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Court upholds state plan to require more water in California rivers

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Wednesday, March 20, 2024

A court has upheld a key decision by California’s water board calling for reductions in water diversions from the San Joaquin River and its tributaries to help revive struggling fish populations.In his ruling, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Stephen Acquisto rejected lawsuits by water districts serving farms and cities that would be required to take less water under the standards adopted by regulators. The judge also rejected challenges by environmental groups that had argued for requiring larger cutbacks to boost river flows.The judge’s ruling, issued in a 162-page order last week, supports the State Water Resources Control Board’s 2018 adoption of a water quality plan for the lower San Joaquin River and its three major tributaries — the Tuolumne, Merced and Stanislaus rivers.The water quality standards, which focus on a portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta watershed, set goals for increasing river flows to help populations of chinook salmon and steelhead trout, which have declined dramatically.“The decision is significant because it reaffirms the board’s authority to exercise both water rights and water quality authority to protect native fishes, and to help restore flows that are necessary for native fish,” said Michael Lauffer, chief counsel for the state water board. Aggressive and impactful reporting on climate change, the environment, health and science. Agencies that had sought to challenge the state’s plan included large agricultural suppliers such as the Merced Irrigation District and Westlands Water District, as well as urban suppliers such as the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and the city of Modesto.The decision provides legal backing for California’s water board to finalize rules requiring that more water be left in the Merced, Tuolumne and Stanislaus rivers for fish and the ecosystem. Environmental groups have argued that while more water in the rivers is urgently needed, the state’s plan doesn’t go far enough to protect salmon and other fish. Currently, more than 80% of the rivers’ flows are diverted at times to supply farms and communities, leaving less than 20% of the natural flows in the rivers, Lauffer said. Once the standards are implemented, he said, the state board’s plan calls for limiting diversions during certain times of year to between 50% and 70% of total river flows — with the goal in the middle of that range. San Luis Reservoir near Los Banos is filled with water pumped from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times) State officials have for years been engaged in the complex process of developing updates to the water quality plan for San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. It took nine years of studies and deliberations before the state water board adopted the standards for the tributaries along the San Joaquin River. State officials are considering options for updating standards for the Sacramento River and the rest of the delta watershed.“These are incredibly challenging science, legal and policy issues,” Lauffer said. “This decision is important, though, because it shows that despite those challenges, when the board moves forward, carefully considers the science, carefully considers the overall legal framework, it can exercise its authority in a reasonable way to improve water flows and improve conditions so that we can reverse the precipitous decline of the delta.”The judge noted in his ruling that the goals under the state-approved plan provide for increased flows downstream from dams on each of the tributaries to help protect fish populations.“With more water being released into the tributaries and required to remain in the rivers to support the ecosystem for these fish populations, there will be less water available for diversion” to supply farms and cities, the judge wrote.While most of the plaintiffs sued in 2019 to challenge the state standards for river flows, some water agencies in the delta also sought to challenge a provision governing salinity levels. And the federal government, which initiated its suit during the Trump administration, argued that the state board hadn’t complied with requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act.The judge disagreed, rejecting a total of 12 lawsuits and 116 claims. The court ruled that the state water board complied with its obligations under state laws — one of which is the Porter-Cologne Act, the state’s water quality law.Appeals are expected in the case, Lauffer said. “I think we all recognize that ultimately the courts of appeal or the California Supreme Court will resolve some of these issues.”The state water board has yet to implement the water quality standards for the San Joaquin River. As an initial step, the board adopted biological goals last year that will guide the implementation effort, which will also determine how the reductions will affect each water user.“Ultimately, as additional flows are left in the river for the benefit of fish and for the ecosystem, it will require belt tightening around the bay-delta watershed,” Lauffer said. “Unfortunately, the processes in California water quality and water rights law are not quick. We are still likely more than a year away from final actions that would see increases in the flows in these tributaries.”Felicia Marcus, who oversaw the plan’s adoption in 2018 as chair of the state water board, said she is pleased the court supported the board’s decision and approach. A boat motors up the San Joaquin River near Stockton. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times) “As a lawyer, I felt pretty comfortable that we were on very solid ground,” Marcus said. “It’s just nice to have validation and vindication that what we did was well founded and correct.”Marcus said that while providing even more water for fish would be good “if you had a magic wand,” the board and the agency’s staff carried out a fair and comprehensive process that weighed the science and struck a fair balance. “The job of the board is to balance. And it’s always hard because balance is in the eye of the beholder,” Marcus said. The board’s 2018 decision was contentious, meeting with strong opposition from managers of water districts. Lawsuits followed. In 2019, Marcus left office when Gov. Gavin Newsom declined to reappoint her. The court ruling coincides with ongoing heated debates about how water should be managed in the delta to protect threatened and endangered fish at a time when human-caused climate change is putting growing strains on water supplies and ecosystems.Chinook salmon populations have declined sharply in recent years. Environmental and fishing groups have also pointed to a recent increase in the deaths of threatened steelhead at pumps operated by state and federal managers.In a complaint that is being investigated by the federal Environmental Protection Agency, a group of Native tribes and environmental groups have accused the state water board of discriminatory practices and mismanagement contributing to the delta’s ecological deterioration.While the state water board considers alternatives for updating water quality standards and flow requirements throughout the delta watershed, the Newsom administration has promoted negotiated “voluntary agreements” — called Agreements to Support Healthy Rivers and Landscapes — in which water agencies pledge to forgo certain amounts of water while also funding projects to improve habitats for fish in the delta.Marcus, now a researcher at Stanford University, said in a recent report she co-wrote with other experts that while voluntary agreements can be beneficial, it’s also vital that the state have adequate regulatory requirements in place to ensure sufficient water for the environment.The court decision now gives the board “a great foundation on which to finish the job” by adopting and implementing standards throughout the delta and for other rivers that feed into it, Marcus said.Implementing the standards along the over-diverted tributaries of the San Joaquin River will mean roughly doubling the amount of water in the rivers for fish during certain times of year, and managing the dams with more precision to limit diversions and protect the ecosystem, she said.In theory, a voluntary agreement with water suppliers can be effective, as long as there are regulations in place, Marcus said. “But the agreement’s got to be good enough, which includes adding enough water to the system that the fish have a fighting chance.”Currently, state officials say that more than 80% of flows in the tributaries are regularly diverted in below-average or dry years. But at times, even more water has been diverted. And in some cases, little or no water has been left flowing. After a stretch of the Merced River ran dry during the severe drought in the summer and early fall of 2022, federal fisheries officials urged the state water board to investigate and take steps to prevent the dewatering of the river.Eric Oppenheimer, the board’s executive director, said in a January letter to the National Marine Fisheries Service that his agency’s staff have been investigating to “identify factors causing or contributing to the observed dry riverbed conditions,” which he said can include drought, river diversions and groundwater pumping. 1/2A section of the Merced River with water running through in June 2022. (California Department of Fish and Wildlife) 2/2A stretch of the Merced River was completely dry in September 2022. (California Department of Fish and Wildlife) He said it’s possible that “the full flow of the river could have been legally diverted when dry conditions were observed,” and that the board is weighing approaches to keep the Merced River flowing to its confluence with the San Joaquin year-round.The environmental group Friends of the River has called for the state water board to adopt permanent regulations to ensure the Merced River continues flowing during the dry season.The state water board has set a goal of keeping 40% of the total “unimpaired” flow in the three rivers from February through June. There isn’t a minimum in-stream flow requirement for lower stretches of the tributaries from July through January, but state officials say the new goal provides for supplementing flows during those months to avoid harmful conditions for fish.Implementing the standards will involve analyzing the water-rights seniority system and allocating reductions. Marcus said that will probably be yet another hard-fought battle, but she hopes the court decision “gives a little more leverage to the voices of action versus the voices of litigation and dissension.”Managers of water districts that had sued to challenge the state’s plan voiced support for the voluntary approach.“The lawsuit for us was really about having an open, fair and transparent process,” said Elizabeth Jonasson, a spokesperson for Westlands Water District. “And we believe there is a better way, which is working together, that provides better outcomes, and that’s why we’re supporting the voluntary agreements moving forward.”Officials at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, which supplies 2.7 million residents and thousands of businesses in the Bay Area, expressed disappointment and said they are reviewing the ruling.“This 2018 decision could significantly impact our water supply with rationing of up to 50% in extended droughts,” said Nancy Hayden Crowley, a spokesperson for the commission. She said the agency is focusing on the proposed Agreements to Support Healthy Rivers and Landscapes as “the best opportunity to balance California’s water resource needs and enhanced environmental stewardship of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta.”Mike Jensen, a spokesperson for the Merced Irrigation District, said the water that is at stake has supported the district’s community for more than a century. He called the state’s plan unfair and “unbalanced” and said the district “will continue to pursue any, and all, legal avenues to protect our disadvantaged communities and their access to water.” The Merced River flows through Yosemite National Park. Farther downstream, the river is dammed, forming Lake McClure and Lake McSwain. The river then continues across the San Joaquin Valley floor until it meets the San Joaquin River. (Los Angeles Times) San Francisco Baykeeper and other environmental groups had argued that the state’s plan for increasing river flows, while beneficial for fish, would fail to meet the board’s goals of doubling numbers of salmon and supporting viable fish populations.Jon Rosenfield, Baykeeper’s science director, noted that the judge didn’t disagree with this view, but determined that the board’s standards would “reasonably protect” fish.“We believe the board is required to develop a plan that is likely to actually attain the objectives it sets,” Rosenfield said.He said the current level of diversions has decimated fish populations and is unsustainable. The proposed voluntary agreements would provide much less water for the environment than required under the state board’s plan, Rosenfield said.With this court ruling, he said, the board “can now act to improve environmental conditions.”He said the decision also means that agricultural water districts and cities including San Francisco “can now be very certain that they must plan for a future where the water they divert from the San Joaquin and its tributaries will sometimes be limited.” Newsletter Toward a more sustainable California Get Boiling Point, our newsletter exploring climate change, energy and the environment, and become part of the conversation — and the solution. You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.

California regulators adopted a plan to keep more water in tributaries of the San Joaquin River to help struggling fish. A court has upheld that decision.

A court has upheld a key decision by California’s water board calling for reductions in water diversions from the San Joaquin River and its tributaries to help revive struggling fish populations.

In his ruling, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Stephen Acquisto rejected lawsuits by water districts serving farms and cities that would be required to take less water under the standards adopted by regulators. The judge also rejected challenges by environmental groups that had argued for requiring larger cutbacks to boost river flows.

The judge’s ruling, issued in a 162-page order last week, supports the State Water Resources Control Board’s 2018 adoption of a water quality plan for the lower San Joaquin River and its three major tributaries — the Tuolumne, Merced and Stanislaus rivers.

The water quality standards, which focus on a portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta watershed, set goals for increasing river flows to help populations of chinook salmon and steelhead trout, which have declined dramatically.

“The decision is significant because it reaffirms the board’s authority to exercise both water rights and water quality authority to protect native fishes, and to help restore flows that are necessary for native fish,” said Michael Lauffer, chief counsel for the state water board.

Aggressive and impactful reporting on climate change, the environment, health and science.

Agencies that had sought to challenge the state’s plan included large agricultural suppliers such as the Merced Irrigation District and Westlands Water District, as well as urban suppliers such as the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and the city of Modesto.

The decision provides legal backing for California’s water board to finalize rules requiring that more water be left in the Merced, Tuolumne and Stanislaus rivers for fish and the ecosystem. Environmental groups have argued that while more water in the rivers is urgently needed, the state’s plan doesn’t go far enough to protect salmon and other fish.

Currently, more than 80% of the rivers’ flows are diverted at times to supply farms and communities, leaving less than 20% of the natural flows in the rivers, Lauffer said. Once the standards are implemented, he said, the state board’s plan calls for limiting diversions during certain times of year to between 50% and 70% of total river flows — with the goal in the middle of that range.

A view of bodies of water amid rolling brown hills

State officials have for years been engaged in the complex process of developing updates to the water quality plan for San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. It took nine years of studies and deliberations before the state water board adopted the standards for the tributaries along the San Joaquin River.

State officials are considering options for updating standards for the Sacramento River and the rest of the delta watershed.

“These are incredibly challenging science, legal and policy issues,” Lauffer said. “This decision is important, though, because it shows that despite those challenges, when the board moves forward, carefully considers the science, carefully considers the overall legal framework, it can exercise its authority in a reasonable way to improve water flows and improve conditions so that we can reverse the precipitous decline of the delta.”

The judge noted in his ruling that the goals under the state-approved plan provide for increased flows downstream from dams on each of the tributaries to help protect fish populations.

“With more water being released into the tributaries and required to remain in the rivers to support the ecosystem for these fish populations, there will be less water available for diversion” to supply farms and cities, the judge wrote.

While most of the plaintiffs sued in 2019 to challenge the state standards for river flows, some water agencies in the delta also sought to challenge a provision governing salinity levels. And the federal government, which initiated its suit during the Trump administration, argued that the state board hadn’t complied with requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act.

The judge disagreed, rejecting a total of 12 lawsuits and 116 claims. The court ruled that the state water board complied with its obligations under state laws — one of which is the Porter-Cologne Act, the state’s water quality law.

Appeals are expected in the case, Lauffer said. “I think we all recognize that ultimately the courts of appeal or the California Supreme Court will resolve some of these issues.”

The state water board has yet to implement the water quality standards for the San Joaquin River. As an initial step, the board adopted biological goals last year that will guide the implementation effort, which will also determine how the reductions will affect each water user.

“Ultimately, as additional flows are left in the river for the benefit of fish and for the ecosystem, it will require belt tightening around the bay-delta watershed,” Lauffer said. “Unfortunately, the processes in California water quality and water rights law are not quick. We are still likely more than a year away from final actions that would see increases in the flows in these tributaries.”

Felicia Marcus, who oversaw the plan’s adoption in 2018 as chair of the state water board, said she is pleased the court supported the board’s decision and approach.

A powerboat travels through a body of water surrounded by trees

“As a lawyer, I felt pretty comfortable that we were on very solid ground,” Marcus said. “It’s just nice to have validation and vindication that what we did was well founded and correct.”

Marcus said that while providing even more water for fish would be good “if you had a magic wand,” the board and the agency’s staff carried out a fair and comprehensive process that weighed the science and struck a fair balance.

“The job of the board is to balance. And it’s always hard because balance is in the eye of the beholder,” Marcus said.

The board’s 2018 decision was contentious, meeting with strong opposition from managers of water districts. Lawsuits followed. In 2019, Marcus left office when Gov. Gavin Newsom declined to reappoint her.

The court ruling coincides with ongoing heated debates about how water should be managed in the delta to protect threatened and endangered fish at a time when human-caused climate change is putting growing strains on water supplies and ecosystems.

Chinook salmon populations have declined sharply in recent years. Environmental and fishing groups have also pointed to a recent increase in the deaths of threatened steelhead at pumps operated by state and federal managers.

In a complaint that is being investigated by the federal Environmental Protection Agency, a group of Native tribes and environmental groups have accused the state water board of discriminatory practices and mismanagement contributing to the delta’s ecological deterioration.

While the state water board considers alternatives for updating water quality standards and flow requirements throughout the delta watershed, the Newsom administration has promoted negotiated “voluntary agreements” — called Agreements to Support Healthy Rivers and Landscapes — in which water agencies pledge to forgo certain amounts of water while also funding projects to improve habitats for fish in the delta.

Marcus, now a researcher at Stanford University, said in a recent report she co-wrote with other experts that while voluntary agreements can be beneficial, it’s also vital that the state have adequate regulatory requirements in place to ensure sufficient water for the environment.

The court decision now gives the board “a great foundation on which to finish the job” by adopting and implementing standards throughout the delta and for other rivers that feed into it, Marcus said.

Implementing the standards along the over-diverted tributaries of the San Joaquin River will mean roughly doubling the amount of water in the rivers for fish during certain times of year, and managing the dams with more precision to limit diversions and protect the ecosystem, she said.

In theory, a voluntary agreement with water suppliers can be effective, as long as there are regulations in place, Marcus said. “But the agreement’s got to be good enough, which includes adding enough water to the system that the fish have a fighting chance.”

Currently, state officials say that more than 80% of flows in the tributaries are regularly diverted in below-average or dry years. But at times, even more water has been diverted. And in some cases, little or no water has been left flowing.

After a stretch of the Merced River ran dry during the severe drought in the summer and early fall of 2022, federal fisheries officials urged the state water board to investigate and take steps to prevent the dewatering of the river.

Eric Oppenheimer, the board’s executive director, said in a January letter to the National Marine Fisheries Service that his agency’s staff have been investigating to “identify factors causing or contributing to the observed dry riverbed conditions,” which he said can include drought, river diversions and groundwater pumping.

1/2

A section of the Merced River with water running through in June 2022. (California Department of Fish and Wildlife)

2/2

A stretch of the Merced River was completely dry in September 2022. (California Department of Fish and Wildlife)

He said it’s possible that “the full flow of the river could have been legally diverted when dry conditions were observed,” and that the board is weighing approaches to keep the Merced River flowing to its confluence with the San Joaquin year-round.

The environmental group Friends of the River has called for the state water board to adopt permanent regulations to ensure the Merced River continues flowing during the dry season.

The state water board has set a goal of keeping 40% of the total “unimpaired” flow in the three rivers from February through June. There isn’t a minimum in-stream flow requirement for lower stretches of the tributaries from July through January, but state officials say the new goal provides for supplementing flows during those months to avoid harmful conditions for fish.

Implementing the standards will involve analyzing the water-rights seniority system and allocating reductions. Marcus said that will probably be yet another hard-fought battle, but she hopes the court decision “gives a little more leverage to the voices of action versus the voices of litigation and dissension.”

Managers of water districts that had sued to challenge the state’s plan voiced support for the voluntary approach.

“The lawsuit for us was really about having an open, fair and transparent process,” said Elizabeth Jonasson, a spokesperson for Westlands Water District. “And we believe there is a better way, which is working together, that provides better outcomes, and that’s why we’re supporting the voluntary agreements moving forward.”

Officials at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, which supplies 2.7 million residents and thousands of businesses in the Bay Area, expressed disappointment and said they are reviewing the ruling.

“This 2018 decision could significantly impact our water supply with rationing of up to 50% in extended droughts,” said Nancy Hayden Crowley, a spokesperson for the commission. She said the agency is focusing on the proposed Agreements to Support Healthy Rivers and Landscapes as “the best opportunity to balance California’s water resource needs and enhanced environmental stewardship of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta.”

Mike Jensen, a spokesperson for the Merced Irrigation District, said the water that is at stake has supported the district’s community for more than a century. He called the state’s plan unfair and “unbalanced” and said the district “will continue to pursue any, and all, legal avenues to protect our disadvantaged communities and their access to water.”

Water flowing, seen in blues and yellows

San Francisco Baykeeper and other environmental groups had argued that the state’s plan for increasing river flows, while beneficial for fish, would fail to meet the board’s goals of doubling numbers of salmon and supporting viable fish populations.

Jon Rosenfield, Baykeeper’s science director, noted that the judge didn’t disagree with this view, but determined that the board’s standards would “reasonably protect” fish.

“We believe the board is required to develop a plan that is likely to actually attain the objectives it sets,” Rosenfield said.

He said the current level of diversions has decimated fish populations and is unsustainable. The proposed voluntary agreements would provide much less water for the environment than required under the state board’s plan, Rosenfield said.

With this court ruling, he said, the board “can now act to improve environmental conditions.”

He said the decision also means that agricultural water districts and cities including San Francisco “can now be very certain that they must plan for a future where the water they divert from the San Joaquin and its tributaries will sometimes be limited.”

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Iran’s Capital Must Relocate Due to Dire Water Situation, President Insists

This story was originally published by Vox and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. Tehran is running out of water. Rationing has begun in Iran’s capital city, with some of the approximately 10 million residents experiencing “nightly pressure cuts” between midnight and 5 am. The entire country is in an unprecedented drought, facing its driest—and hottest—autumn in nearly 60 years. Tehran has received no rain at all since the start of September, and no rainfall is expected for the foreseeable future. The city depends on five major reservoirs for its water supply. One has dried up completely, with another below 8 percent capacity. The managing director of the Tehran Regional Water Authority told state media last week that the Karaj Dam has only two weeks of drinking water left. The drought extends beyond the city, too. The water reserves of Mashhad, the second largest city in the country, have dropped below 3 percent capacity, putting 4 million people at imminent risk. But if nothing changes, Tehran may soon face Day Zero—or when a municipality can no longer supply drinking water to its residents and taps run dry. In October, President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed that Tehran could no longer serve as the country’s capital, citing the water crisis as a major factor. ”If it doesn’t rain in Tehran by late November, we’ll have to [formally] ration water,” Pezeshkian told Iranian state media on Thursday. “And if it still doesn’t rain, we’ll have to evacuate Tehran.” (Update: On Thursday, Pezeshkian president again said the capital will need be moved.) While it’s unlikely evacuation will happen any time soon, Tehran’s water crisis is not made equal. When the taps run dry, more affluent Tehranis purchase mineral water or rely on water tankers, a prohibitively expensive option for many. The rest must rely on charity, or they will die of thirst. Water use in Tehran is quite high, even for cities. But Iran’s water problems go deeper than this record-breaking drought. The country is uniquely isolated and subject to numerous sanctions, crippling the economy and making it very difficult for Iran to obtain state-of-the-art water technologies. It’s an enemy state to many of its neighbors, as well as regional leaders in desalination technology—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. But desalination is largely irrelevant in an Iranian context, often coming at a high environmental cost. According to water issues analyst Nik Kowser, Iranians are under the thumb of a “water mafia”—a shadowy and well-connected network driving these megaprojects for their own gain. “Iran faces water bankruptcy, with demand far outstripping supply,” Kowsar wrote in Time. “The collapse of water security in Iran has been decades in the making and is rooted in a mania for megaprojects—dam building, deep wells, and water transfer schemes—that ignored the fundamentals of hydrology and ecological balance.” Trying to relocate 10 million people would be an incredible logistical challenge. Iran is also particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: Over 82 percent of the country is arid or semi-arid, and Iran is sixth on the list of countries most prone to natural disasters. The country grows thirsty crops, and its quest for food security and self-sufficiency is a tremendous driver of its water bankruptcy. The agricultural sector comprises up to 90 percent of the country’s total water withdrawals. But Iran’s environmental crisis does strain existing geopolitical tensions both inside and outside of the country. Water is sometimes transported from one region of the country to supply another, driving fears that certain ethnic populations are intentionally being deprived at the expense of others. Yale University historian and Iran expert Arash Azizi, who is also a contributing writer for The Atlantic, told me that despite the tremendous humanitarian cost of continued sanctions, they are very unlikely to be removed in response to the water crisis. Tehran joins many, many other cities that have approached Day Zero, and it certainly will not be the last. São Paulo in Brazil and Cape Town, South Africa, had similar crises that ended with rainfall. Tehran might not be so lucky in terms of its weather forecast, though. So, let’s loop back to the idea of evacuating Tehran. It is, of course, incredibly unpopular. Iranians balked at the idea when the president mentioned the possibility. Former Tehran Mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi said this was “a joke…Evacuating Tehran makes no sense at all.”Azizi thinks it’s unlikely that Iran will end up moving its capital anytime soon. The majority of jobs are in Tehran. And evacuating a city of upward of 10 million people would be an incredible logistical challenge. More importantly, relocation won’t fix the immediate issue of water access. But the current strategy of trucking in supplies, rationing water, and praying for rain is woefully inadequate to meet the moment. And water rationing is a stopgap measure. “Actually cutting off the supply to households or to individual neighborhoods de facto reduces their consumption,” said David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But the underlying demand is still there.” However, there are other kinds of strategies cities like Tehran could employ. Michel argued that cities have to prioritize business models that provide the resources and revenues needed for water systems to operate, maintain, and expand to serve new customers. “That challenge has put many city water systems around the world into this very challenging spiral where lots of municipal water systems’ revenues don’t cover the costs of operations and maintenance, much less expanding supply,” Michel said. Economic incentives like volumetric tariffs, where the cost of water is proportional to the amount consumed, could be beneficial. The more you use, the higher price you pay, essentially, with the hope of reducing pressure on the poorest consumers. Relief can’t come to Tehran soon enough. American cities in California and the southwest, with similarly arid climates and dwindling water supplies, should take heed. And everyone should pay attention when the president of Iran says the residents of its capital city may have to evacuate in a few months’ time. “You can imagine the psychological effect,” Azizi said. And that could be “the future of everywhere in the world.” This story was updated to reflect the Iranian president’s latest announcement.

Water

Climate

Crisis

Dramatic Surge in Water Demand Predicted by 2040 Puts Ohio Farmers and Industry on Collision Course

A report on the future of water in central Ohio warns that industrial demands for water will skyrocket at the same time experts expect farmers will need to regularly irrigate their fields

Deep inside a report on the future of water in central Ohio is this warning: Industrial demands for water will skyrocket at the same time experts expect farmers will need to regularly irrigate their fields during the critical growing period of July through September.The competing demands of agriculture and industry – particularly the 130 data centers in central Ohio already consuming millions of gallons of water a day to cool computer equipment – would require billions of gallons of water daily, according to a 15-county Central Ohio Regional Water Study released this year by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.Industrial demand alone is estimated to increase across the 15-county region by approximately 120% between 2021 to 2050 – to 250 million gallons a day by 2050. Agricultural demands could reach an estimated 110 million gallons a day across the region by 2040 during the growing season.Some of the additional billions of gallons needed in the coming decades would come from surface sources such as rivers and lakes.But the study says virtually all of the water needed for agricultural irrigation would be pumped from groundwater sources – an additional 9.15 billion gallons a year across the 15-county region. That’s enough water to fill nearly 14,000 Olympic swimming pools. And all of that groundwater would come from the same aquifers depended upon by municipalities and rural owners of private wells for drinking water.Of growing concern for some who pay close attention to water demands in Ohio – especially as it continues to invite water-guzzling data centers to the “Silicon Heartland” – is that there are few regulations to manage the extraction of one of the state’s most valuable resources.“Water regulation is kind of the ‘Wild West’ in Ohio,” said Jim Roberts, executive director of the Licking Regional Water District, which is expanding to meet demands for water and sewer service in fast-growing western Licking County. “Sewage treatment is a lot more regulated.”And Glenn Marzluf, general manager and CEO of Del-Co Water Company in Delaware County – a nonprofit cooperative currently looking for a water source in northern Licking County – put it this way:“Ohio water laws are pretty simple: You own the land, you own the water,” Marzluf said after a town hall meeting in Utica, where he bluntly told folks that if his company decides to develop a “utility-scale” well field there that could draw up to 6 million gallons of water a day, area residents “would have little say in the matter.”Most Ohio farmers have never found it necessary to water their crops and pastures. In fact, across most of Ohio, farmers have done the opposite for more than two centuries since white settlers moved in and started digging ditches and burying field tile to drain wetlands to plow and plant in them.“We’re one of only three states in the U.S. that has dryland farming, which means we farm without irrigation,” said Bryn Bird, a Licking County resident and president of Ohio Farmers Union, which represents more than 2,500 family farms.“We can grow with what God gave us,” said Bird, who is also a produce farmer and Granville Township trustee in Licking County, where the growing number of data centers already are driving up demand for water. “It’s a massive benefit to us and to crop yields. Even if you irrigate, you don’t have the same yields.”But the report released earlier this summer by the Ohio EPA, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and the Ohio Water Development Authority, with assistance from the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission and the Hazen and Sawyer consulting firm of New York, says that the changing climate in Ohio will drive an unprecedented demand by central Ohio farmers for surface and groundwater. Licking County farmers, for example, will need an estimated equivalent of 5 inches of rainwater a year for irrigation during the growing season, says the Central Ohio Regional Water Study. That’s more than a month’s worth of rain, based on the average monthly rainfall of about 3 inches.The state’s study was released in June – just before Ohio experienced its third drought in three years – and the last two were severe, including the driest August on record in Ohio in 2025.At the same time the agricultural needs are expected to spike, the industrial demand for water – especially by data centers, computer-chip makers and other tech companies – is expected to skyrocket from an insignificant amount in 2020 to more than 40 million gallons a day by 2030 – then up to about 70 million gallons a day by 2040 and as much as 90 million gallons a day by 2050.For context, the City of Columbus delivers more than 140 million gallons of water a day from its three water treatment plants to 1.25 million people and its industrial customers. A fourth treatment plant is under construction now at a cost of $1.6 billion to meet anticipated future demands.So in a state where there are few regulations to manage water resources, especially extraction from underground sources, those who need water and see what’s coming are rushing to stake their claims.That includes Del-Co and Licking Regional Water District in Licking County.While Del-Co is looking for water to the north near Utica, the Licking Regional Water District is looking for a well site near Hebron in southern Licking County. Roberts has said that the utility serving western and southern Licking County also has plans for a water treatment facility in St. Albans Township, south of Alexandria and west of Granville.He said the utility doesn’t plan to drill for water on the nearly 100 acres it owns near Rt. 161/37 and Outville Road, but it would be interested in a partnership with the City of New Albany and the New Albany Company, which owns 106 acres nearby. The City of New Albany and Village of Granville are currently conducting tests on that land to determine how much water could be pumped from wells there – and how any future pumping might affect Granville’s wells, which draw from the same aquifer.Bird grew up in arid Colorado singing songs as a child about turning off the water while washing her hands. With that perspective, Ohio’s willingness to turn over fertile farmland to industry – combined with its lack of both regulation of water resources and delineation of water rights to protect those resources – is shocking.“We are literally taking the nation’s breadbasket, where it’s most productive, most advantageous to farm, and turning it over for industrial use,” she said, adding that the protection of water should be a priority issue for the state legislature and the candidates for governor in next year’s election.Bird said the state’s water report does nothing to manage or protect a life-giving resource as important to human existence as oxygen. Bird fears that the water study serves mainly as a divining rod for those who are looking for water. Intentional or not, Bird said, “that report was written to tell all of the companies where to go. The report reads like, ‘This is where the water is, so go get it,’ rather than these are the areas that need to be protected.”She said she has talked about the need to protect Ohio’s water supply with campaign staffers for Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, two of the declared candidates for governor in the 2026 election.And Bird said she has told anyone who will listen that Ohio is “just letting our water get sold.” ‘You have no idea what you have’ The Central Ohio Regional Water Study came after state officials promised Intel that if it built its proposed $28 billion computer-chip manufacturing campus in the New Albany International Business Park – in Licking County – state and local agencies would find the 6 million gallons or more a day it would need for its industrial process.So far, the City of Columbus has committed to meeting Intel’s anticipated water needs when the company begins producing computer chips in 2030 or after.The introduction to the study says that its “goal was to assess current and future water resource availability and demands in a 15-county area. This assessment allows the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) and Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) to understand the need for water supply and infrastructure investments to support public and environmental health under changing conditions.”Bird said she works with farm groups in arid states such as California, the Dakotas and Oklahoma, and they look at Ohioans “like you’re insane – like you have no idea what you have there.”Managing the use of groundwater, she said, is all about the rate at which the underground aquifer recharges. These underground water reservoirs are replenished in part with surface water that percolates a few hundred feet or more down through topsoil, sand and gravel.Pumping water out faster than the aquifer can recharge can draw down the aquifer and dry up neighboring wells.“Oklahoma had one of the largest aquifers in the country at one time, and now they don’t,” Bird said, referring to the Ogallala Aquifer that stretches across several Plains states. “Because they overused it.”Some Ohioans believe we’ll never run out of water, said Kristy Hawthorne, executive director of the Licking County Soil & Water Conservation District. “We have to be able to have a conversation about this,” she said. “We need to bring people to the middle to ask: What if it does happen?”Licking County has been notably water rich, she said, but Ohioans need to talk about “the what-ifs” regarding the rapidly increasing demand for water, and the positive impact of water re-use and environmental restoration.“This discussion about water re-use is helping,” Hawthorne said. “It will help manage that water for potable use and industrial water, re-using that industrial water as much as possible.”And she said the wide-ranging H2Ohio program initiated by Gov. Mike DeWine in 2019 has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into projects across the state to help improve water quality and access to clean water by promoting best practices by farmers, building wetlands, replacing aging water lines and installing water treatment systems where there were none.Initially funded at $172 million in the 2020-21 state budget, the program grew to $270 million in the 2024-25 budget and was cut by nearly 40% to $165 million in the 2026-27 budget.“It has opened up conversations in the ag community and in working with local governments and soil & water conservation offices,” Hawthorne said. “It has broadened the conversation across all water users.”It will take a sustained conversation – and action – to protect Ohio’s water resources, she said.“Water is not an infinite resource,” Hawthorne said. “There is a finite amount of water, and we need to protect what we have because we can’t make any more.”Ohio has plenty of water, says State Climatologist of Ohio Aaron Wilson, but changing weather patterns mean that more of it is coming in the spring and less in the summer.“This year was a great example – a snapshot of the trend,” he said. “We had our eighth wettest April on record and our driest August on record.”For example, he said that Pickaway County, south of Columbus, saw 32 inches of rain in April, May and June – an average of more than 10 inches per month – and then had the driest August ever. “That’s incredible oscillation,” Wilson said. Historically, rain fell more evenly on Ohio throughout the year, with some months drier than others but without the wild swings from heavy rains just as planting season begins – making it challenging for farmers to get into the fields to plow and plant crops – to extremely dry periods when growing crops need rain most.“With these rapid oscillations,” Wilson said, “if you have irrigation, you can ensure that rain-fed crops will do well in those dry periods.”Irrigating farm fields, in many cases, would mean drilling wells, installing big pumps and investing in giant sprinklers, which roll across fields or slowly pivot around a point to water a big circle of land. Anyone who has flown over or driven by farms in arid states – as close to Ohio as Indiana – has seen the crop circles and the big sprinkler pipes that move on big wheels.But all of that would bring an added expense for Ohio farmers, most of whom have never needed such equipment in the past, said Dean Kreager, educator for agriculture and natural resources at the Ohio State University Agricultural Extension Service Licking County office in Newark.“It’s going to create some changes, for sure,” he said. “Crop prices would have to go up to offset the increase in costs.” And those increased costs might prompt some farmers to rethink what they grow and how they grow it.Jordan Hoewischer, director of water quality and research for the Ohio Farm Bureau, said there has been some farm irrigation in Ohio, “but the quantity of water is becoming more and more a factor.”’With the convergence of increased demand by industry and agriculture, he said, “there has to be some discussion about water re-use: How do we get nonpotable, gray water into the industrial process?”Hoewischer also said that the agriculture community could look at how farmers might use the drainage tiles that remove water from their fields during the wet springs to pump water back into the fields when needed.“We have a system underground already with drainage that potentially could be used to irrigate crops,” he said.Based on current trends, agriculture could become one of the largest users of water in Ohio by mid-century, “because we have millions of acres in agriculture,” said Vinayak Shedekar, an assistant professor of agricultural water management in Ohio State University’s Department of Food, Agricultural and Biological Engineering.Despite the growth of technology companies and other industries on former Ohio farmland, agriculture and food production combined remain the state’s biggest industry.“If every year starts looking like the last two in Ohio, where does that put us?” Shedekar asked. “It’s going to rain too much when we don’t need water – more intense and more of it – and then when the farmer turns his attention to summer and fall, we’re going to be drier and warmer.”He is the Ohio State professor who provided the prediction for the state’s water study that farmers would need to start irrigating fields by mid-century. His calculations indicate that rain in the growing season “is not going to go down to zero, but it’s going to look more like what we saw in 2024 and 2025 – and warmer. And if we have a 4-to-5-degree higher temperature, we’ll have more evaporation.“And that is why I am worried about the sustainability of grain crops in Ohio,” said Shedekar, who serves as the director of Ohio State’s International Program for Water Management in Agriculture and the Overholt Drainage Education and Research Program. “We have been on the borderline for sustainability.”Go to Nebraska or North Carolina, he said, and it would be hard to find corn or soybeans without irrigation. “They have soils that cannot hold a lot of moisture for a long time, and they tend to get really hot,” he said. “Or go to Washington and other western states. You cannot grow crops without irrigation. Well, you can grow crops, but it won’t be profitable.”In Ohio, the majority of crops have been rain-fed, he said, and that’s with a water deficit of 3-4 inches, compared to 9 or so inches in the West.But the predicted rising temperatures and reduced rainfall during the growing season is a bad combination for farmers, he said.“If you have a million acres you want to irrigate to about an inch, it’s a large amount of water because it’s such a large area, and that is the challenge,” Shedekar said. “We’re not saying we’re going to run out of water like the western states, but between June and October, central Ohio might be experiencing seasonal drought and seeing wells go dry because of irrigation demands.“That’s what I’m worried about – that by 2040, in the next two to three decades – that agriculture is going to rise up as a sector that needs water to survive,” he said about the dry growing season. “Because if we want to maintain yields, we will have to rely on irrigation.”The good news, he said, is that more people are starting to talk about the issue. “As a result, we could see more people pushing for more concrete steps toward water management,” he said.At the moment, he said, very little is being done to manage the use of Ohio’s water resources.“What is the state doing to regulate this? Very minimal in terms of surface and groundwater management,” he said.“We have enough water in our community retention ponds to water our lawns in Delaware County, but instead, we use Del-Co’s beautiful water – purified for drinking – on our lawns. Why? We should be using water from those ponds.“There are solutions like that, and some of them will have to be voluntary, because the government isn’t going to ask you to do it,” he said.And some companies moving to Ohio are coming from water-scarce states, “and they are thinking about their water footprint,” he said. “They are strategically investing in projects that retain water in the watershed where they are using water.”That includes projects such as investing in building or restoring wetlands, he said. Building a wetland of 200 to 300 acres, he said, is enough to have an impact.“We are optimistic when it comes to water conservation,” he said. “Any conservation is good conservation. I like that there is some initiative being taken by these companies. Could it be more strategic? Absolutely.”And maybe, he said, state and local government officials could do more to negotiate such things with the companies they recruit to Ohio. “As a state, we could be more strategic,” he said.This story was originally published by The Reporting Project and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Nov. 2025

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