sources, scientists argue that tracking greenhouse gas emissions linked to ethanol fuel should account for emissions at every stage — production, processing, distribution, and vehicle use. Yet that isn’t often the case: in fact, a 2024 paper found that Brazil’s national biofuel policy does not account for all direct and indirect emissions in its calculation.  The exclusions are evident of a larger trend, according to University of Minnesota environmental scientist Jason Hill. “Overall, either those studies have not included [direct and indirect emissions], or they found ways to spread those impacts over anticipated production, decades, centuries, or so forth, that tend to dilute those effects. So the accounting methods aren’t really consistent with what the best science shows,” said Hill, who studies the environmental and economic consequences of food, energy, and biofuel production.  In short: More biofuels means either more intensive agriculture on a smaller share of available cropland, which has its own detrimental environmental effects, or expansion of cropland, and the land-use emissions and environmental impacts that can carry. “Biofuel production today is already a bad idea. And doubling [that] is doubling down on an existing problem,” said Hill.  Read Next COP30 has big plans to save the rainforest. Indigenous activists say it’s not enough. Frida Garza & Miacel Spotted Elk Moreover, diverting crops like corn and soybeans from dinner plates to fuel tanks doesn’t just spark brutal competition for land and resources, it can also spike food prices and leave the world’s most vulnerable populations with less to eat.  A 2022 analysis of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, the world’s largest biofuel program, found that it has led to increased food prices for Americans, with corn prices rising by 30 percent and other crops such as soybean and wheat spiking by around 20 percent. This then set off a domino effect: Increasing annual nationwide fertilizer use by up to 8 percent and water quality degradants by up to 5 percent. The carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the mandate has ended up at least equaling the planet-polluting effects of gasoline.  “Biofuel mandates essentially create a baseline demand that can leave food crops by the wayside,” says Ginni Braich, a data scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder who has worked as a senior advisor to government clean technology and emission reduction programs. That’s because of the issue with supply and demand of food crops — higher competition for feedstocks hikes up the prices of food, feed, and farming inputs.  When there are biofuel mandates, which the IEA report underlying the Belém pledge recommends, demand remains inelastic — no matter the changes in yields, growing and weather conditions, prices, or markets. Say there is a huge drought that decimates crop yields, as one example, the baseline demand of biofuels still needs to be met despite depleted food stocks. In terms of supply, increasing growing area for biofuels typically means less area available to grow food crops — which can cause prices to surge alongside supply shortages, and spike costs of seed, inputs, and land. Nutritional implications should also be taken into account, according to Braich. Not only do people’s diets tend to shift when food gets more costly, but cropping patterns are already revealing adverse shifts in dietary diversity, which could be exacerbated by a further concentration on fewer crops. The Belém pledge, and Brazil’s intention to lead a global expansion of the biofuels market, does not bode well for people’s food accessibility nor for the future of the planet, warns Braich.  “It seems quite paradoxical for Brazil to promote the large-scale expansion of biofuels and also be seen as a protector of forests,” she said. “Is it better than decarbonization and fossil fuel divestment rhetoric without actual transition pathways? Yes, but in a lot of ways it is also greenwashing.” This story was originally published by Grist with the headline COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet on Nov 21, 2025.

Iran's Capital Has Run Out of Water, Forcing It to Move

The decision to move Iran’s capital is partly driven by climate change, but experts say decades of human error and action are also to blame

November 21, 20252 min readIran's Capital Is Moving. The Reason Is an Ecological CatastropheThe move is partly driven by climate change, but experts say decades of human error and action are also to blameBy Humberto Basilio edited by Claire CameronA dry water feature in Tehran on November 9, 2025 TTA KENARE/AFP/Getty ImagesTehran can no longer remain the capital of Iran amid a deepening ecological crisis and acute water shortage.The situation in Tehran is the result of “a perfect storm of climate change and corruption,” says Michael Rubin, a political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.“We no longer have a choice,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly told officials on Friday.On supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.Instead, Iranian officials are considering moving the capital to the country’s southern coast. But experts say the proposal does not change the reality for the nearly ten million people who live in Tehran, who are now suffering the consequences of a decades-long decline in water supply.Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture was rapidly draining its aquifers. The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One recent study found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover, says Darío Solano, a geoscientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.“We saw this coming,” says Solano.Other major cities like Cape Town, Mexico City, Jakarta and parts of California are also facing day zero scenarios as they sink and run out of water.This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Isfahan to Tabriz to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins, says Rubin. But this marks the first time the Iranian government has moved the capital because of an ecological catastrophe.Yet, Rubin says, “it would be a mistake to look at this only through the lens of climate change.” Water, land and wastewater mismanagement and corruption have made the crisis worse, he says. If the capital moves to the remote Makran coast in the south, it could cost more than $100 billion dollars. The region is known for its harsh climate and difficult terrain, and some experts have doubts about its viability as a national center. Relocating a capital is often driven more by politics than by environmental concerns, says Linda Shi, a social scientist and urban planner at Cornell University. “Climate change is not the thing that is causing it, but it is a convenient factor to blame in order to avoid taking responsibility” for poor political decisions, she says.It’s Time to Stand Up for ScienceIf you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

Flatwater Free Press and Grist hire Anila Yoganathan to cover climate change in Nebraska

Yoganathan will report local stories, which will be available to republish for free.

The Flatwater Free Press and Grist are pleased to announce the hire of reporter Anila Yoganathan to cover how climate change is impacting Nebraska communities, from worsening extreme weather to shifting energy systems and economies.  Yoganathan will be an employee of Flatwater and based in Omaha, with the two newsrooms splitting the costs of her salary as part of their new collaboration. Anila Yoganathan was born and raised in Georgia and graduated from the University of Georgia. She previously worked at the Atlanta Business Chronicle, covering everything from energy and manufacturing to infrastructure and economic development, and as an investigative reporter for the Knoxville News Sentinel in Tennessee. Her work has also appeared in the Associated Press and Atlanta Journal-Constitution, among other publications.  “We’re thrilled to welcome Anila and to partner with Grist on this important work,” said Matt Wynn, executive director of the Nebraska Journalism Trust. “Her reporting will help ensure Nebraska’s environmental and agricultural stories are told with the depth they deserve — and that they reach an audience that needs to hear them.” “I am so excited to learn more about the environment and energy landscape in Nebraska,” said Yoganathan. “My favorite part of the job is getting to know a community and telling their stories.” The hire marks the continued expansion of Grist’s Local News Initiative, which aims to bolster coverage of climate change in communities across the United States through partnerships with local newsrooms. Grist already has reporters embedded with WABE in Georgia, IPR in Michigan, WBEZ in Illinois, BPR in North Carolina, Verite News in Louisiana, and The Salt Lake Tribune in Utah. Yoganathan will be the seventh such reporter. Yoganathan will report local stories for Flatwater, which will be shared with the newsroom’s statewide and regional network of syndication partners. Grist will also adapt Yoganathan’s stories and bring them to its nationwide audience and publishing partners. “At a time when trust in journalism is eroding, Flatwater Free Press has managed to buck the trend and develop a deep connection with its Nebraska readers,” said Katherine Bagley, Grist’s editor-in-chief. “Combined with Anila’s investigative reporting skills and sharp eye for compelling environmental stories, we’re excited to bolster climate reporting in a state on the frontlines of a warming planet.”  This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Flatwater Free Press and Grist hire Anila Yoganathan to cover climate change in Nebraska on Nov 10, 2025.

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