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The youth mental health crisis is hitting LGBTQ+ teens hardest

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Wednesday, August 14, 2024

People raise pride flags to support the book Gender Queer, a graphic novel about a nonbinary teen, at a school board meeting in 2022. | H. Rick Bamman/Pioneer Press/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report on their 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). The report includes data on a wide range of health-related behaviors of high school students in the United States, and breaks down these behaviors across different demographics. The results underscore the fact that we’re in the middle of a youth mental health crisis that has been steadily worsening for years — one that is particularly acute for LGBTQ+ youth.  According to the report, 41 percent of LGBTQ+ teens seriously considered suicide during the previous 12 months, 32 percent made a plan to do so, and 20 percent attempted to end their own life. By comparison, 13 percent of cisgender and heterosexual students seriously considered suicide, 11 percent made a plan, and 6 percent attempted suicide.  While LGBTQ+ representation and rights have improved in the last few decades, large swaths of queer and trans kids are still living in an environment that is deeply hostile to their very existence. There’s a long and ongoing conservative culture war that aims to reverse what progress has been made in recent years for the LGBTQ+ community, culminating in legislation and policies that harm LGBTQ+ youth, like restricting gender-affirming health care, forcing schools to out queer and trans students to their parents, and banning books that have LGBTQ+ content.  To understand how we can help bring down these stark mental health disparities for LGBTQ+ teens, it’s critical that we first look at the overall youth mental health crisis, and the unique challenge that LGBTQ+ teens are facing on top of it. The state of youth mental health It’s never been easy to be a teenager, but today’s youth are clearly facing a mental health crisis. Suicide is one of the leading causes of death for teens in the United States. They’re more depressed and anxious. And it’s only been getting worse since the early 2010s. For the 2023 report, which is conducted every other year, over 20,000 questionnaires were filled out by students from 155 schools across the US. The CDC researchers found that while some improvements have been made for youth health and well-being, largely all other mental health indicators worsened. We shouldn’t overlook the small glimmers of hope, though. Hispanic youth who made a plan to kill themselves dropped from 19 percent in 2021 to 16 percent in 2023. And in that same time period, Black students who attempted suicide dropped from 14 percent to 10 percent. Worried about a child or teen’s mental well-being? Here are some online resources to learn more about symptoms, treatment strategies, and how to help. Effective Child Therapy is a resource from the Society of Clinical Child and Adolescent Psychology. The website has information on the emotional concerns, symptoms, and disorders that commonly impact teens (divorce, bullying, body image, anxiety, depression, and more) — and the evidence-based therapies that can help. The American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry has information for parents on how to spot symptoms of mental health issues, and where to seek help. The Clay Center for Young Healthy Minds has educational articles on mental health issues, as well as many links for where to turn when searching for particular support groups, programs, and therapies. The Crisis Text Line is a text messaging-based service for people enduring “any type of crisis.” And the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline is a phone-based service. The Trevor Project is a crisis helpline for LGBTQ+ youth. It can be reached at 1-866-488-7386. But for LGBTQ+ youth — which the report indicated had higher rates of suicidality than all other groups —  there just isn’t enough comparable data yet to show a trend over time in the YRBS. 2015 was the first year that the CDC started measuring sexuality as a demographic, but it only included lesbian, gay, and bisexual as options to pick from. In 2021, they adjusted that to include students who were questioning their sexuality. Only this most recent report now includes transgender students. Because of these changes in measurement, it will take years for us to get a more accurate picture of how LGBTQ+ mental health is faring.  And while the report gives us a lot of helpful information, it doesn’t give us data for youth who hold multiple identities, like LGBTQ+ youth of color — who face unique challenges of their own.     “Queer youth of color, trans youth of color, are dealing with stigma tied to not just being queer and youth of color, but also the intersecting stigma of both,” said Allen Mallory, an assistant professor of human development at Ohio State University. Navigating the intersection of these identities can be stressors for LGBTQ+ teens of color, Mallory says. There is no one singular force to blame for why teens are suffering from poor mental health and suicidal thoughts, but researchers have some hypotheses. A big debate in youth mental health is the use of social media and smartphones, with some researchers pointing to these digital tools as a major driver in worsening trends. But other experts argue that phones and social media are not the driving force behind declining mental health for youth — and have pointed out that for kids who lack connection in real life, finding community online is a real solace. The developmental collision It might seem surprising that LGBTQ+ youth mental health appears to be worsening even as the social atmosphere on LGBTQ+ rights has largely improved in recent decades. So why hasn’t that translated to improved mental health? The apparent paradox may have an explanation. Broader acceptance of LGBTQ+ people has allowed for more visibility and for people to come out as queer or trans at younger ages. That means instead of coming out as a young adult or even later on, kids are coming out in early adolescence.  But that particular period of human development — being a teenager — is a heightened time of self-consciousness and peer regulation, especially for precisely those younger teens who are also in the process of coming out. Stephen Russell, a professor and director of University of Texas at Austin’s School of Human Ecology, calls this “developmental collision.” “Kids are coming out right at this time that, developmentally, is the most they’re most attuned to regulating each other,” says Russell. For LGBTQ+ youth, this period of peer regulation can mean facing bullying and discrimination from their classmates on the basis of their sexuality or gender — a unique challenge that comes on top of typical teenage challenges. (Staying in the closet isn’t a solution, either. Kids deserve to be their authentic selves, not shamed into hiding.) “The dynamic of coming out at a younger age in these times elicits and invites and creates the possibility for wonderful things, but also for stigma and other kinds of vulnerability,” he added.  Other bigger, structural and environmental issues play a part in this mental health crisis. From climate change to growing gun violence, finding safety and stability — crucial for mental and physical well-being — has taken a toll. The Covid-19 pandemic, in which over 200,000 kids under 18 lost a parent or caregiver as of 2022, can’t be ruled out either. And a culture war on “wokeness,” raised by conservative politicians and pundits, has aimed to reinvigorate animosity toward youth of color and LGBTQ+ teens. To be clear, the fault is not on these teenagers for going through basic developmental periods, or for being LGBTQ+, or for struggling with big issues. What it does mean is that LGBTQ+ youth are facing unique challenges that must be recognized when creating and implementing interventions for their mental health. How to help LGBTQ+ youth The field of LGBTQ+ youth mental health is still evolving, and along with it, how to approach the subject from a clinical and public health perspective. But there are a lot of promising interventions to tackle this crisis. From a more macro perspective, implementing practices that reach people in their day-to-day life is key. For teens, a big part of everyday life involves school. One simple (and almost painfully obvious) practice to start with is inclusive, enumerated policies for LGBTQ+ youth — basically, protection from bullying and discrimination. “These policies we see at the state and school district level have really big implications for how LGBTQ youth experience school in their day to day life,” said Jessica Fish, an associate professor and the director of the Sexual Orientation, Gender Identity, and Health Research Group at University of Maryland’s School of Public Health. Multiple studies have shown that LGBTQ+ students at schools with inclusive, enumerated policies experience less victimization and bullying — two things that can really impact a kid’s mental health. But according to the Movement Advancement Project, a nonprofit think tank focused on equality and democracy, 53 percent of LGBTQ+ people live in a state with no law protecting LGBTQ+ students from bullying in school, and 42 percent live in a state with no law protecting these teens from discrimination. If tackling state law feels too big, starting with an individual school community can work too. Take gender and sexuality alliances (GSAs, formerly known as gay-straight alliances). They’re student-led clubs that give LGBTQ+ and allied students a way to connect, support one another, and learn from each other. All of the public health experts I spoke to brought up GSAs — and there’s a lot of strong evidence that shows these groups can create a safer school climate and lower the risk of suicide and depression. While researchers have a lot of good information on what’s working for improving the mental health of LGBTQ+ youth, there’s still a lot of room for more data. This is especially true when it comes to understanding what works for trans youth and LGBTQ+ youth of color.  It’s also important to note that while there is absolutely a mental health crisis for LGBTQ+ youth, many go on to become content, productive adults. It’s not their identity that sentences them to depression or suicide — it’s the stigma and discrimination they face in their homes, schools, and institutions, at a time when their age makes them deeply vulnerable and reliant on their surroundings. There are many barriers to getting clinical help or implementing measures in schools. Understandably, that can feel like an uphill battle for LGBTQ+ youth and their families. But nothing is impossible, says Fish. “These are things that will take mobilization, that will take a large degree of advocacy and grassroots support within the community,” she told me. “So I do think all of these are possible, but I think it’s just trying to figure out where the vantage point for change is.” A version of this story originally appeared in the Future Perfect newsletter. Sign up here!

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report on their 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). The report includes data on a wide range of health-related behaviors of high school students in the United States, and breaks down these behaviors across different demographics. The results underscore the fact that we’re […]

A hand raising the Philadelphia Pride Flag and the Rainbow Pride Flag. In the background is a classroom full of adults.
People raise pride flags to support the book Gender Queer, a graphic novel about a nonbinary teen, at a school board meeting in 2022. | H. Rick Bamman/Pioneer Press/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report on their 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). The report includes data on a wide range of health-related behaviors of high school students in the United States, and breaks down these behaviors across different demographics. The results underscore the fact that we’re in the middle of a youth mental health crisis that has been steadily worsening for years — one that is particularly acute for LGBTQ+ youth. 

According to the report, 41 percent of LGBTQ+ teens seriously considered suicide during the previous 12 months, 32 percent made a plan to do so, and 20 percent attempted to end their own life. By comparison, 13 percent of cisgender and heterosexual students seriously considered suicide, 11 percent made a plan, and 6 percent attempted suicide. 

While LGBTQ+ representation and rights have improved in the last few decades, large swaths of queer and trans kids are still living in an environment that is deeply hostile to their very existence. There’s a long and ongoing conservative culture war that aims to reverse what progress has been made in recent years for the LGBTQ+ community, culminating in legislation and policies that harm LGBTQ+ youth, like restricting gender-affirming health care, forcing schools to out queer and trans students to their parents, and banning books that have LGBTQ+ content. 

To understand how we can help bring down these stark mental health disparities for LGBTQ+ teens, it’s critical that we first look at the overall youth mental health crisis, and the unique challenge that LGBTQ+ teens are facing on top of it.

The state of youth mental health

It’s never been easy to be a teenager, but today’s youth are clearly facing a mental health crisis. Suicide is one of the leading causes of death for teens in the United States. They’re more depressed and anxious. And it’s only been getting worse since the early 2010s.

For the 2023 report, which is conducted every other year, over 20,000 questionnaires were filled out by students from 155 schools across the US. The CDC researchers found that while some improvements have been made for youth health and well-being, largely all other mental health indicators worsened.

We shouldn’t overlook the small glimmers of hope, though. Hispanic youth who made a plan to kill themselves dropped from 19 percent in 2021 to 16 percent in 2023. And in that same time period, Black students who attempted suicide dropped from 14 percent to 10 percent.

Worried about a child or teen’s mental well-being? Here are some online resources to learn more about symptoms, treatment strategies, and how to help.

But for LGBTQ+ youth — which the report indicated had higher rates of suicidality than all other groups —  there just isn’t enough comparable data yet to show a trend over time in the YRBS. 2015 was the first year that the CDC started measuring sexuality as a demographic, but it only included lesbian, gay, and bisexual as options to pick from. In 2021, they adjusted that to include students who were questioning their sexuality. Only this most recent report now includes transgender students. Because of these changes in measurement, it will take years for us to get a more accurate picture of how LGBTQ+ mental health is faring. 

And while the report gives us a lot of helpful information, it doesn’t give us data for youth who hold multiple identities, like LGBTQ+ youth of color — who face unique challenges of their own.    

“Queer youth of color, trans youth of color, are dealing with stigma tied to not just being queer and youth of color, but also the intersecting stigma of both,” said Allen Mallory, an assistant professor of human development at Ohio State University. Navigating the intersection of these identities can be stressors for LGBTQ+ teens of color, Mallory says.

There is no one singular force to blame for why teens are suffering from poor mental health and suicidal thoughts, but researchers have some hypotheses. A big debate in youth mental health is the use of social media and smartphones, with some researchers pointing to these digital tools as a major driver in worsening trends. But other experts argue that phones and social media are not the driving force behind declining mental health for youth — and have pointed out that for kids who lack connection in real life, finding community online is a real solace.

The developmental collision

It might seem surprising that LGBTQ+ youth mental health appears to be worsening even as the social atmosphere on LGBTQ+ rights has largely improved in recent decades. So why hasn’t that translated to improved mental health?

The apparent paradox may have an explanation. Broader acceptance of LGBTQ+ people has allowed for more visibility and for people to come out as queer or trans at younger ages. That means instead of coming out as a young adult or even later on, kids are coming out in early adolescence. 

But that particular period of human development — being a teenager — is a heightened time of self-consciousness and peer regulation, especially for precisely those younger teens who are also in the process of coming out. Stephen Russell, a professor and director of University of Texas at Austin’s School of Human Ecology, calls this “developmental collision.”

“Kids are coming out right at this time that, developmentally, is the most they’re most attuned to regulating each other,” says Russell. For LGBTQ+ youth, this period of peer regulation can mean facing bullying and discrimination from their classmates on the basis of their sexuality or gender — a unique challenge that comes on top of typical teenage challenges. (Staying in the closet isn’t a solution, either. Kids deserve to be their authentic selves, not shamed into hiding.)

“The dynamic of coming out at a younger age in these times elicits and invites and creates the possibility for wonderful things, but also for stigma and other kinds of vulnerability,” he added. 

Other bigger, structural and environmental issues play a part in this mental health crisis. From climate change to growing gun violence, finding safety and stability — crucial for mental and physical well-being — has taken a toll. The Covid-19 pandemic, in which over 200,000 kids under 18 lost a parent or caregiver as of 2022, can’t be ruled out either. And a culture war on “wokeness,” raised by conservative politicians and pundits, has aimed to reinvigorate animosity toward youth of color and LGBTQ+ teens.

To be clear, the fault is not on these teenagers for going through basic developmental periods, or for being LGBTQ+, or for struggling with big issues. What it does mean is that LGBTQ+ youth are facing unique challenges that must be recognized when creating and implementing interventions for their mental health.

How to help LGBTQ+ youth

The field of LGBTQ+ youth mental health is still evolving, and along with it, how to approach the subject from a clinical and public health perspective. But there are a lot of promising interventions to tackle this crisis.

From a more macro perspective, implementing practices that reach people in their day-to-day life is key. For teens, a big part of everyday life involves school. One simple (and almost painfully obvious) practice to start with is inclusive, enumerated policies for LGBTQ+ youth — basically, protection from bullying and discrimination.

“These policies we see at the state and school district level have really big implications for how LGBTQ youth experience school in their day to day life,” said Jessica Fish, an associate professor and the director of the Sexual Orientation, Gender Identity, and Health Research Group at University of Maryland’s School of Public Health.

Multiple studies have shown that LGBTQ+ students at schools with inclusive, enumerated policies experience less victimization and bullying — two things that can really impact a kid’s mental health. But according to the Movement Advancement Project, a nonprofit think tank focused on equality and democracy, 53 percent of LGBTQ+ people live in a state with no law protecting LGBTQ+ students from bullying in school, and 42 percent live in a state with no law protecting these teens from discrimination.

If tackling state law feels too big, starting with an individual school community can work too. Take gender and sexuality alliances (GSAs, formerly known as gay-straight alliances). They’re student-led clubs that give LGBTQ+ and allied students a way to connect, support one another, and learn from each other. All of the public health experts I spoke to brought up GSAs — and there’s a lot of strong evidence that shows these groups can create a safer school climate and lower the risk of suicide and depression.

While researchers have a lot of good information on what’s working for improving the mental health of LGBTQ+ youth, there’s still a lot of room for more data. This is especially true when it comes to understanding what works for trans youth and LGBTQ+ youth of color. 

It’s also important to note that while there is absolutely a mental health crisis for LGBTQ+ youth, many go on to become content, productive adults. It’s not their identity that sentences them to depression or suicide — it’s the stigma and discrimination they face in their homes, schools, and institutions, at a time when their age makes them deeply vulnerable and reliant on their surroundings.

There are many barriers to getting clinical help or implementing measures in schools. Understandably, that can feel like an uphill battle for LGBTQ+ youth and their families. But nothing is impossible, says Fish.

“These are things that will take mobilization, that will take a large degree of advocacy and grassroots support within the community,” she told me. “So I do think all of these are possible, but I think it’s just trying to figure out where the vantage point for change is.”

A version of this story originally appeared in the Future Perfect newsletter. Sign up here!

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

New Flu Variant Could Bring Another Severe U.S. Season

By I. Edwards HealthDay ReporterTHURSDAY, Nov. 20, 2025 (HealthDay News) — A new flu variant spreading overseas may set the stage for another tough...

THURSDAY, Nov. 20, 2025 (HealthDay News) — A new flu variant spreading overseas may set the stage for another tough winter in the United States, experts warn.The strain, called subclade K, has caused a rise in flu cases in the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan. And now signs suggest it is beginning to take hold across the United States as flu activity rises.According to the latest U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) FluView report, reported flu activity in the United States remains low but is climbing quickly.Last year’s flu season was the worst the United States had seen in nearly 15 years and led to at least 280 child deaths, according to the CDC.Most cases this year are from the H3N2 virus and about half of those belong to the subclade K variant, the same strain that fueled a difficult flu season in the Southern Hemisphere.Because it wasn’t circulating widely when strains were selected for the vaccine update, this year’s flu shot targets close strains of the virus."It’s not like we’re expecting to get complete loss of protection for the vaccine, but perhaps we might expect a little bit of a drop-off if this is the virus that sort of dominates the season, and early indications are that’s probably going to be the case," Richard Webby, a researcher at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, told CNN.Early findings from the UK Health Security Agency suggest the variant carries seven genetic changes on a major part of the virus, making it a bit harder for the body's immune system to recognize.Even so, they found that the flu shot has reduced the risk of hospitalization or emergency care by about 75% in children and 30% to 40% in adults so far this season.What worries experts even more is that fewer Americans appear to be getting the flu shot.Data from IQVIA shows that pharmacies gave 26.5 million flu vaccinations from August through October, down from 28.7 million during the same period last year."I’m not surprised," Jennifer Nuzzo, professor of epidemiology and director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, said.She said recent debates about vaccine safety have "left people confused but possibly at the worst have left people worried about getting vaccinated."Australia’s flu shot rates also fell this year and the country went on to record more than 443,000 cases."What they saw in Australia is that they had a bad season. And so it’s concerning for you and us, what’s coming," Dr. Earl Rubin, division director of infectious disease at Montreal Children’s Hospital, told CNN.Several early indicators already show flu levels rising in the U.S.The WastewaterSCAN network found type A flu in 40% of samples in November, up from 18% in October, according to Marlene Wolfe, an assistant professor in the department of environmental health at Emory University in Atlanta.Only four U.S. monitoring sites in Maine, Vermont, Iowa and Hawaii have officially crossed the threshold for declaring flu activity high, but experts say the trend is clear.While it’s not yet clear whether subclade K could cause more severe illness, a rise in infections alone could cause hospitalizations to skyrocket, Rubin noted."It’s not too late. Go and get your flu shot," Dr. Adam Lauring, chief of the division of infectious diseases at the University of Michigan Medical School, in Ann Arbor, said.These results are preliminary and have not yet been peer-reviewed.The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) has more on the flu vaccine.SOURCE: CNN, Nov. 18, 2025Copyright © 2025 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Thousands of US Hazardous Sites Are at Risk of Flooding Because of Sea Level Rise, Study Finds

A new study finds that thousands of hazardous sites across the U.S. are at risk of flooding due to sea level rise that could pose public health threats to neighboring communities

If heat-trapping pollution from burning coal, oil and gas continues unchecked, thousands of hazardous sites across the United States risk being flooded from sea level rise by the turn of the century, posing serious health risks to nearby communities, according to a new study.Researchers identified 5,500 sites that store, emit or handle sewage, trash, oil, gas and other hazards that could face coastal flooding by 2100, with much of the risk already locked in due to past emissions. But more than half the sites are projected to face flood risk much sooner — as soon as 2050. Low-income, communities of color and other marginalized groups are the most at risk.With even moderate reductions to planet-warming emissions, researchers also determined that roughly 300 fewer sites would be at risk by the end of the century. “Our goal with this analysis was to try to get ahead of the problem by looking far out into the future," said Lara J. Cushing, associate professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles who co-authored the paper published in the science journal Nature Communications.“We do have time to respond and try to mitigate the risks and also increase resilience," she added, speaking at a media briefing Wednesday ahead of the study's release. The study was funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and builds on previous research from California. Climate change is driving and accelerating sea level rise. Glaciers and ice sheets are melting, and the sea's waters are expanding as they warm. In many places along the coastal U.S., sea level rise is accelerating faster than the global average because of things like erosion and land sinking from groundwater pumping, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Thomas Chandler, managing director at the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University who was not involved in the research, said it’s “a really important study” that the public, policy makers and government agencies “need to make note of.” Derek Van Berkel, an associate professor in the school for environment and sustainability at University of Michigan who was also not involved in the study, wasn't surprised to learn about the disproportionate risks. What was “alarming” was considering the magnitude of “feedback effects” from flooding, he said. How researchers approached the data The study's researchers started by identifying and classifying tens of thousands of hazardous sites near the coasts of Puerto Rico and the 23 states with coastline. Next, they wanted to know each site's projected future flood risk. They did this by calculating how likely each year coastal flooding could inundate a site using historical sea level measurements and projected sea level rise in 2050 and 2100 under low and high emissions scenarios. Lastly, they identified and classified communities as being at-risk if homes are located within 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) of a hazardous site with a high threat of future flooding, and compared those communities' characteristics with other coastal neighborhoods with no at-risk sites nearby. But researchers did not include all types of hazardous facilities, such as oil and gas pipelines, nor did they account for groundwater upwelling or more intense and frequent storms in the future, which could lead to underestimates. On the other end, the flood-risk model they used could have overestimated the number of threatened sites. “It is important to note that previous disasters, such as hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Harvey, did result in a lot of toxic contamination from oil and gas pipelines,” Chandler said. The 5,500 at-risk sites includes 44% that are fossil fuel ports and terminals, 30% power plants, 24% refineries and 22% coastal sewage treatment facilities. Most of the sites — nearly 80% — are in Louisiana, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, California, New York and Massachusetts. Potential health impacts from exposure to hazards People exposed to flood waters near industrial animal farms or sewage treatment plants could be exposed to bacteria like E. coli, said Sacoby Wilson, professor of global, environmental and occupational health at the University of Maryland during the briefing. Symptoms can include bloody or watery diarrhea, severe stomach cramps or vomiting and fever. Those living near industrial sites like refineries could be exposed to heavy metals and chemicals that can cause rashes, burning of the eyes, nose and throat, headaches or fatigue, added Wilson, who was not involved in the study. “For folks who are vulnerable, maybe have an underlying health condition, those health conditions could be exacerbated during those flood events.” Longer term, some of these exposures could contribute to cancer, liver, kidney or other organ damage, or have reproductive effects, he said. For Chandler, the Columbia University director, the study highlights the need to heavily invest in hazard mitigation. “It's really important for federal, state and local governments in the United States to address these factors through multi-stakeholder resilience planning and encouraging local governments to integrate climate risk assessments into their mitigation strategies.”The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Nov. 2025

RFK Jr.’s Miasma Theory of Health Is Spreading

The agency is picking up Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s argument that a healthy immune system can keep even pandemic germs at bay.

Last week, the two top officials at the National Institutes of Health—the world’s largest public funder of biomedical research—debuted a new plan to help Americans weather the next pandemic: getting everyone to eat better and exercise.The standard pandemic-preparedness playbook “has failed catastrophically,” NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya and NIH Principal Deputy Director Matthew J. Memoli wrote in City Journal, a magazine and website published by the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a conservative think tank. The pair argue that finding and studying pathogens that could cause outbreaks, then stockpiling vaccines against them, is a waste of money. Instead, they say, the United States should encourage people to improve their baseline health—“whether simply by stopping smoking, controlling hypertension or diabetes, or getting up and walking more.”On its own, Bhattacharya and Memoli’s apparently serious suggestion that just being in better shape will carry the U.S. through an infectious crisis is reckless, experts told me—especially if it’s executed at the expense of other public-health responses. In an email, Andrew Nixon, the director of communications at the Department of Health and Human Services—which oversees the NIH—wrote that the agency “supports a comprehensive approach to pandemic preparedness that recognizes the importance of both biomedical tools and the factors individuals can control.” But more broadly, Bhattacharya and Memoli’s proposal reflects the spread of a dangerous philosophy that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of HHS, has been pushing for years: a dismissal of germ theory, or the notion that infectious microbes are responsible for many of the diseases that plague humankind.In his 2021 book, The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health, Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine activist, argues that modern scientists have blamed too much of infectious disease on pathogens, which he suggests are rarely problematic, unless the immune system has been compromised by poor nutrition, toxins, and other environmental stressors. He credits sanitation and nutrition for driving declines in infectious-disease deaths during the 20th century; vaccination, he has baselessly claimed, was largely ineffective and unnecessary. In his view, germs don’t pose a substantial threat to people who have done the work of “fortifying the immune system”—essentially, those who have taken their health into their own hands.In terms of general health, most Americans would benefit from improvements in diet and exercise. A strong emphasis on both has been core to the Make America Healthy Again movement, and in one important aspect, Kennedy and his allies are correct: The immune system, like other bodily systems, is sensitive to nutritional status, and when people are dealing with chronic health issues, they often fare less well against infectious threats, Melinda Beck, a nutrition and infectious-disease researcher who recently retired from the University of North Carolina, told me. Conditions such as obesity and diabetes, for instance, raise the risk of severe COVID and flu; malnutrition exacerbates the course of diseases such as tuberculosis and measles.But applied to widespread infectious outbreaks, the MAHA prescription is still deeply flawed. Being generally healthy doesn’t guarantee survival, or even better outcomes against infectious diseases—especially when an entire population encounters a pathogen against which it has no immunity. Although some evidence suggests that the 1918 flu pandemic strongly affected certain groups of people who were less healthy at baseline—including undernourished World War I soldiers—“relatively healthy people, as far as we could understand, were the main victims,” Naomi Rogers, a historian of medicine at Yale, told me. Smallpox, too, infected and killed indiscriminately. HIV has devastated many communities of young, healthy people.In his book, Kennedy relies heavily on the term miasma theory as a shorthand for preventing disease “through nutrition and by reducing exposures to environmental toxins and stresses.” He’s employing that phrase incorrectly: Historically, at least, miasma theory referred to the notion that epidemics are caused by bad air—such as toxic emanations from corpses and trash—and was the predominant way of describing disease transmission until scientists found definitive proof of infectious microbes in the late 19th century. But his choice of words is also revealing. In pitting his ideas against germ theory, he plays on a centuries-old tension between lifestyle and microbes as roots of illness.In its early days, germ theory struggled to gain traction even among physicians, many of whom dismissed the idea as simplistic, Nancy Tomes, a historian at Stony Brook University, told me. After the idea became foundational to medicine, scientists still had to work to convince some members of the public that microbes could fell healthy people, too. In the early days of polio vaccination, when the virus still ran rampant in the U.S., some vaccine-skeptical Americans insisted that children were falling seriously ill primarily because their parents weren’t managing their kids’ nutrition well and “had disrupted the child’s internal health,” Rogers told me.Over time, as pharmaceutical companies made global businesses out of selling antibiotics, vaccines, and antivirals, the products became a symbol, for some people, of how germ theory had taken over medicine. Accepting vaccines came to represent trust in scientific expertise, Rogers said; misgivings about the industry, in contrast, might translate into rejecting those offerings. In that skeptical slice of the American public and amid the rise of alternative-wellness practitioners, Kennedy has found purchase for his ideas about nutrition as a cure-all.Since taking over as health secretary, he has on occasion made that distrust in germ theory national policy. In his book, he wrote that “when a starving African child succumbs to measles, the miasmist attributes the death to malnutrition; germ theory proponents (a.k.a. virologists) blame the virus.” Earlier this year, when measles raged through undervaccinated regions of West Texas, the secretary acted out his own miasmist theory of the outbreak, urging Americans to rely on vitamin-A supplementation as a first-line defense, even though deficiency of that vitamin is rare here.But germ theory is key to understanding why outbreaks become pandemics—not because people’s general health is wanting, but because a pathogen is so unfamiliar to so many people’s immune systems at once that it is able to spread unchecked. Pandemics then end because enough people acquire sufficient immunity to that pathogen. Vaccination, when available, remains the safest way to gain that immunity—and, unlike lifestyle choices, it can represent a near-universal strategy to shore up defenses against disease. Not all of the risk factors that worsen disease severity are tunable by simply eating better or working out more. For COVID and many other respiratory diseases, for instance, old age and pregnancy remain some of the biggest risk factors. Genetic predispositions to certain medical conditions, or structural barriers to changing health habits—not just lack of willpower—can make people vulnerable to disease, too.In their article, Bhattacharya and Memoli purport to be arguing against specific strategies of pandemic preparedness, most prominently the controversial type of gain-of-function research that can involve altering the disease-causing traits of pathogens, and has been restricted by the Trump administration. But the pair also mischaracterize the country’s current approach to pandemics, which, in addition to calling for virus research and vaccine development, prioritizes measures such as surveillance, international partnerships, and improved health-care capacity, Nahid Bhadelia, the director of the Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases at Boston University, told me. And Bhattacharya and Memoli’s alternative approach cuts against the most basic logic of public health—that the clearest way to help keep a whole population healthy is to offer protections that work on a societal level and that will reach as many people as possible. Fixating on personal nutrition and exercise regimens as pandemic preparedness would leave many people entirely unprotected. At the same time, “we’re basically setting up society to blame someone” in the event that they fall ill, Jennifer Nuzzo, the director of the pandemic center at the Brown University School of Public Health, told me.Kennedy’s book bemoans that the “warring philosophies” of miasma and germ theory have become a zero-sum game. And yet, at HHS, he and his officials are presenting outbreak preparedness—and the rest of public health—as exactly that: The country should worry about environment or pathogens; it should be either pushing people to eat better or stockpiling vaccines. Over email, Nixon told me that “encouraging healthier habits is one way to strengthen resilience alongside vaccines, treatments, and diagnostics developed through NIH-funded research.” But this year, under pressure from the Trump administration, the NIH has cut funding to hundreds of vaccine- and infectious-disease focused research projects; elsewhere at HHS, officials canceled nearly half a billion dollars’ worth of contracts geared toward developing mRNA vaccines.The reality is that both environment and pathogens often influence the outcome of disease, and both should be addressed. Today’s public-health establishment might not subscribe to the 19th-century version of miasma theory, but the idea that environmental and social factors shape people’s health is still core to the field. “They’re saying you can only do one thing at a time,” Bhadelia told me. “I don’t think we have to.”

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