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As Hurricanes Bear Down and Get Stronger, Can a $34 Billion Plan Save Texas?

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Thursday, August 8, 2024

Illustration by Emily Lankiewicz / Images via public domain / Library of Congress / FEMA / NASA / Carl & Ann Purcell / Getty Images After Hurricane Ike destroyed thousands of homes and inflicted an estimated $30 billion in damages in 2008, engineers hatched an ambitious plan to protect southeast Texas and its coastal refineries and shipping routes from violent storms. The $34 billion collaboration spearheaded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is a harbinger of the type of massive public works projects that could be required to protect coastal cities like New York and Miami as sea levels rise and hurricanes become less predictable and more severe due to climate change. In this episode of “There’s More to That,” Smithsonian magazine contributor and Texas native Xander Peters reflects on his experiences growing up in a hurricane corridor and tells us how the wildly ambitious effort came together. Then, Eric Sanderson, an ecological historian, tells us how the project could be applied to other low-lying coastal cities. A transcript is below. To subscribe to “There’s More to That,” and to listen to past episodes on how a new generation of high-end West African restaurants is revealing the roots of “Southern” cuisine, why Colombian conservationists are now trying to sterilize the hippos descended from drug kingpin Pablo Escobar’s personal menagerie, what humans’ great acumen for sweating has contributed to our evolution and more, find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Chris Klimek: What part of Texas are you from? Xander Peters: I’m over here in East Texas. We’re about 30 miles from the Louisiana border. Klimek: Xander Peters is a contributor to Smithsonian magazine. Peters: It’s a real small town, about 2,000 people. Klimek: What’s life like there? Peters: As a 33-year-old single guy? Kind of boring at times, but it’s home, you know. Not a lot of people move here, but not a lot of people leave, either. So maybe that speaks for itself. Klimek: What’s the geography like? Peters: It’s marshy. It’s wet. We’re kind of the last stretch of the Louisiana swamp, as we all know it. So it’s a wet, humid, difficult place at times. Klimek: One of the constants in Xander’s life growing up in East Texas was hurricanes. Peters: The most memorable was in 2005. Hurricane Rita pretty much was a direct impact to the region. I think it was my freshman year of high school. The power was out for three or four weeks. Society literally shut down. It was hard to get gas. You couldn’t really get groceries. Of course, there was Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the list goes on. But it’s a fact of life here. Klimek: This area has already been impacted by hurricanes this summer, and there may be more to come. In July, Hurricane Beryl left millions without power in the dangerously high heat, leading to more than 20 deaths. Local officials can’t prevent these big storms, but they can try to prevent the damage, which is why one of the most ambitious and expensive infrastructure projects in the country is in progress, right there along the Galveston coast. But will it be enough to prevent loss of property and life? Or do we need an entirely different way of thinking? From Smithsonian magazine and PRX Productions, this is “There’s More to That,” the show that’s glad to be your nerdy listening alternative to the song of the summer. In this episode, we learn about the so-called Ike Dike going up in East Texas, as well as alternative flood prevention efforts that rely on nature itself. I’m Chris Klimek.Klimek: In the July/August issue of Smithsonian magazine, Xander Peters wrote about a place just a short drive from his hometown: the Bolivar Peninsula. Peters: It’s hard to imagine a more vulnerable geographic location than Bolivar Peninsula. It’s almost totally surrounded by water, so when a storm surge comes, it comes in nearly every direction. Klimek: What’s this region’s history with big storms? Peters: It’s hard to talk about southeast Texas without talking about its storms. It’s defined not just every generation, but every decade. Going back to the Galveston Storm of 1900, which claimed the most fatalities of any American natural disaster. We had Harvey in 2017, which was catastrophic flooding. The list goes on. At this point, I have mixed up the more recent names. I feel like, you know, your grandmother kind of does a roll call of all the children in the family. That’s how I feel about hurricanes now. Klimek: The biggest storm in Xander’s recent memory was 2008’s Hurricane Ike. Peters: We’d never seen the kind of storm surge result from a hurricane as we saw from Ike. And after that storm, it actually changed the way the National Hurricane Center conducts analysis and gives insight ahead of event into a storm surge. And, really, our broader understanding of what creates the disaster aspect of this kind of natural disaster. Klimek: Was it forecasted to be as catastrophic as it was? Peters: We knew it was going to be bad. It was a mandatory evacuation for, I think, even up to my region in East Texas, about 100 miles north of the coast. So we knew it was going to be bad. We at first thought it was going to be a direct hit to the Houston shipping channel, which is all kinds of bad news. We’re looking at $900 billion of goods that go up and down, much of which is oil and gas related, up and down the Houston shipping channel every year. We have the world’s largest petrochemical corridor. And if it’s a fuel, if it’s a gas, it’s being refined there. It’s being made there somehow. And then it’s going to faraway places like Europe. But we got lucky. It missed the shipping channel by about two miles, and it hit around Galveston and Bolivar instead. So Bolivar was not so lucky. But in terms of the larger human toll, very lucky. Because if a storm surge hits the Houston shipping channel directly, we could be looking at a Chernobyl-like event, just given some of the refining capacity across the region. Klimek: What did it look like there on the peninsula after Ike? Peters: There was nothing left. Sixty to 80 percent of the structures were gone. You look at Highway 87, which stretches down pretty much the entire span of the peninsula, and [it was covered in] one or two feet of sediment and mud. There were cattle carcasses, alligator carcasses. There were snakes and rats running wild, confused. There were laundry machines scattered everywhere. There was twisted metal, broken telephone poles, everything in a million huge piles. Klimek: In your story, you mentioned a smell that was very particular. Peters: Yeah. Death lingered for months. I mentioned the cattle carcasses, and there are human carcasses in some places. And all the grasses and the stuff in people’s houses was molding and rotting, and there’s just every foul smell you can imagine. I’m not a military veteran. I’ve never fought in a war. But I can imagine that’s what a battlefield would smell like, you know? Klimek: For more than 100 years, people in the area have been trying to prevent storm surges like this one. Peters: After the Galveston Storm in 1900, they built a kind of state-of-the-art seawall, which has been raised a couple times, if I’m not mistaken, over the last century or so. It was commissioned only a few years after the storm. Meanwhile, you look at Bolivar Peninsula, it has none of those same infrastructure protections. Klimek: So how did the idea of the Ike Dike come together? Peters: A lot of arguing. Klimek: The Ike Dike is the informal name for the massive infrastructure project that officials are betting the future of the Bolivar Peninsula on. Officially called the coastal Texas project, it involves three dozen sea gates leading up to the Houston shipping channel, and large concrete floodwalls to reinforce the city of Galveston. With a $34 billion price tag, it’s being overseen by the Army Corps of Engineers, but it was first envisioned by a local researcher. Peters: Dr. William Merrell. He’s a professor at Texas A&M Galveston, and he’s a marine scientist. He and his wife are also investors in some of the antique architecture across Galveston. As Ike blew in, he came up with a concept that was a barrier system around Galveston that would open and close ahead of events such as Ike. He sat down that evening, as the lights remained out, and started sketching out some of the first designs of what the federal government will break ground on in the coming months—after some 16 years. Klimek: Part of the delay came from the controversial nature of the project. Critics argued the Ike Dike would do irreparable damage to the environment, that it was too complex to work and that it was too expensive. Several different groups submitted their own plans. But after local officials asked Congress to step in, the Army Corps of Engineers was put in charge. Federal help comes with federal money. Klimek (to Peters): Who’s funding this, and what kind of money are we talking about? Peters: Sixty-five percent is coming from the federal government. Texas will pick up the remaining 35 percent. Only about $500,000 of that’s been allocated so far. But the Army Corps says accounting for inflation and everything else that threw it off the end of the project, we’re probably looking at something close to $55 billion. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s higher than that. Klimek: All right. So, assuming all this investment buys what we hope it does, how is the dike intended to protect Galveston from storm surges? How will it work? Peters: The whole idea is to stop the water at the sea, not let the water get into the Houston Ship Channel, which causes flooding all the way across it. So essentially, it’s a big gate that, in theory, will stop this huge wall of water as it surges toward the coast ahead of hurricane events like Ike and other ones. It draws on a Dutch flood theory, and the Dutch have some of the earliest forms of flood mitigation systems. Nothing like this has ever been even attempted in the U.S. Not at this scale, not with these high of stakes. It’s a new defining of how not just the federal government, but state governments as well, are going to approach building our way out of the climate crisis. Klimek: How will the gate-and-ring system work? Peters: Twenty-four to 48 hours ahead of a storm surge event, the alerts start going out, and they start moving some of the first ships out of the Houston Ship Channel. And, essentially, they have to hit that button to close the two main gates at the right time so that not too much water gets past it as the storm surge begins coming in in the 12 or 18 hours ahead of a hurricane. When I think of the Ike Dike gates closing, I think of, like, Indiana Jones when the stone rolls out of the cave after him, in terms of what these massive walls will look like moving toward each other. Klimek: How will the Ike Dike incorporate natural storm barriers like sand dunes? Peters: There along Bolivar Peninsula, we’re going to see a massive dune system. I think it was 12- to 14-foot dunes with a swale between them. That is going to line the stretch between Highway 87 and the beachfront. And that’s just piling sediment and sand on top of each other to create a wall. That’s nothing different than what the tides have done themselves, except to a much, much, much larger degree. And then in other places, we’re going to see wetlands restoration, which helps buffer storm surge from the coast. I think it was 6,600 acres of wetlands restoration or remediation for similar marshlands. So it’s equally significant — the natural restoration process — as much as the engineering phase of the project. Klimek: What kind of concerns have environmentalists raised about the coastal Texas project? Peters: Rightful ones, actually. It’s to be expected when you essentially inject these enormous concrete structures into ecosystems. Over the last 50 years in the Netherlands, environmental researchers have noticed changes to ecosystems, sediment patterns being shifted around. And that’s the same concern that we’re seeing on the Texas coast. These are unprecedented actions. A lot of this project is operating on hypothesis and theory. We probably can expect to see some ecological changes along the Texas coast as a result of it long term. Klimek: So how does what they’re trying to do in Galveston reflect how we’re responding nationally to increasingly severe storms and floods? Peters: I guess we’re paying attention now. It took a long time to get to this point. We’re approaching the 16-year anniversary of Ike, and you look at the Houston Ship Channel. You look at Bolivar and the months after Ike. It’s a pretty convincing argument. And over the years, we’ve seen the same argument made over and over. It’s very slow-moving, and I feel it’s very difficult to respond to a fast-moving crisis with a slow-moving solution, but it seems to be the best we have.Klimek: For more context on floods and their potential solutions, we reached out to an expert. Eric Sanderson: Hi everyone, I’m Dr. Eric Sanderson. I’m the vice president for urban conservation at the New York Botanical Garden. I live and work in New York City, and I’ve studied the historical ecology of New York for many years. Klimek: Eric recently spoke about flooding on New York Botanical Garden’s new podcast, “Plant People.” And while New York City may be far from Houston, it faces many of the same challenges. Sanderson: I was here during Hurricane Sandy, and I was here during Hurricane Ida. And after Sandy, I made this map that showed that the areas that flooded during Sandy were more or less where the tidal marshes were around the city. And I showed that around. And at the time, a lot of people are like, oh, well, that’s kind of interesting. But I guess that makes sense. Those would be the lowest places, right? But then Hurricane Ida happened in 2021, and Hurricane Ida was not a coastal storm, but an intense rainstorm. And what re-emerged were the upland streams and wetlands and ponds and places that people weren’t expecting. I made a map there, kind of compared that, and I started talking about it, and I wrote a little thing that was in the New York Times that just made the case that the water is going to go where the water is going to go, and that’s going to be downhill, and that’s going to be where the old streams were. Klimek: Eric does a lot of work with historic maps. He overlays the original topography of a place with the city we know now to reveal where the rivers, lakes, streams and marshes used to be. Often these are the very same places that flood during storms. Sanderson: We call those areas “blue zones,” and they cover some 20 percent of New York City. Places where about a million people live. Klimek: So you’re saying that some of the flooding resulting from Hurricane Ida happened in surprising places, places that were not predicted to flood? Sanderson: Yes. Basements were flooded. And it turns out that a lot of those places were former wetlands or ponds or streams. Because when we build, the city will fill in the wetland. But it’s actually hard to raise the topography high enough that you divert the direction of the water. The water goes where the water has always gone. Klimek: Eric says some of the best examples can be found in our nation’s airports. Sanderson: Think about where JFK Airport is, or LaGuardia Airport, in New York. JFK Airport is built on a big salt marsh. The Great Haystack, as it was called. LaGuardia is actually built in Bowery Bay. It was built in a bay! They filled in the bay, and they built the airport. And why is that? Why did they do that? It’s because by the time we decided we wanted commercial aviation in the late ’20s and 1930s, most of the upland had been built on, right? And so, you know, you weren’t going to, like, clear Flatbush in order to build an airport. What the city did is they took whatever they had, which was the near-coastal zone, and they filled it in. That’s what LaGuardia [is]. And that’s what we did for JFK, and that’s Newark Airport. But that’s also, you know, Reagan Airport in D.C., and that’s also SFO in San Francisco and the Oakland Airport and practically every airport in a coastal city. And it’s because of the relationship of when that technological economic activity developed in the historical projection of the city. It’s fascinating. Klimek: Are there specific human populations most likely to be affected by floods? Sanderson: Yeah. Well, everybody who’s in a low spot. It turns out, of course, that those places have been wet for a long time. Many of them were less desirable. And there’s two consequences of that: One is that they’re disproportionately in public hands, still. So there are places where schools are, where public housing is, where parks are. Because those places were less desirable for private development in the past. And so they tended to stay in the public sphere. The other sort of important factor is poor people. You know, people with less power and less financial capacity tend to go to the places that are more affordable and in some sense have been, you know, shunted by the various systematic mechanisms. You know, redlining and these sorts of things tend to push people into certain precincts of the city. It just turns out that some of those precincts of the city were formerly wetlands, and then those former wetlands are starting to flood again. We did an analysis of our blue zones against environmental justice areas of the city. And about a third of the blue zones overlap with areas that are identified as environmental justice communities. Klimek: Our magazine story about flooding is largely set in Houston, which, you know, in recent days as we’re speaking has been hit by Hurricane Beryl-related flooding. But this obviously has been a problem there for decades, considering that Houston, too, was built on a swamp. Why are so many of our major U.S. cities built on floodplains? Sanderson: They weren’t built to destroy swamps, per se. It’s more, if you think about where it’s a good place to put a city, there’s sort of four factors. One is that there is food. So you have to have agricultural land nearby, and you need water. You need fresh water, right? You also want to be on a trade route. So that means cities like to be on the coast, or on major rivers, or some way of moving stuff around. And the fourth one is defense. A lot of cities were founded at a time where, you know, you had to worry about other people. So they’re often in defensive places. It’s maybe worth saying, Chris, that once a city is established, the next best place to put a city is right beside the city you already have. Once you have that core, then they tend to grow out sort of radially from them. Klimek: So in Houston, the so-called Ike Dike, this massive infrastructure project—I want to ask how you feel about these kinds of large-scale solutions. Is there a limit to what can be achieved with these kinds of massive infrastructure projects? Sanderson: I can’t speak specifically to the details of Houston, but there’s similar sorts of things proposed here in New York. And what I would just say is, I don’t think you can solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created it in the first place. There was this idea that developed during the Enlightenment, and was expressed through the Industrial Age and into the 20th century, that we could basically control nature. That we were smarter and more powerful than nature is. And the consequences of that are that we have radically changed the atmospheric composition of the Earth in such a way that it’s holding in more energy and creating these storms. So there’s that. And then, you know, we thought, “We can build on a beach, we can build on a wetland. We’ll just fill it in; it’ll be fine.” But we didn’t anticipate sea-level rise and climate change and more severe storms. And so I really think this is a moment where we need a different way of thinking and another kind of wisdom. Klimek: What would a more comprehensive long-term solution for a coastal city, whether it’s Houston or New York, what would that look like if we had some way to address all of this pre-existing construction, and the fact that we’re having to interpolate centuries of prior development? If we could somehow put that aside and just think about the future, what would you do? Sanderson: So I would take the historical lesson, which is that we’ve overbuilt in some places, we built in places that we shouldn’t have. And so, what should we do? I think there are some places where we need to invest in nature instead of more infrastructure. I think it’s actually the reverse thing. Don’t build a giant wall; build a giant park. Don’t build a new storm drain; build a stream. Don’t build another massive retention pond that you don’t know how big to make it; build a wetland that knows how to adapt to changing conditions. And that’s hard, because it means that it just isn’t a problem of the neighborhoods that are flooding. It’s also a problem of the upland areas that aren’t flooding. If a million people need to move, and we need to build another million housing units in safer places—and probably more to help with the housing affordability and other things, right? This is what I mean. It challenges us at many levels. It challenges us in terms of the wisdom to know what to do as an individual person or individual family, but it also challenges our social structures. We need to have a mechanism to try and work that out, and then we need to restore the nature that we destroyed, and that will save us. Klimek: Do plants have a role to play in addressing some of the problems we’re having with flooding? Sanderson: Planting really is the key here. And that’s what I mean by restoring nature from a water perspective. When you see a tree, you should think of a straw. You have this organism that has these roots that are going down into the ground, and they’re pulling the water out and they’re putting it back in the atmosphere. The traditional way of managing water in the city is to build pipes and infrastructures that replace the streams, right? And then take it to the water treatment plants. That’s sort of this one way of managing water. And the goal is to get rid of it as fast as possible. Nature’s way is: There’s many routes that water can take. Water can run down a stream, but it can also percolate into the ground and into the aquifer. Or it can evaporate or evapotranspiration through trees and up into the atmosphere, right? It has multiple pathways to go. So these are all sorts of lessons out of ecology that we can apply with plants to make flooding better. More trees is going to help with interception. It’s going to help with groundwater flows, and it’s going to help with evapotranspiration. More wetland plants is going to help with slowing the water, holding the water and providing habitat for other organisms that use that water. Nature’s been at this for a long time. Like, it really has a lot of great tricks that we can lean into in a way that can make our lives better, too. Klimek: Eric spoke about another innovative solution called “stream daylighting.” Most of the small streams that used to exist in the landscape have been forced underground, rerouted into pipes or otherwise covered by our urban infrastructure. Daylighting restores the streams, bringing them back up to the surface. Sanderson: Here in New York City, there’s this fascinating story on Staten Island that when Staten Island was developing, there was this moment where they were about to spend a lot of money on their sewage infrastructure. And then someone said, well, why don’t we put some of that money into just restoring the streams? And then the streams can help with the stormwater. We can do some adaptations. We can build some ponds and things to help hold a little bit more water in the system. And then the sewage system can just deal with the sewage and not have to deal with the stormwater. But then there’s other things that are being invented, like a green roof. You know, a green roof actually slows the water down. And it used to be that our green roofs, you know, were pretty shallow. But there’s been a lot of experimentation. I was slightly involved with a project that Google built in New York, where they took an old industrial building that was strong enough that they used to drive trains into this building, like locomotives, at the end of the High Line. It’s now an office building, and they popped up the middle of it to create the office structures, and then they put green roofs on them, and those green roofs could hold enough weight that they can have trees on them. Trees and shrubs and plants. And then they planted them with 95 percent native plants. So they’re doing the water thing and they’re doing the biodiversity thing at the same time. It’s a really beautiful project, and an acre and a half of habitat on the West Side of Manhattan. Incredible. Klimek: The solutions to flooding as a result of coastal surges—are those different from rainfall-induced flooding, or do we address them in the same way? Sanderson: We have to address them in different kinds of ways, because the coastal storm surge, that’s the sea level. And then the waves that are being driven by a storm. And so that’s really about, in my view, dunes and beaches and maybe oyster reefs to help break that energy of the storm water and then salt marshes to help absorb it. If it’s an intense rainfall, I think that’s about streams and wetlands and interior modifications giving the water someplace to go. The problem is that you could try and solve one and mess up the other. I think this is why the engineers are so interested in this problem, and they can design something if you tell them what to design for. It’s easy to do the design, but then to miss the specification by a little bit. Remember during Hurricane Sandy when there was that famous photograph of Lower Manhattan being all dark? That’s because the flood took out a power plant that was on the East Side of Manhattan. There was on a little hill beside an old salt marsh. It was designed to be 12 feet above the tide, and that storm surge was 14 feet. So it was just two feet over. You know, like, if they designed it at 14 or 16 feet or would have been OK. When they built that thing, nobody knew exactly what it was. You’re taking a guess. You’re sort of rolling the dice. Natural systems are adaptive on their own. So it’s not like there’s a design blueprint for nature that says, this is exactly what it’ll do. Nature’s a little bit more adaptable, and it can do kind of different sorts of things. And I think that’s a strength in the long run. But it makes people uncertain in the short run. Klimek: Are there any other solutions we haven’t gotten to yet, either in New York City or other cities, approaches to addressing flooding that you find worthy of exploration? Sanderson: We didn’t mention specifically things like bioswales, which are sort of like a small little version of a forest or a little wetland on the side of a street. There’s this idea of permeable pavers, you know, allowing water to get to the ground. Essentially, we’ve covered our cities in stone because we don’t like mud. Essentially, we’ve paved over the city, and our buildings are built in these hard materials, which are like stone and glass and so forth. And so that’s why the water sheets off of it. And, you know, anybody can do this experiment. You just take a bucket of water and go outside and pour it on a rock and watch how fast the water comes off. And then you pour it on the adjacent soil and you’ll see how fast it infiltrates to the ground and doesn’t run off. And so we’ve hardened the city. Anything we can do to soften the city that way, to expose the soil, it’s going to help us with water. I think the only thing to say about that, of course, is that, you know, in the historical conditions, when it was a forest, the water that was in the ground would either eventually emerge in a spring and a stream or go down into the aquifer and then out into the ocean. Now we have other stuff that’s also on the ground, like the subway system and like all the electrical wires, and all the plumbing. So it’s a little bit more complicated. There’s a lot of work in cities to put water in the ground, and I totally understand why. But if you’re ever in New York City on a rainy day, it’s raining above the ground and it’s raining below the ground, in the subway system. Water is single-minded like this. It just wants to go downhill. Klimek: It sounds like we really need to think about more than just rerouting water to solve some of these problems that coastal cities are experiencing. What are the opportunities that we could open up by thinking about more than just moving excess water from one place to another place? Sanderson: Well, I think we need to think about the mitigation side. Of course, everything we’ve talked about adapting to flooding doesn’t mean we don’t have to do something about trying to decrease the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere. Floods are a big problem in cities, both because of the way we’ve made our cities and because of the way cities have changed the atmosphere. I mean, there’s the basic climate change fact that the atmosphere has a lot more carbon dioxide in it and other greenhouse gases than it did before. Those holding the heat, the warmer air holds more water and has more energy. And so that creates larger storms. So there’s that. One thing I think a lot about is we tend to forget that we make a lot of choices about how we live in the city. So there’s a sort of lifestyle aspect to this, as well as a sort of urban planning aspect to it, if you like. And I think we could do a lot more on the lifestyle side. Some of that is just coming to this expectation that, yes, there’s going to be flooding in our cities and another ecosystems, right? These things are not going away anytime soon. So we just need to, like, reset, maybe, our expectation that we can build pipes large enough to handle all the water and that, you know, despite whatever the conditions are, if it’s pouring rain, maybe you can’t go outside, or maybe you can’t do something that you were able to do before. So that’s one thing. A second one is to sort of think about those sort of lifestyle choices in terms of all the things you need to do about them. Flooding, about where the water goes, that’s in conversation with where the cars go and where people go. So the transportation networks. There’s some clever ideas there. If you look at the New York City streets now, they’re designed with this bend, so they’re higher in the middle so that the water sheets off toward the gutters on the side. But there’s been some experiments in cities around the world to build them the other way, lower in the middle, and the water comes in. And so basically when there’s a flood, you close the road. And for the short period of time, that road is a stream. Not traffic. It’s a stream. And it turns out that some of our roads are on old streams. And so that kind of solution could work. So these are quite clever things that you can do. Klimek: How would it benefit people to take that into account, to start to think more ecologically and adjust our expectations? How would we ultimately benefit from this? Sanderson: Well, in the near term, we won’t die, right? Like we won’t drown, and we won’t lose our stuff, and we won’t have the social unrest that arises from those bad things. But to sort of turn around in a positive mode at some level, I think this is what life is for, right? Knowing how to live here on Earth with the nature that we have. It’s that kind of deep-seated understanding and desire to be the best person I can be in this amazing, amazing planet that we have that has led my whole career in conservation. Klimek: Eric Sanderson is the vice president of urban conservation for the New York Botanical Garden. He is also the author of Mannahatta: A Natural History of New York City, which is an ecological history of Manhattan Island. Thank you, Dr. Sanderson, for talking with us. Sanderson: Terrific. Thank you so much, Chris. Klimek: To hear more from Eric Sanderson, subscribe to NYBG’s brand new podcast, which is called “Plant People.” We’ll put a link in our show notes along with links to more resources, including Xander Peters’ Smithsonian article about the Ike Dike.Klimek: Before we let you go, let’s give you one last dinner party fact to tide you over as we wrap up our season. Ted Scheinman: I’m Ted Scheinman. I’m a senior editor here at Smithsonian magazine, and I recently edited a great piece by our frequent contributor Richard Grant about Akito Kawahara, who is a butterfly scientist at the University of Florida. And Kawahara’s recent research has changed our understanding of butterflies in major ways. He has traced the evolution of butterflies directly from moths. Butterflies became butterflies when they became day-flying, essentially. But a really curious and, to me, sort of funny wrinkle here is that some of those butterflies who escaped the night and became day-flying, then evolved back into being night fliers and into essentially being moths again, which I can’t help but consider a sort of step backward, like moving back in with your parents or something. But it goes to show you that, you know, evolution is not, you know, directional. And it always brings up some crazy stuff.Klimek: I hope you liked this season of “There’s More of That.” We did something new for us, and we hope that our episodes gave you a sense of what the world of Smithsonian magazine is all about. We’d love to hear from you about how the season was and, more importantly, what you want to hear more of. We’re taking time between seasons to make the show even better. Having your help is key. So if you have the time to help us design our future episodes, please take this survey. You can find it at SmithsonianMag.com/podcastsurvey. It should take about five minutes. “There’s More to That” is a production of Smithsonian magazine and PRX Productions. From the magazine. Our team is me, Debra Rosenberg and Brian Wolly. From PRX, our team is Jessica Miller, Genevieve Sponsler, Adriana Rozas Rivera, Ry Dorsey and Edwin Ochoa. The executive producer of PRX Productions is Jocelyn Gonzales. Our episode artwork is by Emily Lankiewicz. Fact-checking by Stephanie Abramson. Our music is from APM Music. I’m Chris Klimek. Thank you for listening. Get the latest Science stories in your inbox.

A massive project prompted by the wildly destructive Hurricane Ike offers a solutions-based preview of our climate future

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Illustration by Emily Lankiewicz / Images via public domain / Library of Congress / FEMA / NASA / Carl & Ann Purcell / Getty Images

After Hurricane Ike destroyed thousands of homes and inflicted an estimated $30 billion in damages in 2008, engineers hatched an ambitious plan to protect southeast Texas and its coastal refineries and shipping routes from violent storms. The $34 billion collaboration spearheaded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is a harbinger of the type of massive public works projects that could be required to protect coastal cities like New York and Miami as sea levels rise and hurricanes become less predictable and more severe due to climate change.

In this episode of “There’s More to That,” Smithsonian magazine contributor and Texas native Xander Peters reflects on his experiences growing up in a hurricane corridor and tells us how the wildly ambitious effort came together. Then, Eric Sanderson, an ecological historian, tells us how the project could be applied to other low-lying coastal cities.

A transcript is below. To subscribe to “There’s More to That,” and to listen to past episodes on how a new generation of high-end West African restaurants is revealing the roots of “Southern” cuisine, why Colombian conservationists are now trying to sterilize the hippos descended from drug kingpin Pablo Escobar’s personal menagerie, what humans’ great acumen for sweating has contributed to our evolution and more, find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


Chris Klimek: What part of Texas are you from?

Xander Peters: I’m over here in East Texas. We’re about 30 miles from the Louisiana border.

Klimek: Xander Peters is a contributor to Smithsonian magazine.

Peters: It’s a real small town, about 2,000 people.

Klimek: What’s life like there?

Peters: As a 33-year-old single guy? Kind of boring at times, but it’s home, you know. Not a lot of people move here, but not a lot of people leave, either. So maybe that speaks for itself.

Klimek: What’s the geography like?

Peters: It’s marshy. It’s wet. We’re kind of the last stretch of the Louisiana swamp, as we all know it. So it’s a wet, humid, difficult place at times.

Klimek: One of the constants in Xander’s life growing up in East Texas was hurricanes.

Peters: The most memorable was in 2005. Hurricane Rita pretty much was a direct impact to the region. I think it was my freshman year of high school. The power was out for three or four weeks. Society literally shut down. It was hard to get gas. You couldn’t really get groceries. Of course, there was Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the list goes on. But it’s a fact of life here.

Klimek: This area has already been impacted by hurricanes this summer, and there may be more to come. In July, Hurricane Beryl left millions without power in the dangerously high heat, leading to more than 20 deaths. Local officials can’t prevent these big storms, but they can try to prevent the damage, which is why one of the most ambitious and expensive infrastructure projects in the country is in progress, right there along the Galveston coast. But will it be enough to prevent loss of property and life? Or do we need an entirely different way of thinking?

From Smithsonian magazine and PRX Productions, this is “There’s More to That,” the show that’s glad to be your nerdy listening alternative to the song of the summer. In this episode, we learn about the so-called Ike Dike going up in East Texas, as well as alternative flood prevention efforts that rely on nature itself. I’m Chris Klimek.


Klimek: In the July/August issue of Smithsonian magazine, Xander Peters wrote about a place just a short drive from his hometown: the Bolivar Peninsula.

Peters: It’s hard to imagine a more vulnerable geographic location than Bolivar Peninsula. It’s almost totally surrounded by water, so when a storm surge comes, it comes in nearly every direction.

Klimek: What’s this region’s history with big storms?

Peters: It’s hard to talk about southeast Texas without talking about its storms. It’s defined not just every generation, but every decade. Going back to the Galveston Storm of 1900, which claimed the most fatalities of any American natural disaster. We had Harvey in 2017, which was catastrophic flooding. The list goes on. At this point, I have mixed up the more recent names. I feel like, you know, your grandmother kind of does a roll call of all the children in the family. That’s how I feel about hurricanes now.

Klimek: The biggest storm in Xander’s recent memory was 2008’s Hurricane Ike.

Peters: We’d never seen the kind of storm surge result from a hurricane as we saw from Ike. And after that storm, it actually changed the way the National Hurricane Center conducts analysis and gives insight ahead of event into a storm surge. And, really, our broader understanding of what creates the disaster aspect of this kind of natural disaster.

Klimek: Was it forecasted to be as catastrophic as it was?

Peters: We knew it was going to be bad. It was a mandatory evacuation for, I think, even up to my region in East Texas, about 100 miles north of the coast. So we knew it was going to be bad. We at first thought it was going to be a direct hit to the Houston shipping channel, which is all kinds of bad news. We’re looking at $900 billion of goods that go up and down, much of which is oil and gas related, up and down the Houston shipping channel every year. We have the world’s largest petrochemical corridor. And if it’s a fuel, if it’s a gas, it’s being refined there. It’s being made there somehow. And then it’s going to faraway places like Europe.

But we got lucky. It missed the shipping channel by about two miles, and it hit around Galveston and Bolivar instead. So Bolivar was not so lucky. But in terms of the larger human toll, very lucky. Because if a storm surge hits the Houston shipping channel directly, we could be looking at a Chernobyl-like event, just given some of the refining capacity across the region.

Klimek: What did it look like there on the peninsula after Ike?

Peters: There was nothing left. Sixty to 80 percent of the structures were gone. You look at Highway 87, which stretches down pretty much the entire span of the peninsula, and [it was covered in] one or two feet of sediment and mud. There were cattle carcasses, alligator carcasses. There were snakes and rats running wild, confused. There were laundry machines scattered everywhere. There was twisted metal, broken telephone poles, everything in a million huge piles.

Klimek: In your story, you mentioned a smell that was very particular.

Peters: Yeah. Death lingered for months. I mentioned the cattle carcasses, and there are human carcasses in some places. And all the grasses and the stuff in people’s houses was molding and rotting, and there’s just every foul smell you can imagine. I’m not a military veteran. I’ve never fought in a war. But I can imagine that’s what a battlefield would smell like, you know?

Klimek: For more than 100 years, people in the area have been trying to prevent storm surges like this one.

Peters: After the Galveston Storm in 1900, they built a kind of state-of-the-art seawall, which has been raised a couple times, if I’m not mistaken, over the last century or so. It was commissioned only a few years after the storm. Meanwhile, you look at Bolivar Peninsula, it has none of those same infrastructure protections.

Klimek: So how did the idea of the Ike Dike come together?

Peters: A lot of arguing.

Klimek: The Ike Dike is the informal name for the massive infrastructure project that officials are betting the future of the Bolivar Peninsula on. Officially called the coastal Texas project, it involves three dozen sea gates leading up to the Houston shipping channel, and large concrete floodwalls to reinforce the city of Galveston. With a $34 billion price tag, it’s being overseen by the Army Corps of Engineers, but it was first envisioned by a local researcher.

Peters: Dr. William Merrell. He’s a professor at Texas A&M Galveston, and he’s a marine scientist. He and his wife are also investors in some of the antique architecture across Galveston. As Ike blew in, he came up with a concept that was a barrier system around Galveston that would open and close ahead of events such as Ike. He sat down that evening, as the lights remained out, and started sketching out some of the first designs of what the federal government will break ground on in the coming months—after some 16 years.

Klimek: Part of the delay came from the controversial nature of the project. Critics argued the Ike Dike would do irreparable damage to the environment, that it was too complex to work and that it was too expensive. Several different groups submitted their own plans. But after local officials asked Congress to step in, the Army Corps of Engineers was put in charge. Federal help comes with federal money.

Klimek (to Peters): Who’s funding this, and what kind of money are we talking about?

Peters: Sixty-five percent is coming from the federal government. Texas will pick up the remaining 35 percent. Only about $500,000 of that’s been allocated so far. But the Army Corps says accounting for inflation and everything else that threw it off the end of the project, we’re probably looking at something close to $55 billion. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s higher than that.

Klimek: All right. So, assuming all this investment buys what we hope it does, how is the dike intended to protect Galveston from storm surges? How will it work?

Peters: The whole idea is to stop the water at the sea, not let the water get into the Houston Ship Channel, which causes flooding all the way across it. So essentially, it’s a big gate that, in theory, will stop this huge wall of water as it surges toward the coast ahead of hurricane events like Ike and other ones. It draws on a Dutch flood theory, and the Dutch have some of the earliest forms of flood mitigation systems. Nothing like this has ever been even attempted in the U.S. Not at this scale, not with these high of stakes. It’s a new defining of how not just the federal government, but state governments as well, are going to approach building our way out of the climate crisis.

Klimek: How will the gate-and-ring system work?

Peters: Twenty-four to 48 hours ahead of a storm surge event, the alerts start going out, and they start moving some of the first ships out of the Houston Ship Channel. And, essentially, they have to hit that button to close the two main gates at the right time so that not too much water gets past it as the storm surge begins coming in in the 12 or 18 hours ahead of a hurricane. When I think of the Ike Dike gates closing, I think of, like, Indiana Jones when the stone rolls out of the cave after him, in terms of what these massive walls will look like moving toward each other.

Klimek: How will the Ike Dike incorporate natural storm barriers like sand dunes?

Peters: There along Bolivar Peninsula, we’re going to see a massive dune system. I think it was 12- to 14-foot dunes with a swale between them. That is going to line the stretch between Highway 87 and the beachfront. And that’s just piling sediment and sand on top of each other to create a wall. That’s nothing different than what the tides have done themselves, except to a much, much, much larger degree. And then in other places, we’re going to see wetlands restoration, which helps buffer storm surge from the coast. I think it was 6,600 acres of wetlands restoration or remediation for similar marshlands. So it’s equally significant — the natural restoration process — as much as the engineering phase of the project.

Klimek: What kind of concerns have environmentalists raised about the coastal Texas project?

Peters: Rightful ones, actually. It’s to be expected when you essentially inject these enormous concrete structures into ecosystems. Over the last 50 years in the Netherlands, environmental researchers have noticed changes to ecosystems, sediment patterns being shifted around. And that’s the same concern that we’re seeing on the Texas coast. These are unprecedented actions. A lot of this project is operating on hypothesis and theory. We probably can expect to see some ecological changes along the Texas coast as a result of it long term.

Klimek: So how does what they’re trying to do in Galveston reflect how we’re responding nationally to increasingly severe storms and floods?

Peters: I guess we’re paying attention now. It took a long time to get to this point. We’re approaching the 16-year anniversary of Ike, and you look at the Houston Ship Channel. You look at Bolivar and the months after Ike. It’s a pretty convincing argument. And over the years, we’ve seen the same argument made over and over. It’s very slow-moving, and I feel it’s very difficult to respond to a fast-moving crisis with a slow-moving solution, but it seems to be the best we have.


Klimek: For more context on floods and their potential solutions, we reached out to an expert.

Eric Sanderson: Hi everyone, I’m Dr. Eric Sanderson. I’m the vice president for urban conservation at the New York Botanical Garden. I live and work in New York City, and I’ve studied the historical ecology of New York for many years.

Klimek: Eric recently spoke about flooding on New York Botanical Garden’s new podcast, “Plant People.” And while New York City may be far from Houston, it faces many of the same challenges.

Sanderson: I was here during Hurricane Sandy, and I was here during Hurricane Ida. And after Sandy, I made this map that showed that the areas that flooded during Sandy were more or less where the tidal marshes were around the city. And I showed that around. And at the time, a lot of people are like, oh, well, that’s kind of interesting. But I guess that makes sense. Those would be the lowest places, right? But then Hurricane Ida happened in 2021, and Hurricane Ida was not a coastal storm, but an intense rainstorm. And what re-emerged were the upland streams and wetlands and ponds and places that people weren’t expecting. I made a map there, kind of compared that, and I started talking about it, and I wrote a little thing that was in the New York Times that just made the case that the water is going to go where the water is going to go, and that’s going to be downhill, and that’s going to be where the old streams were.

Klimek: Eric does a lot of work with historic maps. He overlays the original topography of a place with the city we know now to reveal where the rivers, lakes, streams and marshes used to be. Often these are the very same places that flood during storms.

Sanderson: We call those areas “blue zones,” and they cover some 20 percent of New York City. Places where about a million people live.

Klimek: So you’re saying that some of the flooding resulting from Hurricane Ida happened in surprising places, places that were not predicted to flood?

Sanderson: Yes. Basements were flooded. And it turns out that a lot of those places were former wetlands or ponds or streams. Because when we build, the city will fill in the wetland. But it’s actually hard to raise the topography high enough that you divert the direction of the water. The water goes where the water has always gone.

Klimek: Eric says some of the best examples can be found in our nation’s airports.

Sanderson: Think about where JFK Airport is, or LaGuardia Airport, in New York. JFK Airport is built on a big salt marsh. The Great Haystack, as it was called. LaGuardia is actually built in Bowery Bay. It was built in a bay! They filled in the bay, and they built the airport. And why is that? Why did they do that? It’s because by the time we decided we wanted commercial aviation in the late ’20s and 1930s, most of the upland had been built on, right?

And so, you know, you weren’t going to, like, clear Flatbush in order to build an airport. What the city did is they took whatever they had, which was the near-coastal zone, and they filled it in. That’s what LaGuardia [is]. And that’s what we did for JFK, and that’s Newark Airport. But that’s also, you know, Reagan Airport in D.C., and that’s also SFO in San Francisco and the Oakland Airport and practically every airport in a coastal city. And it’s because of the relationship of when that technological economic activity developed in the historical projection of the city. It’s fascinating.

Klimek: Are there specific human populations most likely to be affected by floods?

Sanderson: Yeah. Well, everybody who’s in a low spot. It turns out, of course, that those places have been wet for a long time. Many of them were less desirable. And there’s two consequences of that: One is that they’re disproportionately in public hands, still. So there are places where schools are, where public housing is, where parks are. Because those places were less desirable for private development in the past. And so they tended to stay in the public sphere. The other sort of important factor is poor people. You know, people with less power and less financial capacity tend to go to the places that are more affordable and in some sense have been, you know, shunted by the various systematic mechanisms. You know, redlining and these sorts of things tend to push people into certain precincts of the city. It just turns out that some of those precincts of the city were formerly wetlands, and then those former wetlands are starting to flood again. We did an analysis of our blue zones against environmental justice areas of the city. And about a third of the blue zones overlap with areas that are identified as environmental justice communities.

Klimek: Our magazine story about flooding is largely set in Houston, which, you know, in recent days as we’re speaking has been hit by Hurricane Beryl-related flooding. But this obviously has been a problem there for decades, considering that Houston, too, was built on a swamp. Why are so many of our major U.S. cities built on floodplains?

Sanderson: They weren’t built to destroy swamps, per se. It’s more, if you think about where it’s a good place to put a city, there’s sort of four factors. One is that there is food. So you have to have agricultural land nearby, and you need water. You need fresh water, right? You also want to be on a trade route. So that means cities like to be on the coast, or on major rivers, or some way of moving stuff around. And the fourth one is defense. A lot of cities were founded at a time where, you know, you had to worry about other people. So they’re often in defensive places. It’s maybe worth saying, Chris, that once a city is established, the next best place to put a city is right beside the city you already have. Once you have that core, then they tend to grow out sort of radially from them.

Klimek: So in Houston, the so-called Ike Dike, this massive infrastructure project—I want to ask how you feel about these kinds of large-scale solutions. Is there a limit to what can be achieved with these kinds of massive infrastructure projects?

Sanderson: I can’t speak specifically to the details of Houston, but there’s similar sorts of things proposed here in New York. And what I would just say is, I don’t think you can solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created it in the first place.

There was this idea that developed during the Enlightenment, and was expressed through the Industrial Age and into the 20th century, that we could basically control nature. That we were smarter and more powerful than nature is. And the consequences of that are that we have radically changed the atmospheric composition of the Earth in such a way that it’s holding in more energy and creating these storms. So there’s that. And then, you know, we thought, “We can build on a beach, we can build on a wetland. We’ll just fill it in; it’ll be fine.” But we didn’t anticipate sea-level rise and climate change and more severe storms. And so I really think this is a moment where we need a different way of thinking and another kind of wisdom.

Klimek: What would a more comprehensive long-term solution for a coastal city, whether it’s Houston or New York, what would that look like if we had some way to address all of this pre-existing construction, and the fact that we’re having to interpolate centuries of prior development? If we could somehow put that aside and just think about the future, what would you do?

Sanderson: So I would take the historical lesson, which is that we’ve overbuilt in some places, we built in places that we shouldn’t have. And so, what should we do? I think there are some places where we need to invest in nature instead of more infrastructure. I think it’s actually the reverse thing. Don’t build a giant wall; build a giant park. Don’t build a new storm drain; build a stream. Don’t build another massive retention pond that you don’t know how big to make it; build a wetland that knows how to adapt to changing conditions.

And that’s hard, because it means that it just isn’t a problem of the neighborhoods that are flooding. It’s also a problem of the upland areas that aren’t flooding. If a million people need to move, and we need to build another million housing units in safer places—and probably more to help with the housing affordability and other things, right? This is what I mean. It challenges us at many levels. It challenges us in terms of the wisdom to know what to do as an individual person or individual family, but it also challenges our social structures. We need to have a mechanism to try and work that out, and then we need to restore the nature that we destroyed, and that will save us.

Klimek: Do plants have a role to play in addressing some of the problems we’re having with flooding?

Sanderson: Planting really is the key here. And that’s what I mean by restoring nature from a water perspective. When you see a tree, you should think of a straw. You have this organism that has these roots that are going down into the ground, and they’re pulling the water out and they’re putting it back in the atmosphere. The traditional way of managing water in the city is to build pipes and infrastructures that replace the streams, right? And then take it to the water treatment plants. That’s sort of this one way of managing water. And the goal is to get rid of it as fast as possible. Nature’s way is: There’s many routes that water can take. Water can run down a stream, but it can also percolate into the ground and into the aquifer. Or it can evaporate or evapotranspiration through trees and up into the atmosphere, right? It has multiple pathways to go.

So these are all sorts of lessons out of ecology that we can apply with plants to make flooding better. More trees is going to help with interception. It’s going to help with groundwater flows, and it’s going to help with evapotranspiration. More wetland plants is going to help with slowing the water, holding the water and providing habitat for other organisms that use that water. Nature’s been at this for a long time. Like, it really has a lot of great tricks that we can lean into in a way that can make our lives better, too.

Klimek: Eric spoke about another innovative solution called “stream daylighting.” Most of the small streams that used to exist in the landscape have been forced underground, rerouted into pipes or otherwise covered by our urban infrastructure. Daylighting restores the streams, bringing them back up to the surface.

Sanderson: Here in New York City, there’s this fascinating story on Staten Island that when Staten Island was developing, there was this moment where they were about to spend a lot of money on their sewage infrastructure. And then someone said, well, why don’t we put some of that money into just restoring the streams? And then the streams can help with the stormwater. We can do some adaptations. We can build some ponds and things to help hold a little bit more water in the system. And then the sewage system can just deal with the sewage and not have to deal with the stormwater.

But then there’s other things that are being invented, like a green roof. You know, a green roof actually slows the water down. And it used to be that our green roofs, you know, were pretty shallow. But there’s been a lot of experimentation. I was slightly involved with a project that Google built in New York, where they took an old industrial building that was strong enough that they used to drive trains into this building, like locomotives, at the end of the High Line. It’s now an office building, and they popped up the middle of it to create the office structures, and then they put green roofs on them, and those green roofs could hold enough weight that they can have trees on them. Trees and shrubs and plants. And then they planted them with 95 percent native plants. So they’re doing the water thing and they’re doing the biodiversity thing at the same time. It’s a really beautiful project, and an acre and a half of habitat on the West Side of Manhattan. Incredible.

Klimek: The solutions to flooding as a result of coastal surges—are those different from rainfall-induced flooding, or do we address them in the same way?

Sanderson: We have to address them in different kinds of ways, because the coastal storm surge, that’s the sea level. And then the waves that are being driven by a storm. And so that’s really about, in my view, dunes and beaches and maybe oyster reefs to help break that energy of the storm water and then salt marshes to help absorb it.

If it’s an intense rainfall, I think that’s about streams and wetlands and interior modifications giving the water someplace to go. The problem is that you could try and solve one and mess up the other. I think this is why the engineers are so interested in this problem, and they can design something if you tell them what to design for. It’s easy to do the design, but then to miss the specification by a little bit.

Remember during Hurricane Sandy when there was that famous photograph of Lower Manhattan being all dark? That’s because the flood took out a power plant that was on the East Side of Manhattan. There was on a little hill beside an old salt marsh. It was designed to be 12 feet above the tide, and that storm surge was 14 feet. So it was just two feet over. You know, like, if they designed it at 14 or 16 feet or would have been OK. When they built that thing, nobody knew exactly what it was. You’re taking a guess. You’re sort of rolling the dice. Natural systems are adaptive on their own.

So it’s not like there’s a design blueprint for nature that says, this is exactly what it’ll do. Nature’s a little bit more adaptable, and it can do kind of different sorts of things. And I think that’s a strength in the long run. But it makes people uncertain in the short run.

Klimek: Are there any other solutions we haven’t gotten to yet, either in New York City or other cities, approaches to addressing flooding that you find worthy of exploration?

Sanderson: We didn’t mention specifically things like bioswales, which are sort of like a small little version of a forest or a little wetland on the side of a street. There’s this idea of permeable pavers, you know, allowing water to get to the ground. Essentially, we’ve covered our cities in stone because we don’t like mud. Essentially, we’ve paved over the city, and our buildings are built in these hard materials, which are like stone and glass and so forth. And so that’s why the water sheets off of it.

And, you know, anybody can do this experiment. You just take a bucket of water and go outside and pour it on a rock and watch how fast the water comes off. And then you pour it on the adjacent soil and you’ll see how fast it infiltrates to the ground and doesn’t run off. And so we’ve hardened the city. Anything we can do to soften the city that way, to expose the soil, it’s going to help us with water. I think the only thing to say about that, of course, is that, you know, in the historical conditions, when it was a forest, the water that was in the ground would either eventually emerge in a spring and a stream or go down into the aquifer and then out into the ocean.

Now we have other stuff that’s also on the ground, like the subway system and like all the electrical wires, and all the plumbing. So it’s a little bit more complicated. There’s a lot of work in cities to put water in the ground, and I totally understand why. But if you’re ever in New York City on a rainy day, it’s raining above the ground and it’s raining below the ground, in the subway system. Water is single-minded like this. It just wants to go downhill.

Klimek: It sounds like we really need to think about more than just rerouting water to solve some of these problems that coastal cities are experiencing. What are the opportunities that we could open up by thinking about more than just moving excess water from one place to another place?

Sanderson: Well, I think we need to think about the mitigation side. Of course, everything we’ve talked about adapting to flooding doesn’t mean we don’t have to do something about trying to decrease the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere. Floods are a big problem in cities, both because of the way we’ve made our cities and because of the way cities have changed the atmosphere. I mean, there’s the basic climate change fact that the atmosphere has a lot more carbon dioxide in it and other greenhouse gases than it did before. Those holding the heat, the warmer air holds more water and has more energy. And so that creates larger storms. So there’s that.

One thing I think a lot about is we tend to forget that we make a lot of choices about how we live in the city. So there’s a sort of lifestyle aspect to this, as well as a sort of urban planning aspect to it, if you like. And I think we could do a lot more on the lifestyle side. Some of that is just coming to this expectation that, yes, there’s going to be flooding in our cities and another ecosystems, right? These things are not going away anytime soon. So we just need to, like, reset, maybe, our expectation that we can build pipes large enough to handle all the water and that, you know, despite whatever the conditions are, if it’s pouring rain, maybe you can’t go outside, or maybe you can’t do something that you were able to do before. So that’s one thing.

A second one is to sort of think about those sort of lifestyle choices in terms of all the things you need to do about them. Flooding, about where the water goes, that’s in conversation with where the cars go and where people go. So the transportation networks. There’s some clever ideas there. If you look at the New York City streets now, they’re designed with this bend, so they’re higher in the middle so that the water sheets off toward the gutters on the side. But there’s been some experiments in cities around the world to build them the other way, lower in the middle, and the water comes in. And so basically when there’s a flood, you close the road. And for the short period of time, that road is a stream. Not traffic. It’s a stream. And it turns out that some of our roads are on old streams. And so that kind of solution could work. So these are quite clever things that you can do.

Klimek: How would it benefit people to take that into account, to start to think more ecologically and adjust our expectations? How would we ultimately benefit from this?

Sanderson: Well, in the near term, we won’t die, right? Like we won’t drown, and we won’t lose our stuff, and we won’t have the social unrest that arises from those bad things. But to sort of turn around in a positive mode at some level, I think this is what life is for, right? Knowing how to live here on Earth with the nature that we have. It’s that kind of deep-seated understanding and desire to be the best person I can be in this amazing, amazing planet that we have that has led my whole career in conservation.

Klimek: Eric Sanderson is the vice president of urban conservation for the New York Botanical Garden. He is also the author of Mannahatta: A Natural History of New York City, which is an ecological history of Manhattan Island. Thank you, Dr. Sanderson, for talking with us.

Sanderson: Terrific. Thank you so much, Chris.

Klimek: To hear more from Eric Sanderson, subscribe to NYBG’s brand new podcast, which is called “Plant People.” We’ll put a link in our show notes along with links to more resources, including Xander Peters’ Smithsonian article about the Ike Dike.


Klimek: Before we let you go, let’s give you one last dinner party fact to tide you over as we wrap up our season.

Ted Scheinman: I’m Ted Scheinman. I’m a senior editor here at Smithsonian magazine, and I recently edited a great piece by our frequent contributor Richard Grant about Akito Kawahara, who is a butterfly scientist at the University of Florida. And Kawahara’s recent research has changed our understanding of butterflies in major ways. He has traced the evolution of butterflies directly from moths. Butterflies became butterflies when they became day-flying, essentially. But a really curious and, to me, sort of funny wrinkle here is that some of those butterflies who escaped the night and became day-flying, then evolved back into being night fliers and into essentially being moths again, which I can’t help but consider a sort of step backward, like moving back in with your parents or something. But it goes to show you that, you know, evolution is not, you know, directional. And it always brings up some crazy stuff.


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Controversial UK oil field publishes full scale of climate impact

The impact from the Rosebank oil field is estimated at nearly 250 million tonnes of planet warming CO2.

The UK's largest undeveloped oil field has revealed the full scale of its environmental impact, should it gain approval by the government.Developers of the Rosebank oil field said nearly 250 million tonnes of planet warming gas would be released from using oil products from the field.The amount would vary each year, but by comparison the UK's annual emissions in 2024 were 371 million tonnes.The field's developer said its emissions were "not significant" considering the UK's international climate commitments.Rosebank is an oil and gas field which lies about 80 miles north-west of Shetland and is one of the largest undeveloped discoveries of fossil fuels in UK waters.It is said to contain up to 300 million barrels of oil and some gas, and is owned by Norwegian energy giant Equinor and British firm Ithaca Energy.The field was originally approved in 2023, but in July a court ruled that a more detailed assessment of the field's environmental impact was required, taking into account the effect on the climate of burning any fossil fuels extracted from it.A public consultation has now been opened, and will run until 20th November 2025.The final decision on whether to approve the field will be made by the Energy Secretary.Until recently such projects were only required to consider the impact on the environment from extracting the fossil fuels.But in June last year the Supreme Court ruled that authorities must take account of the impact from also using the products, after a woman in Surrey challenged the development of her local gas project.This ruling was then used in a further challenge to the Rosebank oil field by environmental campaigners Uplift and Greenpeace - which was subsequently successful in January. Equinor was required to recalculate the "full impact" of the field and it now estimates that it will contribute an additional 249 million tonnes of the planet warming gas CO2 over the next 25 years. This is more than 50 times greater than the original figure of 4.5 million tonnes it gave from extracting the oil and gas.The UK has a target to produce no additional emissions by 2050 and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has been vocal about the need to move away from fossil fuels. On Tuesday, he told an industry conference that the UK's dependence on fossil fuels was its "Achilles' heel" and argued clean power was the only way to reduce bills.The fossil fuels for the Rosebank field are not guaranteed to be used in the UK but would be sold on the international market.As such the project is unlikely to have an impact on lowering gas prices. The UK's independent climate advisors said in 2022 that any more domestic oil and gas extraction would have "at most, a marginal effect on prices".But Arne Gurtner, Equinor's senior vice president for the UK, has previously said that: "If the UK needs Rosebank oil, it will go to the UK through open market mechanisms."

The Blue-State Governors Who’ve Gone Weak on Climate Policy

If you scroll California Governor Gavin Newsom’s press releases, a portrait emerges of a undaunted climate fighter. One day he’s “paving [the] way for climate pollution-cutting technology”; another he’s launching “new international climate partnerships as Trump unleashes unhinged UN rant.” Last month, he announced the signing of a suite of measures “saving billions on electric bills, stabilizing [the] gas market and cutting pollution.” But look under the hood, and his heroic self-image dims somewhat. That big legislative package, for instance, also increases oil drilling and sets up a regional electricity market that “could tether California to fossil-fuel states at a time when the Trump administration is moving to roll back clean energy,” CalMatters reported.With Trump in death-drive mode on climate, canceling renewable energy projects left and right and even forbidding federal agencies to use language such as “climate change,” “green,”or “sustainable,” blue-state governors are well positioned to distinguish themselves and their party on the issue. They also have a responsibility: The states are our best hope for policy at a scale to match the problem. Yet a worrying trend is taking shape: Blue-state governors are making a big show of battling the Trump administration, but on climate issues they’ve been disappointing—and sometimes downright infuriating. Last month’s climate package wasn’t the California Democrats’ first flub this year. Over the summer, in what Politico dubbed the state’s “Great Climate Retreat,” they weakened limits on the carbon intensity of transportation fuels, rolled back environmental reviews for new housing, and lifted a cap on oil industry profits. “California was the vocal climate leader during the first Trump administration,” Chris Chavez, deputy policy director for the Coalition for Clean Air, told Politico. “It’s questionable whether or not that leadership is still there.” In Maryland, a climate advisory panel appointed by Governor Wes Moore has hit the brakes on a carbon trading measure, and late last month the state Department of the Environment, or MDE, appeared to cave to the Trump administration in abandoning some environmental justice metrics, which many fear means abandoning Black and brown communities to the whims of polluters. “It just appears to me that MDE blatantly does not want to be accountable in the massive pollution and the overburden of these heavy industrial industries,” Kamita Gray, a community leader in Brandywine—a majority-Black town that’s home to gas-fired power plants, a coal ash dump, and a Superfund site—told Maryland Matters.Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania too is under fire from climate critics. As attorney general, he authored a solid road map for protecting Pennsylvanians from the harmful environmental and health effects of fracking, but in his two years as governor he has allowed companies to be secretive about the chemicals used in fracking, and has not pushed to pass any laws curbing the industry. The Environmental Health Project, a Pittsburgh-based nonprofit, said “residents are still waiting for meaningful action. Our assessment concludes that the Shapiro administration has not fulfilled the commitments the governor made to Pennsylvanians in general and to frontline communities in particular.”And then there’s New York. Governor Kathy Hochul has been failing to follow the decarbonization timeline that was outlined in the state’s 2019 climate law, prompting environmental justice groups to sue her. She has delayed plans for “cap and invest” and is dragging her feet on building public renewables (despite the state’s landmark Build Public Renewables Act, which passed in 2023). She has seemingly caved to Trump by going ahead with gas pipelines she previously rejected. And it’s unclear whether she will sign a repeal of the outdated “100 foot rule,” which requires utility ratepayers to subsize the cost of connecting new customers to the gas system, a reform that has long been a priority of the state’s climate movement.Part of what’s so self-destructive here is that energy affordability is a highly salient issue for voters, taking center stage, for example in the governor’s race in New Jersey, where electricity rates have risen 22 percent. Interviewed in Friday’s New York Times on this subject, David Springe of the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates described electricity as “the new eggs,” an indicator of how costly daily life is for most Americans. Republicans in New York have seized on the problem as an opportunity to blame Democrats and climate-friendly policies. Stephan Edel of New York Renews, a progressive coalition fighting for clean energy, told me the governor “has spoken really eloquently about the need to do something about affordability.” Indeed, she endorsed Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist, for New York City mayor, partly for this reason. She often uses “affordability” to justify rightward shifts or retreats from climate policy, he said, adding that, inexplicably, she also shies away from touting the affordability benefits of climate policies that she does support. For example, in the state budget last year, she agreed to invest over a billion dollars in funding for climate programs, including one that will help make homes for low-income New Yorkers more energy efficient and another that will save school districts money by shifting to electric school buses. Instead of touting those wins for affordability—or embracing the potential of publicly owned renewables to do the same—she’s embraced the Republican narrative that climate policy and affordability are at odds.By contrast, Mikie Sherill in New Jersey has been touting clean energy as a solution to energy affordability woes. If she gets elected and continues this path, more blue state governors should follow her lead. The Democratic base is desperate to see its leaders stand up to Trump on both climate and affordability. (And when Democratic governors do stand up to Trump on anything—Illinois’s JB Pritzker on the militarization of Chicago, Maine’s Janet Mills on health care—their poll numbers spike.)And the reverse is also true—failing to differentiate themselves from Trump has been political suicide for many Democrats. “Every time one of these elected officials says, ‘I’m going to stand up to Trump, I’m going to protect affordability, I’m going to address climate change,’ and then doesn’t do it,” that’s a win for the Republicans, Edel said, because it fuels low turnout for Democratic voters. Climate offers an obvious opportunity to isolate the Republicans on a matter of broad concern, renew Americans’ faith in government, and make real progress. The Democratic governors flailing so badly on this issue have not only a moral obligation to change course, but also a political one.

If you scroll California Governor Gavin Newsom’s press releases, a portrait emerges of a undaunted climate fighter. One day he’s “paving [the] way for climate pollution-cutting technology”; another he’s launching “new international climate partnerships as Trump unleashes unhinged UN rant.” Last month, he announced the signing of a suite of measures “saving billions on electric bills, stabilizing [the] gas market and cutting pollution.” But look under the hood, and his heroic self-image dims somewhat. That big legislative package, for instance, also increases oil drilling and sets up a regional electricity market that “could tether California to fossil-fuel states at a time when the Trump administration is moving to roll back clean energy,” CalMatters reported.With Trump in death-drive mode on climate, canceling renewable energy projects left and right and even forbidding federal agencies to use language such as “climate change,” “green,”or “sustainable,” blue-state governors are well positioned to distinguish themselves and their party on the issue. They also have a responsibility: The states are our best hope for policy at a scale to match the problem. Yet a worrying trend is taking shape: Blue-state governors are making a big show of battling the Trump administration, but on climate issues they’ve been disappointing—and sometimes downright infuriating. Last month’s climate package wasn’t the California Democrats’ first flub this year. Over the summer, in what Politico dubbed the state’s “Great Climate Retreat,” they weakened limits on the carbon intensity of transportation fuels, rolled back environmental reviews for new housing, and lifted a cap on oil industry profits. “California was the vocal climate leader during the first Trump administration,” Chris Chavez, deputy policy director for the Coalition for Clean Air, told Politico. “It’s questionable whether or not that leadership is still there.” In Maryland, a climate advisory panel appointed by Governor Wes Moore has hit the brakes on a carbon trading measure, and late last month the state Department of the Environment, or MDE, appeared to cave to the Trump administration in abandoning some environmental justice metrics, which many fear means abandoning Black and brown communities to the whims of polluters. “It just appears to me that MDE blatantly does not want to be accountable in the massive pollution and the overburden of these heavy industrial industries,” Kamita Gray, a community leader in Brandywine—a majority-Black town that’s home to gas-fired power plants, a coal ash dump, and a Superfund site—told Maryland Matters.Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania too is under fire from climate critics. As attorney general, he authored a solid road map for protecting Pennsylvanians from the harmful environmental and health effects of fracking, but in his two years as governor he has allowed companies to be secretive about the chemicals used in fracking, and has not pushed to pass any laws curbing the industry. The Environmental Health Project, a Pittsburgh-based nonprofit, said “residents are still waiting for meaningful action. Our assessment concludes that the Shapiro administration has not fulfilled the commitments the governor made to Pennsylvanians in general and to frontline communities in particular.”And then there’s New York. Governor Kathy Hochul has been failing to follow the decarbonization timeline that was outlined in the state’s 2019 climate law, prompting environmental justice groups to sue her. She has delayed plans for “cap and invest” and is dragging her feet on building public renewables (despite the state’s landmark Build Public Renewables Act, which passed in 2023). She has seemingly caved to Trump by going ahead with gas pipelines she previously rejected. And it’s unclear whether she will sign a repeal of the outdated “100 foot rule,” which requires utility ratepayers to subsize the cost of connecting new customers to the gas system, a reform that has long been a priority of the state’s climate movement.Part of what’s so self-destructive here is that energy affordability is a highly salient issue for voters, taking center stage, for example in the governor’s race in New Jersey, where electricity rates have risen 22 percent. Interviewed in Friday’s New York Times on this subject, David Springe of the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates described electricity as “the new eggs,” an indicator of how costly daily life is for most Americans. Republicans in New York have seized on the problem as an opportunity to blame Democrats and climate-friendly policies. Stephan Edel of New York Renews, a progressive coalition fighting for clean energy, told me the governor “has spoken really eloquently about the need to do something about affordability.” Indeed, she endorsed Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist, for New York City mayor, partly for this reason. She often uses “affordability” to justify rightward shifts or retreats from climate policy, he said, adding that, inexplicably, she also shies away from touting the affordability benefits of climate policies that she does support. For example, in the state budget last year, she agreed to invest over a billion dollars in funding for climate programs, including one that will help make homes for low-income New Yorkers more energy efficient and another that will save school districts money by shifting to electric school buses. Instead of touting those wins for affordability—or embracing the potential of publicly owned renewables to do the same—she’s embraced the Republican narrative that climate policy and affordability are at odds.By contrast, Mikie Sherill in New Jersey has been touting clean energy as a solution to energy affordability woes. If she gets elected and continues this path, more blue state governors should follow her lead. The Democratic base is desperate to see its leaders stand up to Trump on both climate and affordability. (And when Democratic governors do stand up to Trump on anything—Illinois’s JB Pritzker on the militarization of Chicago, Maine’s Janet Mills on health care—their poll numbers spike.)And the reverse is also true—failing to differentiate themselves from Trump has been political suicide for many Democrats. “Every time one of these elected officials says, ‘I’m going to stand up to Trump, I’m going to protect affordability, I’m going to address climate change,’ and then doesn’t do it,” that’s a win for the Republicans, Edel said, because it fuels low turnout for Democratic voters. Climate offers an obvious opportunity to isolate the Republicans on a matter of broad concern, renew Americans’ faith in government, and make real progress. The Democratic governors flailing so badly on this issue have not only a moral obligation to change course, but also a political one.

Nations Meet to Consider Regulations to Drive a Green Transition in Shipping

Maritime nations are meeting in London to discuss regulations that could shift the shipping industry away from fossil fuels

The world’s largest maritime nations are gathering in London on Tuesday to consider adopting regulations that would move the shipping industry away from fossil fuels to slash emissions.If the deal is adopted, this will be the first time a global fee is imposed on planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. Most ships today run on heavy fuel oil that releases carbon dioxide and other pollutants as it’s burned. That would be a major win for the climate, public health, the ocean and marine life, said Delaine McCullough at the Ocean Conservancy. For too long, ships have run on crude, dirty oil, she said.“This agreement provides a lesson for the world that legally-binding climate action is possible," McCullough, shipping program director for the nonprofit environmental advocacy group, said. Shipping emissions have grown over the last decade to about 3% of the global total as trade has grown and vessels use immense amounts of fossil fuels to transport cargo over long distances. The regulations would set a pricing system for gas emissions The regulations, or “Net-zero Framework,” sets a marine fuel standard that decreases, over time, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed from using shipping fuels. The regulations also establish a pricing system that would impose fees for every ton of greenhouse gases emitted by ships above allowable limits, in what is effectively the first global tax on greenhouse gas emissions.There's a base-level of compliance for the allowable greenhouse gas intensity of fuels. There's a more stringent direct compliance target that requires further reduction in the greenhouse gas intensity.If ships sail on fuels with lower emissions than what's required under the direct compliance target, they earn “surplus units," effectively credits. Ships with the highest emissions would have to buy those credits from other ships under the pricing system, or from the IMO at $380 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent to reach the base level of compliance. In addition, there's a penalty of $100 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent to reach direct compliance. Ships that meet the base target but not the direct compliance one must pay the $100 per ton penalty, too. Ships whose greenhouse gas intensity is below a certain threshold will receive rewards for their performance.The fees could generate $11 billion to $13 billion in revenue annually. That would go into an IMO fund to invest in fuels and technologies needed to transition to green shipping, reward low-emission ships and support developing countries so they aren’t left behind with dirty fuels and old ships. Looking for alternative fuels Ships could lower their emissions by using alternative fuels, running on electricity or using onboard carbon capture technologies. Wind propulsion and other energy efficiency advancements can also help reduce fuel consumption and emissions as part of an energy transition. Large ships last about 25 years, so the industry would need to make changes and investments now to reach net-zero around 2050.If adopted, the regulations will enter into force in 2027. Large oceangoing ships over 5,000 gross tonnage, which emit 85% of the total carbon emissions from international shipping, would have to pay penalties for their emissions starting in 2028, according to the IMO. The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents over 80% of the world’s merchant fleet, is advocating for adoption. Concerns over biofuels produced from food crops Heavy fuel oil, liquefied natural gas and biodiesel will be dominant for most of the 2030s and 2040s, unless the IMO further incentivizes green alternatives, according to modeling from Transport and Environment, a Brussels-based environmental nongovernmental organization. The way the rules are designed essentially make biofuels the cheapest fuel to use to comply, but biofuels require huge amounts of crops, pushing out less profitable food production, often leading to additional land clearance and deforestation, said Faig Abbasov, shipping director at T&E. They are urging the IMO to promote scalable green alternatives, not recklessly promote biofuels produced from food crops, Abbasov said. As it stands now, the deal before the IMO won't deliver net-zero emissions by 2050, he added.Green ammonia will get to a price that it’s appealing to ship owners in the late 2040s — quite late in the transition, according to the modeling. The NGO also sees green methanol playing an important role in the long-term transition. The vote at the London meeting The IMO aims for consensus in decision-making but it's likely nations will vote on adopting the regulations. At the April meeting, a vote was called to approve the contents of the regulations. The United States was notably absent in April, but plans to participate in this meeting. Teresa Bui at Pacific Environment said she's optimistic “global momentum is on our side” and a majority of countries will support adoption. Bui is senior climate campaign director for the environmental nonprofit, which has consultative, or non-voting, status at the IMO. If it fails, shipping’s decarbonization will be further delayed.“It's difficult to know for sure what the precise consequences will be, but failure this week will certainly lead to delay, which means ships will emit more greenhouse gases than they would have done and for longer, continuing their outsized contribution to the climate crisis,” said John Maggs, of the Clean Shipping Coalition, who is at the London meeting. The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Oct. 2025

For the first time, we linked a new fossil fuel project to hundreds of deaths. Here’s the impact of Woodside’s Scarborough gas project

The results challenge claims that the climate risks posed by an individual fossil fuel project are negligible or cannot be quantified.

Massimo Valicchia/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesGlobal warming from Woodside’s massive Scarborough gas project off Western Australia would lead to 484 additional heat-related deaths in Europe alone this century, and kill about 16 million additional corals on the Great Barrier Reef during each future mass bleaching event, our new research has revealed. The findings were made possible by a robust, well-established formula that can determine the extent to which an individual fossil fuel project will warm the planet. The results can be used to calculate the subsequent harms to society and nature. The results close a fundamental gap between science and decision-making about fossil fuel projects. They also challenge claims by proponents that climate risks posed by a fossil fuel project are negligible or cannot be quantified. Each new investment in coal and gas, such as the Scarborough project, can now be linked to harmful effects both today and in the future. It means decision-makers can properly assess the range of risks a project poses to humanity and the planet, before deciding if it should proceed. Each new investment in coal and gas extraction can now be linked to harmful effects. Shutterstock Every tonne of CO₂ matters Scientists know every tonne of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions makes global warming worse. But proponents of new fossil fuel projects in Australia routinely say their future greenhouse gas emissions are negligible compared to the scale of global emissions, or say the effects of these emissions on global warming can’t be measured. The Scarborough project is approved for development and is expected to produce gas from next year. Located off WA, it includes wells connected by a 430km pipeline to an onshore processing facility. The gas will be liquefied and burned for energy, both in Australia and overseas. Production is expected to last more than 30 years. When natural gas is burned, more than 99% of it converts to CO₂. Woodside – in its own evaluation of the Scarborough gas project – claimed: it is not possible to link GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions from Scarborough with climate change or any particular climate-related impacts given the estimated […] emissions associated with Scarborough are negligible in the context of existing and future predicted global GHG concentrations. But what if there was a way to measure the harms? That’s the question our research set out to answer. A method already exists to directly link global emissions to the climate warming they cause. It uses scientific understanding of Earth’s systems, direct observations and climate model simulations. According to the IPCC, every 1,000 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions causes about 0.45°C of additional global warming. This arithmetic forms the basis for calculating how much more CO₂ humanity can emit to keep warming within the Paris Agreement goals. But decisions about future emissions are not made at the global scale. Instead, Earth’s climate trajectory will be determined by the aggregation of decisions on many individual projects. That’s why our research extended the IPCC method to the level of individual projects – an approach that we illustrate using the Scarborough gas project. Scarborough’s harms laid bare Over its lifetime, the Scarborough project is expected to emit 876 million tonnes of CO₂. We estimate these emissions will cause 0.00039°C of additional global warming. Estimates such as these are typically expressed as a range, alongside a measure of confidence in the projection. In this case, there is a 66–100% likelihood that the Scarborough project will cause additional global warming of between 0.00024°C and 0.00055°C. This additional warming might seem small – but it will cause tangible damage. The human cost of global warming can be quantified by considering how many people will be left outside the “human climate niche” – in other words, the climate conditions in which societies have historically thrived. We calculated that the additional warming from the Scarborough project will expose 516,000 people globally to a local climate that’s beyond the hot extreme of the human climate niche. We drilled down into specific impacts in Europe, where suitable health data was available across 854 cities. Our best estimate is that this project would cause an additional 484 heat-related deaths in Europe by the end of this century. The project would cause an additional 484 heat-related deaths in Europe by the end of this century. Antonio Masiello/Getty Images And what about harm to nature? Using research into how accumulated exposure to heat affects coral reefs, we found about 16 million corals on the Great Barrier Reef would be lost in each new mass bleaching. The existential threat to the Great Barrier Reef from human-caused global warming is already being realised. Additional warming instigated by new fossil fuel projects will ratchet up pressure on this natural wonder. As climate change worsens, countries are seeking to slash emissions to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement. So, we looked at the impact of Scarborough’s emissions on Australia’s climate targets. We calculated that by 2049, the anticipated emissions from the Scarborough project alone – from production, processing and domestic use – will comprise 49% of Australia’s entire annual CO₂ emissions budget under our commitment to net-zero by 2050. Beyond the 2050 deadline, all emissions from the Scarborough project would require technologies to permanently remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. Achieving that would require a massive scale-up of current technologies. It would be more prudent to reduce greenhouse gas emissions where possible. ‘Negligible’ impacts? Hardly Our findings mean the best-available scientific evidence can now be used by companies, governments and regulators when deciding if a fossil fuel project will proceed. Crucially, it is no longer defensible for companies proposing new or extended fossil fuel projects to claim the climate harms will be negligible. Our research shows the harms are, in fact, tangible and quantifiable – and no project is too small to matter. In response to issues raised in this article, a spokesperson for Woodside said: Woodside is committed to playing a role in the energy transition. The Scarborough reservoir contains less than 0.1% carbon dioxide. Combined with processing design efficiencies at the offshore floating production unit and onshore Pluto Train 2, the project is expected to be one of the lowest carbon intensity sources of LNG delivered into north Asian markets. We will reduce the Scarborough Energy Project’s direct greenhouse gas emissions to as low as reasonably practicable by incorporating energy efficiency measures in design and operations. Further information on how this is being achieved is included in the Scarborough Offshore Project Proposal, sections 4.5.4.1 and 7.1.3 and in approved Australian Government environment plans, available on the regulator’s website. A report prepared by consultancy ACIL Allen has found that Woodside’s Scarborough Energy Project is expected to generate an estimated A$52.8 billion in taxation and royalty payments, boost GDP by billions of dollars between 2024 and 2056 and employ 3,200 people during peak construction in Western Australia. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research CouncilAndrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Future Fellowship and Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather) and the National Environmental Science Program. Nicola Maher receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia

Emissions linked to Woodside’s Scarborough gas project could lead to at least 480 deaths, research suggests

Scientists have examined the $16.5bn project’s climate impact and found it could expose more than half a million people to unprecedented heatSign up for climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s free Clear Air newsletter hereGreenhouse emissions linked to a gas field being developed by Australian fossil fuel company Woodside could lead to the death of at least 480 people and expose more than half a million to unprecedented heat, new research suggests.Scientists from six universities have examined the climate impact of the $16.5bn Scarborough project, which is expected to start production off the northern Western Australian coast next year and could result in 876m tonnes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere over three decades. Continue reading...

Greenhouse emissions linked to a gas field being developed by Australian fossil fuel company Woodside could lead to the death of at least 480 people and expose more than half a million to unprecedented heat, new research suggests.Scientists from six universities have examined the climate impact of the $16.5bn Scarborough project, which is expected to start production off the northern Western Australian coast next year and could result in 876m tonnes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere over three decades.Emissions from the project would contribute 0.00039C to global heating, they estimate. Using recently developed techniques known as climate attribution, they suggest that fraction of warming would expose an additional 516,000 people globally to unprecedented heat, and result in the loss of an extra 16m coral colonies in the Great Barrier Reef in every future bleaching event.It would also push 356,000 people outside the “human climate niche” – the reasonable zone for human survival, with an upper limit for average annual temperature of 29C.The study, published in the journal Climate Action, forms part of a new focus in climate science that aims to quantify the impacts of individual fossil fuel projects and emitters.A Woodside spokesperson said the company would reduce the Scarborough project’s “direct greenhouse gas emissions to as low as reasonably practicable by incorporating energy efficiency measures in design and operations”.“Climate change is caused by the net global concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” they added. “It cannot be attributed to any one event, country, industry or activity.” Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletterBut study co-author Andrew King, an associate professor in climate science at the University of Melbourne, said the research illustrated that individual projects had tangible climate impacts.“Often the argument made for individual projects that would involve greenhouse gas emissions is that they are quite small [in the global context],” he said. “But really, especially with larger fossil fuel projects, we can very clearly say that the impacts are not negligible.”Study co-author Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a professor of climate science at the Australian National University, said that given Australia’s emission reductions requirements, in the coming decades Scarborough would also constitute a greater proportion of the country’s CO2 emissions budget.“By 2049, assuming that the Scarborough project emits the same amount year on year, it’s going to be chewing up half of our emissions budget,” Perkins-Kirkpatrick said. “That’s the stuff that we burn here, let alone what we export overseas.”Beyond 2050, emissions from Scarborough would require CO2 removal from the atmosphere – “technologies that either don’t exist yet, or that we can’t scale up”, she said.skip past newsletter promotionSign up to Clear Air AustraliaAdam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisisPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.after newsletter promotionUnder a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, warming contributed by Scarborough would cause an additional 484 heat-related deaths in Europe alone by the end of the century, the researchers calculated. Taking into account a reduction in cold-related deaths in Europe, they estimate a net contribution of 118 additional deaths.The researchers calculated the project’s climate impacts with a tool used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, called the Transient Climate Response to CO2 Emissions (TCRE). The TCRE estimates that every 1,000 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions causes 0.45C of additional global heating.Scarborough’s contribution to global heating had a likely range between 0.00024C and 0.00055C, the study’s authors estimated, but they noted “direct measurement of global mean temperature changes is not possible with this level of precision”.The approach could be used by governments and companies to assess whether future “projects fall within acceptable levels of environmental and societal risk”, the researchers suggest. The tool “could be part of the process for determining whether a project should be approved”, King said.Yuming Guo, a professor of global environmental health and biostatistics at Monash University, who was not involved in the study, said the study provided “a valuable tool for conducting environmental risk assessments”.“Considering the vast number of fossil fuel projects operating globally, the cumulative contribution of these emissions to climate change is substantial and should not be overlooked,” he said.Dr Kat O’Mara, a senior lecturer in environmental management and sustainability at Edith Cowan University, who was not part of the study, said: “With the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion a few months ago that countries need to take action to protect the climate, this new research reinforces the need to consider climate impacts beyond just how much carbon is being produced.”

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