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How a Trove of Whaling Logbooks Will Help Scientists Understand Our Changing Climate

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Monday, June 3, 2024

When the U.S. whaling industry was at its peak in the middle of the 19th century, crews relied heavily on the wind. Oil derived from captured whales helped power the machinery of the Industrial Revolution, but steam engines weren’t yet widely in use at sea. Only gusts and currents could propel these salty sailors to their prey and potential riches. Captains and crew members thus kept metronomic records of the wind as they chased whales across the world’s oceans. With little instrumental data available, subjective observations—a “light breeze,” a “strong gale”—often led logbook entries. The descriptions weren’t nearly as compelling as the narratives of skirmishes and illustrations of whales and ships that sometimes shared those pages. But these dry weather reports from the distant past now have their own dramatic significance: They’re helping scientists assess how the climate has changed in some of the most remote parts of the world. Analyzing a trove of 4,200 logbooks from New England whaling vessels, a group of researchers in New England has begun turning all those qualitative descriptions into quantitative data. Using the Beaufort Wind Scale, which was created in 1805 by a British admiral and assigns wind speeds to descriptive terms, they’re confident that those seemingly unscientific mentions of, say, light breezes, often correspond to relatively consistent ranges of wind strength. Through these translations and comparisons with modern instrumental data, they’re learning about how global wind patterns have shifted since U.S. whaling’s heyday in the 18th and 19th centuries. “I wasn’t entirely sure whether it would work,” says Caroline Ummenhofer, a physical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Falmouth, Massachusetts, and a co-author of a paper on the project in the journal Mainsheet. “What we have seen now is that, actually, it works better than we expected.” This logbook from the Smyrna, a New Bedford, Massachusetts, bark that sailed in the Indian Ocean during the 1850s, contains typical descriptions of the wind (“moderate,” “light”) that researchers can then translate into numbers using the Beaufort Wind Scale. Jayne Doucette © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution The researchers are still in the early stages of combing through millions of entries, but their findings thus far have often aligned with digital re-analysis products that use data to estimate past weather, including the wind. “That gives us more confidence, because they are completely independent,” Ummenhofer says. “None of the whaler data goes into this atmospheric re-analysis.” She hopes these records will be incorporated eventually. The re-analysis products use observations to tweak their models, but they’re missing long-term historical data from areas of the ocean where military and merchant marine ships didn’t travel. The logbooks from New England can help fill some of those gaps. During hunts, whaling vessels diverged from established sea lanes, venturing into parts of the world’s oceans where little observational data exists as they followed right, sperm and humpback whales, among others. “They’re going to places where other ships have no reason to go, and they’re recording the weather data. So that data that they have, scientifically speaking, is pretty much gold,” says Timothy Walker, a maritime and early modern European historian at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth and a co-author of the Mainsheet paper. The focus on voyages through little-trafficked areas of the world’s oceans—including one in particular—distinguishes this project from past analyses of whaling logbook records. “This is not totally new research. Ship logs have been examined before to reconstruct weather and climate in the Pacific and in the Atlantic, but not so far in the Indian Ocean,” says Alexander Gershunov, a research meteorologist at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography who isn’t involved with the project. Logbook analysis belongs to the burgeoning interdisciplinary field of historical climatology. While paleoclimatologists have long examined environmental sources, such as tree rings and sediment deposits, to learn more about past climates, the study of artifacts and documents to do so is still gaining acceptance. “I think we’re getting better as a community to recognize the value of this unconventional data,” Ummenhofer says. Scientists have previously discovered, for example, that a strong belt of westerly winds known to mariners as the “Roaring Forties”—referring to the latitudes between 40 and 50 degrees south of the equator—has moved farther south toward Antarctica. Those winds bring critical rain-bearing weather systems with them and leave southern Africa and Australia more prone to droughts. But with few landmasses in that latitudinal range to site meteorological stations, scientists don’t have instrumental data to determine when, exactly, that shift in the wind began. Satellites weren’t invented until the middle of the 20th century, so the broader historical context for this phenomenon has been absent. Whaling records will clarify where ships encountered the strongest westerlies in the Southern Ocean and how they varied from year to year and decade to decade, Ummenhofer says. They’ll also shed more light on how trade winds in the tropical Pacific varied before the 1900s and how the strength and timing of the monsoon in the Indian Ocean has changed over the past 250 years. “They’re going to be able to reconstruct not just climate variability, but actual weather events and severe weather over the ocean back to the middle of the 18th century, way before instrumental data was broadly available,” says Gershunov. When they discover novel weather events, Gershunov says, the team should check them against environmental clues to see if they’re reflected in the natural world. He thinks the group’s findings will be superior to many “proxy” reconstructions that rely wholly on nature’s response to weather, rather than the weather itself, to draw conclusions about the past. “They’re based on notes taken by trained professionals who were specifically observing the ocean and the weather in a systematic and regular way,” he says. Ummenhofer had been working with environmental archives, including corals and stalagmites, when Walker contacted her several years ago about a human-centric one. He’d started working with the New Bedford Whaling Museum and realized its “extraordinary riches”—about 2,500 whaling logbooks, the largest collection in the world. A few blocks away in the city forever linked to Moby-Dick, the New Bedford Free Public Library housed around 500 of its own, and the Providence Public Library, Mystic Seaport Museum and Nantucket Historical Association also had hundreds stashed in each of their archives. Walker had spent time in graduate school sailing and knew these logbooks—the most important document carried on a ship, as insurance claims depended on its contents—would contain weather data of great interest to an ocean climate scientist like Ummenhofer. “Within about five minutes of chatting with her, her eyes lit up,” Walker recalls. Entries include information about geographic coordinates, temperature, precipitation and the wind. “There’s just no end to the richness that can be found in these records,” Walker says. Critically, by the late 1700s, these accounts had become increasingly systematic about tracking wind’s direction and force, according to Walker, mirroring the practices of European navies and other vessels to reach their targets more efficiently. With the widespread adoption of the Beaufort Wind Scale shortly thereafter, the mention of a “moderate breeze,” for example, could reliably mean that there were small waves, many whitecaps and wind gusting in the neighborhood of 13 to 18 miles per hour. Machines can’t read this yellowed, paleographic writing. So, with funding fits and starts, Walker and a team of student researchers have pored over the logbooks and documented the descriptions themselves. Sometimes the researchers have to make a judgment call when language differs slightly from the Beaufort Wind Scale. But they’re checking the precision of the entries by noting when two whaling ships crossed paths at sea during “gams,” then examining the ships’ separate observations of the area’s weather. “I don’t think we will ever get to the point where we can say, ‘This whaler on the 5th of January, 1822, in this spot in the Southern Ocean, experienced 3.52 meters per second [of wind],’” Ummenhofer says. “But I don’t think we need to to be able to really say something about shifting wind patterns.” Gershunov says some scientists may object to extrapolating too much from the logbooks, but he believes the researchers’ methods are sound due to the consistency of the records. “Even though they’re qualitative, they were made in a certain system that lends itself to quantification,” he says. Machines can’t yet read the yellowed paleography in logbooks, so researchers must scour pages for information about the wind’s direction and force, as well as other notes on the weather, and enter them manually into a database. Jayne Doucette © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Rainfall, the team’s next focus, will be more challenging than wind to quantify, Ummenhofer acknowledges. Captains and crew members often based their observations on personal experiences rather than a standard measure. But researchers can glean something from mere mentions of precipitation, Ummenhofer says, similar to how scientists with the Old Weather project used historical logbooks to chronicle the presence of sea ice in the Arctic. For now, Walker’s researchers are recording any weather-related data they can find. But sometimes they get distracted from the task at hand. Within the entries, “there’s no shortage of drama,” Walker says, with allusions to shipmates engaging in sexual activity with each other and narratives of men jumping ship and brawling. On the Atlantic, a ship that left New Bedford for the Cape of Good Hope and the Indian Ocean in 1865, an African American cook stabbed a sailor of European descent to death, saying the seafarer had called him a racial slur. The cook was transferred to a different boat and tried in the U.S. for murder. But the Atlantic’s trials weren’t through: Another ship rammed into it in the middle of the night, destroying its head rig, among other parts. It barely made it back from the depths of the Indian Ocean to a port in Mauritius after the collision. A decade later, after lengthy, costly repairs, a third of its crew wouldn’t make it back from sea at all after two of its smaller hunting boats went missing while searching for whales in a storm. Whales figure prominently in the logbooks, too. In the margins, whalers depicted their captures with detailed illustrations; when they sighted an animal but didn’t catch it, whalers only drew its tail. Their prey could have helped sequester the rising carbon emissions from the Industrial Revolution. Like trees, whales store carbon, and when they die, that carbon sinks along with their carcasses to the ocean floor. The U.S. whaling industry, which faded by the 1920s, disrupted this natural cycle. But by merely documenting their experiences in unfamiliar waters, whalers have unwittingly allowed generations later to learn more about how the climate is changing. “I find that quite awe-inspiring, to be able to say, ‘Wow, there was someone 250 years ago, describing something about the weather conditions, definitely not knowing what this could be used for down the track,’” Ummenhofer says. “I think that that’s pretty amazing.” Get the latest Science stories in your inbox.

Researchers are examining more than 4,200 New England documents to turn descriptions of the wind into data

When the U.S. whaling industry was at its peak in the middle of the 19th century, crews relied heavily on the wind. Oil derived from captured whales helped power the machinery of the Industrial Revolution, but steam engines weren’t yet widely in use at sea. Only gusts and currents could propel these salty sailors to their prey and potential riches.

Captains and crew members thus kept metronomic records of the wind as they chased whales across the world’s oceans. With little instrumental data available, subjective observations—a “light breeze,” a “strong gale”—often led logbook entries. The descriptions weren’t nearly as compelling as the narratives of skirmishes and illustrations of whales and ships that sometimes shared those pages.

But these dry weather reports from the distant past now have their own dramatic significance: They’re helping scientists assess how the climate has changed in some of the most remote parts of the world.

Analyzing a trove of 4,200 logbooks from New England whaling vessels, a group of researchers in New England has begun turning all those qualitative descriptions into quantitative data. Using the Beaufort Wind Scale, which was created in 1805 by a British admiral and assigns wind speeds to descriptive terms, they’re confident that those seemingly unscientific mentions of, say, light breezes, often correspond to relatively consistent ranges of wind strength. Through these translations and comparisons with modern instrumental data, they’re learning about how global wind patterns have shifted since U.S. whaling’s heyday in the 18th and 19th centuries.

“I wasn’t entirely sure whether it would work,” says Caroline Ummenhofer, a physical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Falmouth, Massachusetts, and a co-author of a paper on the project in the journal Mainsheet. “What we have seen now is that, actually, it works better than we expected.”

Smyrna Whaling Logbook
This logbook from the Smyrna, a New Bedford, Massachusetts, bark that sailed in the Indian Ocean during the 1850s, contains typical descriptions of the wind (“moderate,” “light”) that researchers can then translate into numbers using the Beaufort Wind Scale. Jayne Doucette © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

The researchers are still in the early stages of combing through millions of entries, but their findings thus far have often aligned with digital re-analysis products that use data to estimate past weather, including the wind. “That gives us more confidence, because they are completely independent,” Ummenhofer says. “None of the whaler data goes into this atmospheric re-analysis.”

She hopes these records will be incorporated eventually. The re-analysis products use observations to tweak their models, but they’re missing long-term historical data from areas of the ocean where military and merchant marine ships didn’t travel. The logbooks from New England can help fill some of those gaps. During hunts, whaling vessels diverged from established sea lanes, venturing into parts of the world’s oceans where little observational data exists as they followed right, sperm and humpback whales, among others.

“They’re going to places where other ships have no reason to go, and they’re recording the weather data. So that data that they have, scientifically speaking, is pretty much gold,” says Timothy Walker, a maritime and early modern European historian at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth and a co-author of the Mainsheet paper.

The focus on voyages through little-trafficked areas of the world’s oceans—including one in particular—distinguishes this project from past analyses of whaling logbook records.

“This is not totally new research. Ship logs have been examined before to reconstruct weather and climate in the Pacific and in the Atlantic, but not so far in the Indian Ocean,” says Alexander Gershunov, a research meteorologist at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography who isn’t involved with the project.

Logbook analysis belongs to the burgeoning interdisciplinary field of historical climatology. While paleoclimatologists have long examined environmental sources, such as tree rings and sediment deposits, to learn more about past climates, the study of artifacts and documents to do so is still gaining acceptance.

“I think we’re getting better as a community to recognize the value of this unconventional data,” Ummenhofer says.

Scientists have previously discovered, for example, that a strong belt of westerly winds known to mariners as the “Roaring Forties”—referring to the latitudes between 40 and 50 degrees south of the equator—has moved farther south toward Antarctica. Those winds bring critical rain-bearing weather systems with them and leave southern Africa and Australia more prone to droughts. But with few landmasses in that latitudinal range to site meteorological stations, scientists don’t have instrumental data to determine when, exactly, that shift in the wind began. Satellites weren’t invented until the middle of the 20th century, so the broader historical context for this phenomenon has been absent.

Whaling records will clarify where ships encountered the strongest westerlies in the Southern Ocean and how they varied from year to year and decade to decade, Ummenhofer says. They’ll also shed more light on how trade winds in the tropical Pacific varied before the 1900s and how the strength and timing of the monsoon in the Indian Ocean has changed over the past 250 years.

“They’re going to be able to reconstruct not just climate variability, but actual weather events and severe weather over the ocean back to the middle of the 18th century, way before instrumental data was broadly available,” says Gershunov.

When they discover novel weather events, Gershunov says, the team should check them against environmental clues to see if they’re reflected in the natural world. He thinks the group’s findings will be superior to many “proxy” reconstructions that rely wholly on nature’s response to weather, rather than the weather itself, to draw conclusions about the past.

“They’re based on notes taken by trained professionals who were specifically observing the ocean and the weather in a systematic and regular way,” he says.

Ummenhofer had been working with environmental archives, including corals and stalagmites, when Walker contacted her several years ago about a human-centric one. He’d started working with the New Bedford Whaling Museum and realized its “extraordinary riches”—about 2,500 whaling logbooks, the largest collection in the world. A few blocks away in the city forever linked to Moby-Dick, the New Bedford Free Public Library housed around 500 of its own, and the Providence Public Library, Mystic Seaport Museum and Nantucket Historical Association also had hundreds stashed in each of their archives.

Walker had spent time in graduate school sailing and knew these logbooks—the most important document carried on a ship, as insurance claims depended on its contents—would contain weather data of great interest to an ocean climate scientist like Ummenhofer. “Within about five minutes of chatting with her, her eyes lit up,” Walker recalls. Entries include information about geographic coordinates, temperature, precipitation and the wind.

“There’s just no end to the richness that can be found in these records,” Walker says.

Critically, by the late 1700s, these accounts had become increasingly systematic about tracking wind’s direction and force, according to Walker, mirroring the practices of European navies and other vessels to reach their targets more efficiently. With the widespread adoption of the Beaufort Wind Scale shortly thereafter, the mention of a “moderate breeze,” for example, could reliably mean that there were small waves, many whitecaps and wind gusting in the neighborhood of 13 to 18 miles per hour.

Machines can’t read this yellowed, paleographic writing. So, with funding fits and starts, Walker and a team of student researchers have pored over the logbooks and documented the descriptions themselves. Sometimes the researchers have to make a judgment call when language differs slightly from the Beaufort Wind Scale. But they’re checking the precision of the entries by noting when two whaling ships crossed paths at sea during “gams,” then examining the ships’ separate observations of the area’s weather.

“I don’t think we will ever get to the point where we can say, ‘This whaler on the 5th of January, 1822, in this spot in the Southern Ocean, experienced 3.52 meters per second [of wind],’” Ummenhofer says. “But I don’t think we need to to be able to really say something about shifting wind patterns.”

Gershunov says some scientists may object to extrapolating too much from the logbooks, but he believes the researchers’ methods are sound due to the consistency of the records.

“Even though they’re qualitative, they were made in a certain system that lends itself to quantification,” he says.

Computer and Whaling Logbook
Machines can’t yet read the yellowed paleography in logbooks, so researchers must scour pages for information about the wind’s direction and force, as well as other notes on the weather, and enter them manually into a database. Jayne Doucette © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Rainfall, the team’s next focus, will be more challenging than wind to quantify, Ummenhofer acknowledges. Captains and crew members often based their observations on personal experiences rather than a standard measure. But researchers can glean something from mere mentions of precipitation, Ummenhofer says, similar to how scientists with the Old Weather project used historical logbooks to chronicle the presence of sea ice in the Arctic.

For now, Walker’s researchers are recording any weather-related data they can find. But sometimes they get distracted from the task at hand. Within the entries, “there’s no shortage of drama,” Walker says, with allusions to shipmates engaging in sexual activity with each other and narratives of men jumping ship and brawling.

On the Atlantic, a ship that left New Bedford for the Cape of Good Hope and the Indian Ocean in 1865, an African American cook stabbed a sailor of European descent to death, saying the seafarer had called him a racial slur. The cook was transferred to a different boat and tried in the U.S. for murder. But the Atlantic’s trials weren’t through: Another ship rammed into it in the middle of the night, destroying its head rig, among other parts. It barely made it back from the depths of the Indian Ocean to a port in Mauritius after the collision. A decade later, after lengthy, costly repairs, a third of its crew wouldn’t make it back from sea at all after two of its smaller hunting boats went missing while searching for whales in a storm.

Whales figure prominently in the logbooks, too. In the margins, whalers depicted their captures with detailed illustrations; when they sighted an animal but didn’t catch it, whalers only drew its tail.

Their prey could have helped sequester the rising carbon emissions from the Industrial Revolution. Like trees, whales store carbon, and when they die, that carbon sinks along with their carcasses to the ocean floor.

The U.S. whaling industry, which faded by the 1920s, disrupted this natural cycle. But by merely documenting their experiences in unfamiliar waters, whalers have unwittingly allowed generations later to learn more about how the climate is changing.

“I find that quite awe-inspiring, to be able to say, ‘Wow, there was someone 250 years ago, describing something about the weather conditions, definitely not knowing what this could be used for down the track,’” Ummenhofer says. “I think that that’s pretty amazing.”

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EPA cements delay of Biden-era methane rule for oil and gas

The Trump administration on Wednesday cemented its delay of Biden-era regulations on planet-warming methane coming from the oil and gas industry. Earlier this year, the administration issued an “interim final rule” that pushed back compliance deadlines for the Biden-era climate rule by 18 months. On Wednesday, it announced a final rule that locks in the delay. The delays apply...

The Trump administration on Wednesday cemented its delay of Biden-era regulations on planet-warming methane coming from the oil and gas industry. Earlier this year, the administration issued an “interim final rule” that pushed back compliance deadlines for the Biden-era climate rule by 18 months. On Wednesday, it announced a final rule that locks in the delay. The delays apply to requirements to install certain technologies meant to reduce emissions. It also applies to timelines for states to create plans for cutting methane emissions from existing oil and gas.  Methane is a gas that is about 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at heating the planet over a 100-year period. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said that the administration was acting in order to protect U.S. energy production.  “The previous administration used oil and gas standards as a weapon to shut down development and manufacturing in the United States,” Zeldin said in a written statement.  “By finalizing compliance extensions, EPA is ensuring unrealistic regulations do not prevent America from unleashing energy dominance,” he added. However, environmental advocates say that the delay will result in more pollution. “The methane standards are already working to reduce pollution, protect people’s health, and prevent the needless waste of American energy. The rule released today means millions of Americans will be exposed to dangerous pollution for another year and a half, for no good reason,” Grace Smith, senior attorney at Environmental Defense Fund, said in a written statement.  Meanwhile, the delay comes as the Trump administration reconsiders the rule altogether, having put it on a hit list of regulations earlier this year. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Analysis-Brazil Environment Minister, Climate Summit Star, Faces Political Struggle at Home

By Manuela AndreoniBELEM, Brazil (Reuters) -Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva fought back tears as global diplomats applauded her for...

BELEM, Brazil (Reuters) -Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva fought back tears as global diplomats applauded her for several minutes on Saturday in the closing plenary of the COP30 global climate summit."We've made progress, albeit modestly," she told delegates gathered in the Amazon rainforest city of Belem, before raising a fist over her head defiantly. "The courage to confront the climate crisis comes from persistence and collective effort."It was a moment of catharsis for the Brazilian hosts in a tense hall where several nations vented frustration with a deal that failed to mention fossil fuels - even as they cheered more funds for developing nations adapting to climate change.Despite the bittersweet outcome, COP30 capped years of work by the environment minister and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to restore Brazil's leadership on global climate policy, dented by a far-right predecessor who denied climate science.Back in Brasilia, a harsher political reality looms. Congress has been pushing to dismantle much of the country's environmental permitting system. Organized crime in the Amazon is also a problem, and people seeking to clear forest acres have found new ways to infiltrate and thwart groups touting sustainable development.All this poses new threats to Brazil's vast ecosystems, forcing Lula and his minister to wage a rearguard battle to defend the world's largest rainforest. Scientists and policy experts warn that action is needed to discourage deforestation before a changing climate turns the Amazon into a tinderbox. Tensions have been mounting between a conservative Congress and the leftist Lula ahead of next year's general election. Forest land is often at heightened risk during election years.Still, Silva insists Brazil can deliver on its promise to reduce deforestation to zero by 2030.  "If I'm in the eye of the storm," she told Reuters, "I have to survive."Silva, born in 1958 in the Amazonian state of Acre to an impoverished family of rubber tappers, was more rock star than policymaker for many at COP30. Like Lula, she overcame hunger and scant early schooling to achieve global recognition. As his environment minister from 2003 to 2008, she sharply slowed the destruction of her native rainforest.After more than a decade of estrangement from Lula's Workers Party, Silva reunited with him in 2022. Many environmentalists consider her return the most important move on climate policy in Lula's current mandate, which he has cast his agenda as an "ecological transformation" of Brazil's economy.It is a stark contrast from surging deforestation under Lula's right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, who cheered on mining and ranching in the rainforest.Still, Lula's actual environmental record has been ambiguous, said Juliano Assuncao, executive director of the Climate Policy Institute think tank in Brazil. "What we have at times is an Environment Ministry deeply committed to these issues, but at critical moments it hasn't been able to count on the support of the federal government in the way it should," he said.Lula's government has halved deforestation in the Amazon, making it easier to fine deforesters and choke their access to public credit. New policies have encouraged reforestation and sustainable farming practices, such as cattle tracing.Still, critics say Lula's government has not done enough to stop Congress as it undercut environmental protections and blocked recognition of Indigenous lands. Lawmakers have also attacked a private-sector agreement protecting the Amazon from the advance of soy farming.Lula's environmental critics concede he has limited leverage.When a government agency was slow to license oil exploration off the Amazon coast, the Senate pushed legislation to overhaul environmental permitting. Lula vetoed much of the bill, but lawmakers vowed to restore at least part of it this week. Similar tensions in Lula's last mandate prompted Silva to quit over differences with other cabinet ministers. This time around, Lula has been quick to defend her and vice-versa. During a recent interview in her Brasilia office, Silva suggested that Lula had not changed, but rather that a warming planet has ratcheted up the urgency of climate policy."Reality has changed," she said. "People who are guided by scientific criteria, by common sense, by ethics, have followed that gradual change." HIGHER TEMPERATURES, MORE GUNSEarth's hottest year on record was 2024, fueling massive fires in the Amazon rainforest that for the first time erased more tree cover than chainsaws and bulldozers.Brazilians hoping to preserve the Amazon must struggle against more than just a warmer climate and a skeptical Congress. Organized crime has grown in the region after years of tight funding left fewer federal personnel to fight back, said Jair Schmitt, who oversees enforcement at Brazil's environmental protection agency Ibama. Ibama agents have been caught more often in shootouts with gangs, he added, suggesting more guns than ever in the region. "Rifles weren't this easy to find before," he said.Another challenge: Illegal deforesters have also infiltrated Amazon supply chains touting their sustainability, from biofuels to carbon credits, Reuters has reported. To overcome them, Brazil will need to steel its political will, said Marcio Astrini, the head of Climate Observatory, an advocacy group. Other than that, he added, "we have everything it takes to succeed."(Reporting by Manuela AndreoniEditing by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio)Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.

Drought killer: California storms fill reservoirs, build up Sierra snowpack

It's been the wettest November on record for several Southern California cities. But experts say that despite the auspicious start, it's still too soon to say how the rest of California's traditional rainy season will shape up.

A string of early season storms that drenched Californians last week lifted much of the state out of drought and significantly reduced the risk of wildfires, experts say.It’s been the wettest November on record for Southland cities such as Van Nuys and San Luis Obispo. Santa Barbara has received an eye-popping 9.5 inches of rain since Oct. 1, marking the city’s wettest start to the water year on record. And overall the state is sitting at 186% of its average rain so far this water year, according to the Department of Water Resources.But experts say that despite the auspicious start, it’s still too soon to say how the rest of California’s traditional rainy season will shape up.“The overall impact on our water supply is TBD [to be determined] is the best way to put it,” said Jeff Mount, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California’s Water Policy Center. “We haven’t even really gotten into the wet season yet.”California receives the vast bulk of its rain and snow between December and March, trapping the runoff in its reservoirs to mete out during the hot, dry seasons that follow. Lights from bumper-to-bumper traffic along Aliso Street reflect off the federal courthouse in Los Angeles on a rainy night. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times) Those major reservoirs are now filled to 100% to 145% of average for this date. That’s not just from the recent storms — early season rains tend to soak mostly into the parched ground — but also because California is building on three prior wet winters, state climatologist Michael Anderson said.A record-breaking wet 2022-23 winter ended the state’s driest three-year period on record. That was followed by two years that were wetter than average for Northern California but drier than average for the southern half, amounting to roughly average precipitation statewide.According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, issued last week before the last of the recent storms had fully soaked the state, more than 70% of California was drought-free, compared with 49% a week before. Nearly 47% of Los Angeles County emerged from moderate drought, with the other portions improving to abnormally dry, the map shows. Abnormally dry conditions also ended in Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and much of Kern counties, along with portions of Central California, according to the map. In the far southern and southeastern reaches of the state, conditions improved but still range from abnormally dry to moderate drought, the map shows.The early season storms will play an important role in priming watersheds for the rest of the winter, experts said. By soaking soils, they’ll enable future rainstorms to more easily run off into reservoirs and snow to accumulate in the Sierra Nevada.“Building the snowpack on hydrated watersheds will help us avoid losing potential spring runoff to dry soils later in the season,” Anderson wrote in an email.Snowpack is crucial to sustaining California through its hot, dry seasons because it runs down into waterways as it melts, topping off the reservoirs and providing at least 30% of the state’s water supply, said Andrew Schwartz, director of UC Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Lab.The research station at Donner Pass has recorded 22 inches of snow. Although that’s about 89% of normal for this date, warmer temperatures mean that much of it has already melted, Schwartz said. The snow water equivalent, which measures how much water the snow would produce if it were to melt, now stands at 50%, he said.“That’s really something that tells the tale, so far, of this season,” he said. “We’ve had plenty of rain across the Sierra, but not as much snowfall as we would ordinarily hope for up to this point.”This dynamic has become increasingly common with climate change, Schwartz said. Snow is often developing later in the season and melting earlier, and more precipitation is falling as rain, he said. Because reservoirs need to leave some room in the winter for flood mitigation, they aren’t always able to capture all this ill-timed runoff, he said.And the earlier the snow melts, the more time plants and soils have to dry out in the summer heat, priming the landscape for large wildfires, Schwartz said. Although Northern California has been spared massive fires for the last few seasons, Schwartz fears that luck could run out if the region doesn’t receive at least an average amount snow this year.For now, long-range forecasts are calling for equal chances of wet and dry conditions this winter, Mount said. What happens in the next few months will be key. California depends on just a few strong atmospheric river storms to provide moisture; as little as five to seven can end up being responsible for more than half of the year’s water supply, he said.“We’re living on the edge all the time,” he said. “A handful of storms make up the difference of whether we have a dry year or a wet year.”Although the state’s drought picture has improved for the moment, scientists caution that conditions across the West are trending hotter and drier because of the burning of fossil fuels and resultant climate change. In addition to importing water from Northern California via the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, Southern California relies on water from the Colorado River. That waterway continues to be in shortage, with its largest reservoir only about one-third full.What’s more, research has shown that as the planet has warmed, the atmosphere has become thirstier, sucking more moisture from plants and soils and ensuring that dry years are drier. At the same time, there’s healthy debate over whether the same phenomenon is also making wet periods wetter, as warmer air can hold more moisture, potentially supercharging storms.As a result, swings between wet and dry on a year-to-year basis — and even within a year — seem to be getting bigger in California and elsewhere, Mount said. That increase in uncertainty has made managing water supplies more difficult overall, he said.Still, because of its climate, California has plenty of experience dealing with such extremes, said Jay Lund, professor emeritus of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis.“We always have to be preparing for floods and preparing for drought, no matter how wet or dry it is.”Staff writer Ian James contributed to this report.

Indigenous People Reflect On What It Meant To Participate In COP30 Climate Talks

Many who attended the UN summit in the Amazon liked the solidarity and small wins, but some felt the talks fell short on representation and true climate action.

BELEM, Brazil (AP) — Indigenous people filled the streets, paddled the waterways and protested at the heart of the venue to make their voices heard during the United Nations climate talks that were supposed to give them a voice like never before at the annual conference.As the talks, called COP30, concluded Saturday in Belem, Brazil, Indigenous people reflected on what the conference meant to them and whether they were heard.Brazilian leaders had high hopes that the summit, taking place in the Amazon, would empower the people who inhabit the land and protect the biodiversity of the world’s largest rainforest, which helps stave off climate change as its trees absorb carbon pollution that heats the planet.Many Indigenous people who attended the talks felt strengthened by the solidarity with tribes from other countries and some appreciated small wins in the final outcome. But for many, the talks fell short on representation, ambition and true action on climate issues affecting Indigenous people.“This was a COP where we were visible but not empowered,” said Thalia Yarina Cachimuel, a Kichwa-Otavalo member of A Wisdom Keepers Delegation, a group of Indigenous people from around the world.Some language wins but nothing on fossil fuelsFrom left: Taily Terena, Gustavo Ulcue Campo, Bina Laprem and Sarah Olsvig attend an Indigenous peoples forum on climate change at the COP30 UN Climate Summit, on Nov. 21, 2025, in Belem, Brazil.Andre Penner via Associated PressThe first paragraph of the main political text acknowledges “the rights of Indigenous Peoples, as well as their land rights and traditional knowledge.”Taily Terena, an Indigenous woman from the Terena nation in Brazil, said she was happy because the text for the first time mentioned those rights explicitly.But Mindahi Bastida, an Otomí-Toltec member of A Wisdom Keepers Delegation, said countries should have pushed harder for agreements on how to phase out fuels like oil, gas and coal “and not to see nature as merchandise, but to see it as sacred.”Several nations pushed for a road map to curtail use of fossil fuels, which when burned release greenhouse gases that warm the planet. Saturday’s final decision left out any mention of fossil fuels, leaving many countries disappointed.Brazil also launched a financial mechanism that countries could donate to, which was supposed to help incentivize nations with lots of forest to keep those ecosystems intact.Although the initiative received monetary pledges from a few countries, the project and the idea of creating a market for carbon are false solutions that “don’t stop pollution, they just move it around,” said Jacob Johns, a Wisdom Keeper of the Akimel O’Otham and Hopi nations.“They hand corporations a license to keep drilling, keep burning, keep destroying, so long as they can point to an offset written on paper. It’s the same colonial logic dressed up as climate policy,” Johns said.Concerns over tokenismBrazil Indigenous Peoples Minister Sonia Guajajara (R) poses for a selfie while walking through the COP30 UN Climate Summit venue, on Nov. 17, 2025, in Belem, Brazil.Andre Penner via Associated PressFrom the beginning of the conference, some Indigenous attendees were concerned visibility isn’t the same as true power. At the end, that sentiment lingered.“What we have seen at this COP is a focus on symbolic presence rather than enabling the full and effective participation of Indigenous Peoples,” Sara Olsvig, chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, wrote in a message after the conference concluded.Edson Krenak, Brazil manager for Indigenous rights group Cultural Survival and member of the Krenak people, didn’t think negotiators did enough to visit forests or understand the communities living there. He also didn’t believe the 900 Indigenous people given access to the main venue was enough.Sônia Guajajara, Brazil’s minister of Indigenous peoples, who is Indigenous herself, framed the convention differently.“It is undeniable that this is the largest and best COP in terms of Indigenous participation and protagonism,” she said.Protests showed power of Indigenous solidarityIndigenous leader and climate activist Txai Surui (R) shouts slogans while leaving a plenary session during the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belem, Brazil, on Nov. 21, 2025. Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty ImagesWhile the decisions by delegates left some Indigenous attendees feeling dismissed, many said they felt empowered by participating in demonstrations outside the venue.When the summit began on Nov. 10, Paulo André Paz de Lima, an Amazonian Indigenous leader, thought his tribe and others didn’t have access to COP30. During the first week, he and a group of demonstrators broke through the barrier to get inside the venue. Authorities quickly intervened and stopped their advancement.De Lima said that act helped Indigenous people amplify their voices.“After breaking the barrier, we were able to enter COP, get into the Blue Zone and express our needs,” he said, referring to the official negotiation area. “We got closer (to the negotiations), got more visibility.”The meaning of protest at this COP wasn’t just to get the attention of non-Indigenous people, it also was intended as a way for Indigenous people to commune with each other.On the final night before an agreement was reached, a small group with banners walked inside the venue, protesting instances of violence and environmental destruction from the recent killing of a Guarani youth on his own territory to the proposed Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project in Canada.“We have to come together to show up, you know? Because they need to hear us,” Leandro Karaí of the Guarani people of South America said of the solidarity among Indigenous groups. “When we’re together with others, we’re stronger.“They sang to the steady beat of a drum, locked arms in a line and marched down the long hall of the COP venue to the exit, breaking the silence in the corridors as negotiators remained deadlocked inside.Then they emerged, voices raised, under a yellow sky.

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