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Silicon Valley’s ‘Audacity Crisis’

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Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Two years ago, OpenAI released the public beta of DALL-E 2, an image-generation tool that immediately signified that we’d entered a new technological era. Trained off a huge body of data, DALL-E 2 produced unsettlingly good, delightful, and frequently unexpected outputs; my Twitter feed filled up with images derived from prompts such as close-up photo of brushing teeth with toothbrush covered with nacho cheese. Suddenly, it seemed as though machines could create just about anything in response to simple prompts.You likely know the story from there: A few months later, ChatGPT arrived, millions of people started using it, the student essay was pronounced dead, Web3 entrepreneurs nearly broke their ankles scrambling to pivot their companies to AI, and the technology industry was consumed by hype. The generative-AI revolution began in earnest.Where has it gotten us? Although enthusiasts eagerly use the technology to boost productivity and automate busywork, the drawbacks are also impossible to ignore. Social networks such as Facebook have been flooded with bizarre AI-generated slop images; search engines are floundering, trying to index an internet awash in hastily assembled, chatbot-written articles. Generative AI, we know for sure now, has been trained without permission on copyrighted media, which makes it all the more galling that the technology is competing against creative people for jobs and online attention; a backlash against AI companies scraping the internet for training data is in full swing.Yet these companies, emboldened by the success of their products and war chests of investor capital, have brushed these problems aside and unapologetically embraced a manifest-destiny attitude toward their technologies. Some of these firms are, in no uncertain terms, trying to rewrite the rules of society by doing whatever they can to create a godlike superintelligence (also known as artificial general intelligence, or AGI). Others seem more interested in using generative AI to build tools that repurpose others’ creative work with little to no citation. In recent months, leaders within the AI industry are more brazenly expressing a paternalistic attitude about how the future will look—including who will win (those who embrace their technology) and who will be left behind (those who do not). They’re not asking us; they’re telling us. As the journalist Joss Fong commented recently, “There’s an audacity crisis happening in California.”There are material concerns to contend with here. It is audacious to massively jeopardize your net-zero climate commitment in favor of advancing a technology that has told people to eat rocks, yet Google appears to have done just that, according to its latest environmental report. (In an emailed statement, a Google spokesperson, Corina Standiford, said that the company remains “dedicated to the sustainability goals we’ve set,” including reaching net-zero emissions by 2030. According to the report, its emissions grew 13 percent in 2023, in large part because of the energy demands of generative AI.) And it is certainly audacious for companies such as Perplexity to use third-party tools to harvest information while ignoring long-standing online protocols that prevent websites from being scraped and having their content stolen.But I’ve found the rhetoric from AI leaders to be especially exasperating. This month, I spoke with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Thrive Global CEO Arianna Huffington after they announced their intention to build an AI health coach. The pair explicitly compared their nonexistent product to the New Deal. (They suggested that their product—so theoretical, they could not tell me whether it would be an app or not—could quickly become part of the health-care system’s critical infrastructure.) But this audacity is about more than just grandiose press releases. In an interview at Dartmouth College last month, OpenAI’s chief technology officer, Mira Murati, discussed AI’s effects on labor, saying that, as a result of generative AI, “some creative jobs maybe will go away, but maybe they shouldn’t have been there in the first place.” She added later that “strictly repetitive” jobs are also likely on the chopping block. Her candor appears emblematic of OpenAI’s very mission, which straightforwardly seeks to develop an intelligence capable of “turbocharging the global economy.” Jobs that can be replaced, her words suggested, aren’t just unworthy: They should never have existed. In the long arc of technological change, this may be true—human operators of elevators, traffic signals, and telephones eventually gave way to automation—but that doesn’t mean that catastrophic job loss across several industries simultaneously is economically or morally acceptable.[Read: AI has become a technology of faith]Along these lines, Altman has said that generative AI will “create entirely new jobs.” Other tech boosters have said the same. But if you listen closely, their language is cold and unsettling, offering insight into the kinds of labor that these people value—and, by extension, the kinds that they don’t. Altman has spoken of AGI possibly replacing the “the median human” worker’s labor—giving the impression that the least exceptional among us might be sacrificed in the name of progress.Even some inside the industry have expressed alarm at those in charge of this technology’s future. Last month, Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI employee, wrote a 165-page essay series warning readers about what’s being built in San Francisco. “Few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them,” Aschenbrenner, who was reportedly fired this year for leaking company information, wrote. In Aschenbrenner’s reckoning, he and “perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs,” have the “situational awareness” to anticipate the future, which will be marked by the arrival of AGI, geopolitical struggle, and radical cultural and economic change.Aschenbrenner’s manifesto is a useful document in that it articulates how the architects of this technology see themselves: a small group of people bound together by their intellect, skill sets, and fate to help decide the shape of the future. Yet to read his treatise is to feel not FOMO, but alienation. The civilizational struggle he depicts bears little resemblance to the AI that the rest of us can see. “The fate of the world rests on these people,” he writes of the Silicon Valley cohort building AI systems. This is not a call to action or a proposal for input; it’s a statement of who is in charge.Unlike me, Aschenbrenner believes that a superintelligence is coming, and coming soon. His treatise contains quite a bit of grand speculation about the potential for AI models to drastically improve from here. (Skeptics have strongly pushed back on this assessment.) But his primary concern is that too few people wield too much power. “I don’t think it can just be a small clique building this technology,” he told me recently when I asked why he wrote the treatise.“I felt a sense of responsibility, by having ended up a part of this group, to tell people what they’re thinking,” he said, referring to the leaders at AI companies who believe they’re on the cusp of achieving AGI. “And again, they might be right or they might be wrong, but people deserve to hear it.” In our conversation, I found an unexpected overlap between us: Whether you believe that AI executives are delusional or genuinely on the verge of constructing a superintelligence, you should be concerned about how much power they’ve amassed.Having a class of builders with deep ambitions is part of a healthy, progressive society. Great technologists are, by nature, imbued with an audacious spirit to push the bounds of what is possible—and that can be a very good thing for humanity indeed. None of this is to say that the technology is useless: AI undoubtedly has transformative potential (predicting how proteins fold is a genuine revelation, for example). But audacity can quickly turn into a liability when builders become untethered from reality, or when their hubris leads them to believe that it is their right to impose their values on the rest of us, in return for building God.[Read: This is what it looks like when AI eats the world]An industry is what it produces, and in 2024, these executive pronouncements and brazen actions, taken together, are the actual state of the artificial-intelligence industry two years into its latest revolution. The apocalyptic visions, the looming nature of superintelligence, and the struggle for the future of humanity—all of these narratives are not facts but hypotheticals, however exciting, scary, or plausible.When you strip all of that away and focus on what’s really there and what’s really being said, the message is clear: These companies wish to be left alone to “scale in peace,” a phrase that SSI, a new AI company co-founded by Ilya Sutskever, formerly OpenAI’s chief scientist, used with no trace of self-awareness in announcing his company’s mission. (“SSI” stands for “safe superintelligence,” of course.) To do that, they’ll need to commandeer all creative resources—to eminent-domain the entire internet. The stakes demand it. We’re to trust that they will build these tools safely, implement them responsibly, and share the wealth of their creations. We’re to trust their values—about the labor that’s valuable and the creative pursuits that ought to exist—as they remake the world in their image. We’re to trust them because they are smart. We’re to trust them as they achieve global scale with a technology that they say will be among the most disruptive in all of human history. Because they have seen the future, and because history has delivered them to this societal hinge point, marrying ambition and talent with just enough raw computing power to create God. To deny them this right is reckless, but also futile.It’s possible, then, that generative AI’s chief export is not image slop, voice clones, or lorem ipsum chatbot bullshit but instead unearned, entitled audacity. Yet another example of AI producing hallucinations—not in the machines, but in the people who build them.

AI executives are acting like they own the world.

Two years ago, OpenAI released the public beta of DALL-E 2, an image-generation tool that immediately signified that we’d entered a new technological era. Trained off a huge body of data, DALL-E 2 produced unsettlingly good, delightful, and frequently unexpected outputs; my Twitter feed filled up with images derived from prompts such as close-up photo of brushing teeth with toothbrush covered with nacho cheese. Suddenly, it seemed as though machines could create just about anything in response to simple prompts.

You likely know the story from there: A few months later, ChatGPT arrived, millions of people started using it, the student essay was pronounced dead, Web3 entrepreneurs nearly broke their ankles scrambling to pivot their companies to AI, and the technology industry was consumed by hype. The generative-AI revolution began in earnest.

Where has it gotten us? Although enthusiasts eagerly use the technology to boost productivity and automate busywork, the drawbacks are also impossible to ignore. Social networks such as Facebook have been flooded with bizarre AI-generated slop images; search engines are floundering, trying to index an internet awash in hastily assembled, chatbot-written articles. Generative AI, we know for sure now, has been trained without permission on copyrighted media, which makes it all the more galling that the technology is competing against creative people for jobs and online attention; a backlash against AI companies scraping the internet for training data is in full swing.

Yet these companies, emboldened by the success of their products and war chests of investor capital, have brushed these problems aside and unapologetically embraced a manifest-destiny attitude toward their technologies. Some of these firms are, in no uncertain terms, trying to rewrite the rules of society by doing whatever they can to create a godlike superintelligence (also known as artificial general intelligence, or AGI). Others seem more interested in using generative AI to build tools that repurpose others’ creative work with little to no citation. In recent months, leaders within the AI industry are more brazenly expressing a paternalistic attitude about how the future will look—including who will win (those who embrace their technology) and who will be left behind (those who do not). They’re not asking us; they’re telling us. As the journalist Joss Fong commented recently, “There’s an audacity crisis happening in California.”

There are material concerns to contend with here. It is audacious to massively jeopardize your net-zero climate commitment in favor of advancing a technology that has told people to eat rocks, yet Google appears to have done just that, according to its latest environmental report. (In an emailed statement, a Google spokesperson, Corina Standiford, said that the company remains “dedicated to the sustainability goals we’ve set,” including reaching net-zero emissions by 2030. According to the report, its emissions grew 13 percent in 2023, in large part because of the energy demands of generative AI.) And it is certainly audacious for companies such as Perplexity to use third-party tools to harvest information while ignoring long-standing online protocols that prevent websites from being scraped and having their content stolen.

But I’ve found the rhetoric from AI leaders to be especially exasperating. This month, I spoke with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Thrive Global CEO Arianna Huffington after they announced their intention to build an AI health coach. The pair explicitly compared their nonexistent product to the New Deal. (They suggested that their product—so theoretical, they could not tell me whether it would be an app or not—could quickly become part of the health-care system’s critical infrastructure.) But this audacity is about more than just grandiose press releases. In an interview at Dartmouth College last month, OpenAI’s chief technology officer, Mira Murati, discussed AI’s effects on labor, saying that, as a result of generative AI, “some creative jobs maybe will go away, but maybe they shouldn’t have been there in the first place.” She added later that “strictly repetitive” jobs are also likely on the chopping block. Her candor appears emblematic of OpenAI’s very mission, which straightforwardly seeks to develop an intelligence capable of “turbocharging the global economy.” Jobs that can be replaced, her words suggested, aren’t just unworthy: They should never have existed. In the long arc of technological change, this may be true—human operators of elevators, traffic signals, and telephones eventually gave way to automation—but that doesn’t mean that catastrophic job loss across several industries simultaneously is economically or morally acceptable.

[Read: AI has become a technology of faith]

Along these lines, Altman has said that generative AI will “create entirely new jobs.” Other tech boosters have said the same. But if you listen closely, their language is cold and unsettling, offering insight into the kinds of labor that these people value—and, by extension, the kinds that they don’t. Altman has spoken of AGI possibly replacing the “the median human” worker’s labor—giving the impression that the least exceptional among us might be sacrificed in the name of progress.

Even some inside the industry have expressed alarm at those in charge of this technology’s future. Last month, Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI employee, wrote a 165-page essay series warning readers about what’s being built in San Francisco. “Few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them,” Aschenbrenner, who was reportedly fired this year for leaking company information, wrote. In Aschenbrenner’s reckoning, he and “perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs,” have the “situational awareness” to anticipate the future, which will be marked by the arrival of AGI, geopolitical struggle, and radical cultural and economic change.

Aschenbrenner’s manifesto is a useful document in that it articulates how the architects of this technology see themselves: a small group of people bound together by their intellect, skill sets, and fate to help decide the shape of the future. Yet to read his treatise is to feel not FOMO, but alienation. The civilizational struggle he depicts bears little resemblance to the AI that the rest of us can see. “The fate of the world rests on these people,” he writes of the Silicon Valley cohort building AI systems. This is not a call to action or a proposal for input; it’s a statement of who is in charge.

Unlike me, Aschenbrenner believes that a superintelligence is coming, and coming soon. His treatise contains quite a bit of grand speculation about the potential for AI models to drastically improve from here. (Skeptics have strongly pushed back on this assessment.) But his primary concern is that too few people wield too much power. “I don’t think it can just be a small clique building this technology,” he told me recently when I asked why he wrote the treatise.

“I felt a sense of responsibility, by having ended up a part of this group, to tell people what they’re thinking,” he said, referring to the leaders at AI companies who believe they’re on the cusp of achieving AGI. “And again, they might be right or they might be wrong, but people deserve to hear it.” In our conversation, I found an unexpected overlap between us: Whether you believe that AI executives are delusional or genuinely on the verge of constructing a superintelligence, you should be concerned about how much power they’ve amassed.

Having a class of builders with deep ambitions is part of a healthy, progressive society. Great technologists are, by nature, imbued with an audacious spirit to push the bounds of what is possible—and that can be a very good thing for humanity indeed. None of this is to say that the technology is useless: AI undoubtedly has transformative potential (predicting how proteins fold is a genuine revelation, for example). But audacity can quickly turn into a liability when builders become untethered from reality, or when their hubris leads them to believe that it is their right to impose their values on the rest of us, in return for building God.

[Read: This is what it looks like when AI eats the world]

An industry is what it produces, and in 2024, these executive pronouncements and brazen actions, taken together, are the actual state of the artificial-intelligence industry two years into its latest revolution. The apocalyptic visions, the looming nature of superintelligence, and the struggle for the future of humanity—all of these narratives are not facts but hypotheticals, however exciting, scary, or plausible.

When you strip all of that away and focus on what’s really there and what’s really being said, the message is clear: These companies wish to be left alone to “scale in peace,” a phrase that SSI, a new AI company co-founded by Ilya Sutskever, formerly OpenAI’s chief scientist, used with no trace of self-awareness in announcing his company’s mission. (“SSI” stands for “safe superintelligence,” of course.) To do that, they’ll need to commandeer all creative resources—to eminent-domain the entire internet. The stakes demand it. We’re to trust that they will build these tools safely, implement them responsibly, and share the wealth of their creations. We’re to trust their values—about the labor that’s valuable and the creative pursuits that ought to exist—as they remake the world in their image. We’re to trust them because they are smart. We’re to trust them as they achieve global scale with a technology that they say will be among the most disruptive in all of human history. Because they have seen the future, and because history has delivered them to this societal hinge point, marrying ambition and talent with just enough raw computing power to create God. To deny them this right is reckless, but also futile.

It’s possible, then, that generative AI’s chief export is not image slop, voice clones, or lorem ipsum chatbot bullshit but instead unearned, entitled audacity. Yet another example of AI producing hallucinations—not in the machines, but in the people who build them.

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

Guanacaste Housing Crisis Deepens Amid Costa Rica’s Luxury Boom

Guanacaste continues to solidify its reputation as one of Costa Rica’s most dynamic real estate hubs, with construction activity showing steady growth in 2024, according to the latest data from the Association of Engineers and Architects (CFIA). The province recorded a 3.2% increase in construction compared to the previous year, driven largely by urban infrastructure […] The post Guanacaste Housing Crisis Deepens Amid Costa Rica’s Luxury Boom appeared first on The Tico Times | Costa Rica News | Travel | Real Estate.

Guanacaste continues to solidify its reputation as one of Costa Rica’s most dynamic real estate hubs, with construction activity showing steady growth in 2024, according to the latest data from the Association of Engineers and Architects (CFIA). The province recorded a 3.2% increase in construction compared to the previous year, driven largely by urban infrastructure and housing projects. Yet, as development accelerates, outdated regulatory plans, environmental degradation, and a widening housing gap threaten the region’s sustainability. The CFIA reports that urban infrastructure led the construction surge in 2024, comprising 44% of the total square meters built. Housing projects followed closely at 35%, with coastal areas like Nosara, Tamarindo, and Sámara seeing a proliferation of residential condominiums catering to tourists and foreign investors. Commercial developments, while growing steadily, accounted for just 9% of the built-up area, with industrial projects at 5% and miscellaneous construction at 7%. Notably, 79% of these efforts involve new developments, compared to 14% for remodeling, highlighting Guanacaste’s rapid expansion and high demand. In key areas like Nicoya, Liberia, and Santa Cruz, real estate development is advancing at a brisk pace. However, the Association of Topographical Engineers warns that outdated urban planning regulations are stifling sustainable growth. Nicoya’s regulatory plan, unchanged for 42 years, is the oldest in the province, followed by Santa Cruz’s 31-year-old framework and Liberia’s 19-year-old guidelines—among the most antiquated in Costa Rica. These plans, meant to govern land use, protect water resources, and mitigate risks like flooding and sewer failures, are ill-equipped for the region’s modern demands. Nicoya’s municipality is tackling this issue head-on, drafting a new regulatory plan that will extend construction guidelines to coastal hotspots like Nosara and Sámara. Currently in the study phase, the project—backed by local authorities and urban planning experts—aims to address unchecked growth and environmental strain. However, completion is projected to take four years, leaving a window for unregulated development to persist. “We’re racing against time,” said Josué Ruiz, head of Nicoya’s Public Works and Construction Control Department, in a recent interview with Voz de Guanacaste. “The longer we delay, the harder it becomes to balance progress with preservation.” The stakes are high. Guanacaste’s luxury real estate boom, fueled by a 400% surge in coastal property prices between 2020 and 2023 (per the Observatory of Tourism, Migrations, and Sustainable Development), has transformed the province into a magnet for wealthy expatriates and retirees. High-end developments—such as the Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton projects slated for 2025—dominate the market, yet affordable housing remains elusive. A 2023 study by the CFIA and the University of Costa Rica found that while 26% of homes built in Guanacaste over the past decade exceed 150 square meters, the province faces a qualitative housing deficit of over 750,000 units, leaving most locals priced out. This disparity is driving displacement. In districts like Cuajiniquil, vacancy rates have soared from 32.1% in 2011 to 66.4% in 2022, as homes sit empty for seasonal use by tourists rather than serving residents, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). “Housing has become a privilege, not a right,” said Franklin Solano, an urban planning researcher at UCR, in a Voz de Guanacaste report. “The boom satisfies economic needs for some, but the social impacts are mounting.” Environmental concerns compound the crisis. Deforestation, loss of green spaces, and damage to protected areas are escalating as construction outpaces oversight. We reported in March 2024 that unchecked development in Guanacaste’s coastal zones has led to aquifer salinization and biodiversity loss, echoing local protests against mega-projects documented in a 2024 ResearchGate study. In Nosara, for instance, luxury developments have sparked outrage over water access, with communities reliant on overexploited wells. Meanwhile, the CFIA notes that only nine of Guanacaste’s 11 municipalities use its online permitting platform, leaving gaps in enforcement—Santa Cruz and La Cruz lag behind due to inadequate technology and training. Despite these challenges, optimism persists. The Latinvestor forecasted in January 2024 that infrastructure upgrades—like the expansion of Liberia’s Daniel Oduber Quirós International Airport—could bolster Guanacaste’s appeal, potentially stabilizing the market. Legislative efforts, such as the Water for Guanacaste Law signed in 2022, aim to address resource scarcity, though implementation remains slow. Nicoya’s forthcoming regulatory plan, expected by 2029, promises stricter environmental and zoning controls, but experts warn that bureaucratic delays could undermine its impact. For now, Guanacaste stands at a crossroads. As construction topped 2 million square meters in 2024—a milestone hailed by Revista Viajes—the province’s leaders face a stark choice: harness this growth for equitable, sustainable development or risk a future defined by inequality and ecological collapse The post Guanacaste Housing Crisis Deepens Amid Costa Rica’s Luxury Boom appeared first on The Tico Times | Costa Rica News | Travel | Real Estate.

Are we living through a ‘polycrisis’ or is it ‘just history happening’?

The term ‘polycrisis’ has gained traction as we face one disaster after another. It’s overwhelming – but diagnosing the catastrophe is the first step to addressing itTwo months into 2025, the sense of dread is palpable. In the US, the year began with a terrorist attack; then came the fires that ravaged a city, destroying lives, homes and livelihoods. An extremist billionaire came to power and began proudly dismantling the government with a chainsaw. Once-in-a-century disasters are happening more like once a month, all amid devastating wars and on the heels of a pandemic.The word “unprecedented” has become ironically routine. It feels like we’re stuck in a relentless cycle of calamity, with no time to recover from one before the next begins. Continue reading...

Two months into 2025, the sense of dread is palpable. In the US, the year began with a terrorist attack; then came the fires that ravaged a city, destroying lives, homes and livelihoods. An extremist billionaire came to power and began proudly dismantling the government with a chainsaw. Once-in-a-century disasters are happening more like once a month, all amid devastating wars and on the heels of a pandemic.The word “unprecedented” has become ironically routine. It feels like we’re stuck in a relentless cycle of calamity, with no time to recover from one before the next begins.How do we make sense of any of this – let alone all of it, all at once?A number of terms have cropped up in the past decade to help us describe our moment. We’re living in the anthropocene – the era in which humanity’s impact is comparable to that of geology itself. Or we’re in the “post-truth” era, in which we no longer share the same sense of reality. We’re facing a permacrisis, an endless state of catastrophe.But perhaps the word that best describes this moment is one that emerged at the turn of the millennium, picked up steam in the 2010s and has recently been making the global rounds again: polycrisis.Not to be confused with a “perfect storm” or the perhaps less scientific “clusterfuck”, “polycrisis” – a term coined by the authors Edgar Morin and Anne Brigitte Kern – refers to the idea that not only are we facing one disaster after another, but those messes are all linked, making things even worse. Or, as Adam Tooze, a Columbia University history professor and public intellectual who has championed the term, put it: “In the polycrisis the shocks are disparate, but they interact so that the whole is even more overwhelming than the sum of the parts.”Our globalized world is built on interconnecting systems, and when one gets rattled, the others do too – a heating climate, for instance, increases the risk of pandemics, pandemics undermine economies, shaky economies fuel political upheaval. “There’s a kind of larger instability, or a larger system disequilibrium,” the researcher Thomas Homer-Dixon says. To illustrate the situation, Homer-Dixon uses a video of metronomes on a soft surface. Though they’re all started at different times, they end up synchronized, as each device’s beat subtly affects the rest. When people see it for the first time, “they don’t actually see what’s happening properly. They don’t realize the forces that are operating to cause the metronomes to actually synchronize with each other,” Homer-Dixon says.In much the same way, it’s often unclear even to experts how global systems interact because they are siloed in their disciplines. That limits our ability to confront intersecting problems: the climate crisis forces migration; xenophobia fuels the rise of the far right in receiving countries; far-right governments undermine environmental protections; natural disasters are more destructive. Yet migration experts may not be experts on the climate crisis, and climate experts may have limited knowledge of geopolitics.That’s why Homer-Dixon thinks better communication is essential – not just to create consensus around what we call our current predicament but also how to address it. He runs the Cascade Institute, which is fostering “a community of scholars and experts and scientists and policy makers around the world who are using this concept [of polycrisis] in constructive ways”.“Constructive” is a key word here. “You’ve got to get the diagnosis right before you can go to the prescription,” he says. Finding that diagnosis means looking at how stresses on various systems – climate, geopolitics, transportation, information, etc – intersect and identifying what his team calls “high leverage intervention points”: “places where you can go in and have a really big impact for a relatively low investment”. The Cascade Institute’s proposals target what they have identified as key drivers of the polycrisis, such as polarization and climate change, by, for instance, improving school curricula to bolster students’ understanding of disinformation and expanding the use of deep geothermal power.In addition to bringing people with disparate expertise together, the Cascade Institute, part of Royal Roads University in British Columbia, has developed an analytical framework for understanding the polycrisis, and it operates a website, polycrisis.org, which serves as a hub for the latest thinking on the issue – including critiques of the concept, Homer-Dixon says. The site contains a compendium of resources from academia to blogposts that explore the polycrisis, reflecting, for instance, on what’s already happened in 2025 (a tenuous ceasefire in Gaza, California wildfires, Trump upending the global order, an AI-bubble selloff, and the outbreak of bird flu).A burning house during the Eaton fire in Altadena on 8 January. Photograph: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty ImagesThere has been some backlash to the idea of the polycrisis. The historian Niall Ferguson has described it as “just history happening”. The political scientist Daniel Drezner says its proponents “assume the existence of powerful negative feedback effects that may not actually exist” – in other words, when crises overlap, the outcome might not always be bad (for instance, the pandemic lockdowns might have had some short-lived environmental benefits). Some point to past crises as evidence that what we’re experiencing isn’t new.Homer-Dixon disagrees. “We’ve moved so far and so fast outside our species’ previous experience that many elites don’t have the cognitive frame to grasp our situation, even were they inclined to do so,” he wrote in 2023, when the term was the talk of Davos.It’s all a bit overwhelming, as Homer-Dixon acknowledges. “If you’re not really scared by what’s going on in the world, you’re braindead,” he says.On the other hand, “t​​he crisis can actually be a moment for really significant change,” he says, “because it kind of delegitimizes the existing way of doing stuff, the existing vested-interest stakeholders who are who are hunkered down and don’t want anything to change”. For instance, while Homer-Dixon sees Trump as an “abominable” figure, he also notes that, “like an acid”, the president dissolves norms around him. That creates the risk of disaster but also offers opportunities to change the world for the better.“This really is a critical moment in human history and things can be done,” Homer-Dixon says. “We don’t know enough about how these systems are operating to know that it’s game over.”And the term itself, as terrifying as it is, can also be a strange comfort. “I think that’s useful, giving the sense a name. It’s therapeutic,” Tooze told Radio Davos. When the world feels like a nightmare, identifying the condition gives us something to hold on to – a kind of understanding amid the chaos.

Nose-to-tail mining: how making sand from ore could solve a looming crisis

The world’s appetite for sand is surging – and it comes at a real cost to the environment. The alternative: a paradigm shift in metal mining to also extract sand.

Thanagornsoisep/ShutterstockEvery year, the world consumes around 50 billion tonnes of sand, gravel and crushed stone. The astonishing scale of this demand is hard to comprehend – 12.5 million Olympic sized swimming pools per year – making it the most-used solid material by humans. Most of us don’t see the sand and gravel all around us. It’s hidden in concrete footpaths and buildings, the glass in our windows and in the microchips that drive our technology. Demand is set to increase further – even as the extraction of sand and gravel from rivers, lakes, beaches and oceans is triggering an environmental crisis. Sand does renew naturally, but in many regions, natural sand supplies are being depleted far faster than they can be replenished. Desert sand often has grains too round for use in construction and deserts are usually far from cities, while sand alternatives made by crushing rock are energy- and emissions-intensive. But there’s a major opportunity here, as we outline in our new research. Every year, the mining industry crushes and discards billions of tonnes of the same minerals as waste during the process of mining metals. By volume, mining waste is the single largest source of waste we make. There’s nothing magical about sand. It’s made up of particles of weathered rock. Gravel is larger particles. Our research has found companies mining metals can get more out of their ores, by processing the ore to produce sand as well. This would solve two problems at once: how to avoid mining waste and how to tackle the sand crisis. We dub this “nose-to-tail” mining, following the trend in gastronomy to use every part of an animal. Concrete is everywhere – but it requires a great deal of sand and gravel. MVolodymyr/Shutterstock The failings of tailings The metal sulphides, oxides and carbonates which can be turned into iron, copper and other metals are only a small fraction of the huge volumes of ore which have to be processed. Every year, the world produces about 13 billion tonnes of tailings – the ground-up rock left over after valuable metals are extracted – and another 72 billion tonnes of waste rock, which has been blasted but not ground up. For decades, scientists have dreamed of using tailings as a substitute for natural sand. Tailings are often rich in silicates, the principal component of sand. But to date, the reality has been disappointing. More than 18,000 research papers have been published on the topic in the last 25 years. But only a handful of mines have found ways to repurpose and sell tailings. Why? First, tailings rarely meet the strict specifications required for construction materials, such as the size of the particles, the mineral composition and the durability. Second, they come with a stigma. Tailings often contain hazardous substances liberated during mining. This makes governments and consumers understandably cautious about using mining waste in homes and our built environment. Neither of these problems is insurmountable. In our research, we propose a new solution: manufacture sand directly from ore. Converting rock into metal is a complex, multi-step process which differs by type of metal and by type of ore. After crushing, the minerals in the ore are typically separated using flotation, where the metal-containing sulphide minerals attach to tiny bubbles that float up through the slurry of rock and water. At this stage, leftover ore is normally separated out to be disposed of as waste. But if we continue to process the ore, such as by spinning it in a cyclone, impurities can be removed and the right particle size and shape can be achieved to meet the specifications for sand. We have dubbed this “ore-sand”, to distinguish it from tailings. It’s not made from waste tailings – it’s a deliberate product of the ore. Turning ore into metal requires intensive crushing and grinding. These methods could also make sand. Aussie Family Living/Shutterstock More from ore This isn’t just theory. At the iron ore mine Brucutu in Brazil, the mining company Vale is already producing one million tonnes of ore-sand annually. The sand is used in road construction, brickmaking and concrete. The move came from tragedy. In 2015 and 2019, the dams constructed to store tailings at two of Vale’s iron ore mines collapsed, triggering deadly mudflows. Hundreds of people died – many of them company employees – and the environmental consequences are ongoing. In response, the company funded researchers (such as our group) to find ways to reduce reliance on tailings dams in favour of better alternatives. Following our work with Vale we investigated the possibility of making ore-sand from other types of mineral ores, such as copper and gold. We have run successful trials at Newmont’s Cadia copper-gold mine in Australia. Here, using innovative methods we have produced a coarser ore-sand which doesn’t require as much blending with other sand. Ore-sand processing makes the most sense for mines located close to cities. This is for two reasons: to avoid the risk of tailings dams to people living nearby, and to reduce the transport costs of moving sand long distances. Our earlier research showed almost half the world’s sand consumption happens within 100 kilometres of a mine which could produce ore-sand as well as metals. Since metal mining already requires intensive crushing and grinding, we found ore-sand can be produced with lower energy consumption and carbon emissions than the extraction of conventional sands. The challenge of scale For any new idea or industry, the hardest part is to go from early trials to widespread adoption. It won’t be easy to make ore-sand a reality. Inertia is one reason. Mining companies have well-established processes. It takes time and work to introduce new methods. Industry buy-in and collaboration, supportive government policies and market acceptance will be needed. Major sand buyers such as the construction industry need to be able to test and trust the product. The upside is real, though. Ore-sand offers us a rare chance to tackle two hard environmental problems at once, by slashing the staggering volume of mining waste and reducing the need for potentially dangerous tailings dams, and offering a better alternative to destructive sand extraction. Daniel Franks would like to acknowledge funding and collaboration support from the Queensland Government, Australian Economic Accelerator, Resources Technology and Critical Minerals Trailblazer, Newcrest Mining, Newmont, Vale, The University of Geneva, The University of Exeter, The Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, and The University of Queensland. Daniel Franks is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT240100383) funded by the Australian Government.

No new ADUs here: When California law and homeowner association rules collide

He says state law gives him the right to turn his garage into an apartment. His HOA says it doesn’t. Who's right?

In summary He says state law gives him the right to turn his garage into an apartment. His HOA says it doesn’t. Who’s right? Adam Hardesty insists he wanted to do everything by the book.  Before moving forward with his plans to convert the garage of his three-story condo into a ground-floor apartment, he canvassed local architects and engineers to make sure a kitchenette, a bedroom and a bathroom could all be packed safely and legally into just 373 square feet.  He pored over local zoning maps, checked with the city of Carlsbad and got himself a building permit.  He sought and received the blessing of many of his immediate neighbors. He even emailed a planner at the state’s housing department to get his take on whether he was legally entitled to build what California law refers to as an “accessory dwelling unit.”  An unemployed project manager who has struggled to find work for more than a year, Hardesty had the time to do the research, the training to conduct it thoroughly and the financial rationale to turn his garage into a rental. “To help offset the housing crisis and also provide affordable housing, but also to provide a revenue source for my family — why not?” he said. What he didn’t count on was opposition from his own homeowners association — if only because he’s also the HOA board vice president. Hardesty floated the idea to his fellow board members late last summer. What followed was months of sternly worded legal missives, deadlocked negotiations and a heated battle over property rights that has pitted neighbor against neighbor across the Mystic Point Homeowners Association’s bucolic hillside subdivision along the coast north of San Diego. At the center of the debate is among the most divisive questions in California politics: Who has the final say about what gets built where? Construction at Adam Hardesty’s home in Carlsbad on Feb. 19, 2025. Photo by Adriana Heldiz, CalMatters The California Legislature has been on a decade-long tear trying to make it harder for locals to say “no” to new housing. They’ve passed bills that force cities and counties to plan for more residential density and approve projects without conditions, and that punish governments that don’t cooperate. A raft of California laws on accessory dwelling units (ADUs) have been particularly aggressive in stripping locals of their regulatory say-so. It’s not always clear how homeowners associations, the quasi-private governments that set and enforce neighborhood rules across so much of suburban California, fit into this new policy landscape. Not all of the state’s pro-housing mandates apply to HOAs. Sometimes the laws are ambiguous on the question. And even when a state statute explicitly overrides any contrary association covenants or restrictions, there’s no obvious enforcement body that stands at the ready to ensure the law is followed. When disagreements surface, they can get hashed out in court. That’s despite the fact that homes governed by these associations have been one of the fastest growing segments of the national housing supply for decades.  More than one-third of California’s housing stock, home to more than 14 million people, is regulated by a homeowners association, condo or residential co-op board, according to the Foundation for Community Association Research.  This has all turned the humble, frequently derided HOA into one of the last lines of defense in the battle for local control in California. The fabric of the community The pushback that Hardesty received was gentle at first. The garage conversion would be “precedent setting” for the Mystic Point Homeowners Association, board member Mike Cartabianco stressed to Hardesty in a text message from late August.  An influx of ADUs and a loss of garages could change the fabric of the community, worsen the parking situation and undercut the very reason “why we and other(s) bought here,” he said. Though he wasn’t categorically against the proposal, all of this made the plan “an uphill battle.” Cartabianco suggested that Hardesty consider “scaling down” the project, perhaps by removing the kitchenette, or by drawing upon the equity in his condo to meet his financial needs. Hardesty persisted, sending a letter of intent to the entire board. Official opposition soon followed.  Construction at Adam Hardesty’s home in Carlsbad on Feb. 19, 2025. Photo by Adriana Heldiz, CalMatters First: Adam Hardesty reviews the floor plans of the accessory dwelling unit he is building at his home. Last: Adam Hardesty looks through the construction at his home in Carlsbad on Feb. 19, 2025. Photo by Adriana Heldiz, CalMatters Adam Flury, an attorney hired by the association, advised the board in an email to “absolutely deny” the request as a violation of the board’s governing documents. Hardesty responded, politely but firmly, that he would be moving ahead anyway. “Rest assured, this is coming down the pike and I would love for you all to participate in this project with me,” he wrote in an email.  Two weeks later he received a cease-and-desist letter. It warned Hardesty that he ran the risk of exposing himself “to legal consequences and unnecessary expense” if he didn’t let up. In an email response to CalMatters, Flury said that the “association does not comment on potential legal matters.” Neither Cartabianco nor HOA President Shauna Bligh responded to repeated efforts to speak with them. The Mystic Point ADU dispute is “ripe for litigation,” said Marco Gonzalez, an environmental and land use lawyer whom Hardesty hired to respond to the HOA’s cease and desist letter. “But you gotta have a homeowner with deep enough pockets and the risk profile to take it to the mat.” Hardesty, who is still without a steady job and claims to have already spent upward of $8,000 of his savings on the project, said he didn’t have deep enough pockets to keep paying Gonzalez.  For now, he is focused on construction. This month, he broke ground and began gutting his garage — without the HOA’s permission or apparent knowledge.  The price tag of fewer neighbors A homeowners association occupies the blurry line that separates private club from hyper-local government. Though their legal status is usually nonprofit, with each homeowner acting as a paying member, by enforcing rules on what people can build on their own property, they assume a role comparable to a town’s planning-and-building department.  Strict rules about development may be part of their appeal: A nationwide study of HOAs from 2019 found that homes regulated by associations are, on average, worth $13,500 more than comparable homes outside an HOA’s jurisdiction. But that premium is even higher in places with loose controls on development. In other words, people are often willing to pay more to live in an HOA, at least in part, to buy the peace of mind that an apartment building won’t unexpectedly pop up on their block. The Mystic Point townhome community in Carlsbad on Feb. 19, 2025. Photo by Adriana Heldiz, CalMatters A central function of HOAs is to “maintain property values,” said Ron Cheung, an Oberlin College economist, who has conducted similar research on homeowners associations. “The way they do this is, one, by providing better public services than the city does and, two, by enforcing regulations on things — like the appearance of the home and the behavior of the residents and on what you can build and can’t build.” In 2019, the California Legislature passed a law to keep HOAs from enforcing such regulations on accessory dwelling units. The bill, authored by former Burbank Democratic Assemblymember Laura Friedman, voided any association rule that “effectively prohibits or unreasonably restricts” the construction of ADUs. That’s the law that Hardesty says gives him the right to ignore his board’s legal warnings. The rub is that the law applies to parcels of land that are “zoned for single-family residential use.”  Hardesty lives in a condominium six-plex.  According to Gonzalez, Hardesty’s former attorney, the homeowners association’s lawyer argued that because the zoning map allows for more than just single-family homes, Hardesty’s parcel is not “zoned for single-family residential use” and therefore the law doesn’t apply. What applies instead is the association’s ban on using garages for anything other than cars. Gonzalez countered that because single-family homes are one of many uses allowed in the subdevelopment, the parcel is still, in fact, “zoned for single-family residential use,” even if it’s zoned for other things too, and that the garage rule is an effective ADU prohibition barred by the 2019 law. Friedman, now a member of Congress, did not respond to CalMatters’ questions about the law’s intent. HOAs vs ADUs: A “muddy” area of law Hardesty’s interpretation of state law is shared by at least one analyst at the state’s housing department. After Hardesty wrote to the department’s ADU team, David Barboza, a staff housing policy specialist at the California Department of Housing and Community Development, wrote back. “I don’t agree that State ADU Law is inapplicable to condo developments,” he told Hardesty. Because “single-family residences are a permitted use” on his property, the pro-ADU law likely applies.  But that interpretation doesn’t necessarily have the force of law and, in any case, the department has no plans to get involved in these types of disputes. Adam Hardesty looks through floor plans at his home in Carlsbad on Feb. 19, 2025. Hardesty is currently converting the garage of his three-story condo into a ground-floor apartment, despite opposition from his own Homeowners Association. Photo by Adriana Heldiz, CalMatters If it were Carlsbad’s planning department telling Hardesty not to convert his garage, that would fall under the state housing department’s regulatory authority. But HOAs are different, said department spokesperson Jennifer Hanson. “We do not have the ability to take enforcement actions directed at HOAs,” she said.  Jeanne Grove, a real-estate lawyer with the law firm Nixon Peabody who regularly represents HOAs, said the legal question is “really muddy for homeowners associations” and that it’s not always clear where their contractual responsibilities to enforce their own rules end and state housing law begins. Gonzalez, Hardesty’s former lawyer, said he isn’t surprised by the association’s position. “HOA attorneys are pre-programmed to say ‘no,’” he said. But though the debate rests on a relatively narrow grammatical question, it’s an important one for a state in the throes of a chronic housing shortage and affordability crisis, he added.  “There are, I would, expect hundreds, if not thousands, of condo homeowners who have no idea they might be able to convert their garage,” said Gonzalez. Some of them might even be Hardesty’s neighbors.  Standing in the shared driveway of Hardesty’s condo-plex, Barbara Malone, who lives just up the street, said she was initially skeptical when Adam told her about the project. Now she’s inspired.  Malone is 75 and has 10 grandchildren and two great-grandchildren. “That’s why I have no money,” she said. She works at Lowe’s Home Improvement part time to supplement her modest 401k and Social Security payments. Years ago, she carpeted over her garage, turning it into a playroom. But she said the prospect of converting it into a source of passive income would be life-changing. “For me, it would be a way that I could quit working, I think, if I could put one of these in my garage,” she said. “I would like to do the same thing.” She said she’s already reached out to her immediate neighbors and received their blessing to break ground. Adriana Heldiz contributed to this story. Read more on California housing Why California keeps putting homes where fires burn LA fires expose California’s difficult road to navigate between disaster risk and solving the state’s housing crisis. January 16, 2025January 16, 2025 California city makes ‘aiding’ or ‘abetting’ a homeless camp illegal Outreach workers in the Bay Area city of Fremont worry the new ordinance could target them, despite assurances from the city. February 12, 2025February 13, 2025

With just 5 years to go, the world is failing on a vital deal to halt biodiversity loss

All countries must accelerate efforts to avert the biodiversity crisis, and preserve Earth’s precious natural places for future generations.

Almost 200 nations have signed an ambitious agreement to halt and reverse biodiversity loss but none is on track to meet the crucial goal, our new research reveals. The agreement, known formally as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, seeks to coordinate global efforts to conserve and restore biodiversity. Its overarching goal is to safeguard biodiversity for future generations. Biodiversity refers to the richness and variety within and between plant and animal species, and within ecosystems. This diversity is declining faster than at any time in human history. Five years remain until the framework’s 2030 deadline. Our research shows a more intense global effort is needed to achieve the goals of the agreement and stem the biodiversity crisis. Biodiversity is in decline Biodiversity decline is a growing global issue. Around one million animal and plant species are threatened with extinction. The problem is driven by human activities such as land clearing, climate change, pollution, excessive resource extraction and the introduction of invasive species. As biodiversity continues to degrade, the foundation of life on Earth becomes increasingly unstable. Biodiversity loss threatens our food, water and air. It increases our vulnerability to natural disasters and imperils ecosystems crucial for human survival and wellbeing. The Global Biodiversity Framework was adopted in late 2022 after four years of consultation and negotiation. It involved 23 core commitments to be met by 2030 involving both land and sea. Key to the deal is protecting areas from future harm, and restoring past harms. These aims are captured in two targets. The first is ensuring 30% of degraded areas are under “effective restoration” to enhance biodiversity. This could involve replanting vegetation, reducing weeds and other pests, or restoring water to drained areas. The second is to effectively conserve and manage 30% of land and sea areas – especially those important for biodiversity and the ways ecosystems function and benefit humans. This could mean creating national or marine parks, or nature refuges on private land. Importantly, countries should both increase the size of areas protected or under restoration (a matter of quantity), and choose areas where interventions will most benefit biodiversity (a matter of quality). Nations were asked to provide an action plan before October 2024. In a paper published today, we reviewed these plans. What we found Our findings were disappointing. Only 36 countries (less than one quarter of signatory nations) submitted a plan. Australia was one of them. And the plans provided were underwhelming. In particular, nations fell badly short on the restoration target. Only nine out of 36 countries committed to restoring a specific percentage of land and sea. For example, Italy pledged only to restore “large surfaces of degraded areas” and Australia committed to restoring “priority degraded areas”. Defining commitments with numbers is important, because it allows progress to be monitored and measured, and forces nations to be accountable. Of those nine countries that made specific restoration commitments, only six committed to the 30% goal: Aruba, China, Curaçao, Japan, Luxembourg and Uganda. The results were better when it came to protecting land and sea. Some 22 of the 36 countries set a percentage target for protection. However, only 14 committed to protecting at least 30% of areas, in line with the goals of the deal. Again, quality is also important here. Under the deal nations signed up to, protected land should enhance biodiversity, and cover areas very valuable for biodiversity recovery. However, many nations were silent on the issue of quality when outlining their planned protections. It means their efforts could, in some cases, do little for biodiversity. A spotlight on Australia In recent years, Australia has sought to establish itself as a biodiversity leader on the international stage. This included hosting the global Nature Positive Summit in October last year. Following the summit, the federal government claimed it was: a tangible demonstration of Australia’s commitments under the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. It showed our willingness to work collaboratively towards the goal of halting and reversing biodiversity loss. But despite the rhetoric, our research shows Australia’s plans are not particularly impressive. As noted above, Australia does not provide a percentage target for ecosystem restoration. Instead, its plan refers broadly to restoring “priority areas” without defining what these areas are. Australia’s plan pledges to identify “priority degraded areas” and define what “under effective restoration” means, but does not outline how this will be done. Australia is more aligned with global leaders on protection of biodiversity. It committed to safeguarding 30% of land and water in protected areas. However, it provided limited details on how it will select, implement and enforce protection measures. The plan also fails to recognise current shortcomings in protected areas, both in oceans and on land – in particular, Australia’s focus to date on quantity over quality when it comes to selecting sites. In contrast, the nation of Slovenia mapped out proposed protected areas. So, while Australia did submit an action plan, it has missed the opportunity to be a true global leader. Running out of time The Global Biodiversity Framework aims to unite nations in the fight to conserve and restore biodiversity. But as our research shows, many countries do not have plans to achieve this, and plans submitted to date are largely inadequate. As species and habitats are lost, ecosystems become less stable. This damages human health and wellbeing, as well as economies. Biodiversity loss also undermines vital cultural and spiritual connections to nature. All countries must accelerate efforts to avert the biodiversity crisis, and preserve Earth’s precious natural places for future generations. Justine Bell-James receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program, and Queensland Government's Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation. She is a Director of the National Environmental Law Association.James Watson has received funding from the Australian Research Council, National Environmental Science Program, South Australia's Department of Environment and Water, Queensland's Department of Environment, Science and Innovation as well as from Bush Heritage Australia, Queensland Conservation Council, Australian Conservation Foundation, The Wilderness Society and Birdlife Australia. He serves on the scientific committee of BirdLife Australia and has a long-term scientific relationship with Bush Heritage Australia and Wildlife Conservation Society. He serves on the Queensland government's Land Restoration Fund's Investment Panel as the Deputy Chair.

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