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Will CA keep up its climate momentum?

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Monday, December 12, 2022

California has climate action on the mind. This week state lawmakers, senior officials in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration and prominent environmental leaders are representing California at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal, Canada — an appearance that could make a splash on the world stage as Newsom continues to tout his climate credentials. That’s because California is the first and only U.S. state to be an official observer at the convention and it could help fill a leadership void at the federal level, Mary Creasman, CEO of the California Environmental Voters’ Education Fund, told me Sunday. Creasman said the group, which is leading the California delegation, raised money from the Resources Legacy Fund to cover lawmakers’ trip to the convention. Creasman: “All these governments came together with an agreement on goals and a U.N. framework for biodiversity protection … The U.S. Senate has not ratified that agreement … The U.S. isn’t leading, but California, as the fourth-largest economy in the world, is. And so it’s really important for us to be part of these conversations, to show what is happening in the U.S., in California, what we’re working on, how we’re pushing as states — even if the federal government isn’t there.” Also in attendance: Wade Crowfoot, secretary of California’s Natural Resources Agency. He said in a statement: “This is a pivotal moment for countries from around the globe to take collective action to protect and restore biodiversity and stem a crisis of extinction across the planet. I’m proud that California leaders will be there to engage with the global community and share our message of hope and possibility.” Among the items on Crowfoot’s agenda: highlighting the state’s plans to build the world’s largest wildlife crossing and calling for more public and private investments in such bridges; reinforcing California and Quebec’s existing collaboration on biodiversity issues; and announcing that the state is joining “an intergovernmental group of more than 100 countries that champions conservation of 30% of the world’s lands and waters by 2030.” (The state in April unveiled its own so-called 30×30 blueprint.) Crowfoot is one of four Natural Resources Agency officials attending the conference, and their travel costs are being paid for by the state, said spokesperson Lisa Lien-Mager. The state lawmakers on the trip — who Creasman said have “been showing a lot of leadership” on climate — are Democratic Assemblymembers Laura Friedman, Phil Ting and Ash Kalra, and Democratic state Senators Ben Allen, Henry Stern, Lena Gonzalez and Scott Wiener. Some of them took international climate trips last month: Stern went to Egypt for the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference, while Gonzalez and Friedman traveled to Japan for a climate study tour sponsored by the California Foundation for the Environment and the Economy. Allen, meanwhile, went to Maine and Canada this summer on another climate research tour funded by the foundation. Creasman said California’s commitment to climate action has ramped up significantly since last year’s U.N. climate change conference in Scotland, when Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon told me, “I don’t at all feel that we are leading the world anymore.” Creasman: “Last year, that was true … Our last time we had done anything really significant legislatively on climate was 2018. Now in 2022, we had our biggest year of climate action ever … There’s just a huge amount of both policy, funding investment and administrative action that’s happened across the board.” Asked if she fears that some climate funding may be imperiled by California’s estimated $25 billion budget deficit — and Assembly Democrats acknowledging that some allocations may have to be delayed or re-evaluated — Creasman said: “We can’t just have a big year of action and do nothing again for a few years … We have to continue to make budget investments in climate, we have to make sure that money goes out the door equitably and quickly … I think what’s important is for the state to look at the cost of inaction down the road.” One last climate thing: Even after the massive winter storm that swept across much of California this weekend — dumping rain and snow, closing highways, triggering flash flood warnings and cutting power to thousands of people — the state is still mired in drought. Hence state regulators moving last week to extend through January 2024 a ban on wasteful water practices, such as watering lawns when it rains, using hoses to wash off sidewalks and driveways and running decorative water fountains. A message from our sponsor Don’t keep CalMatters to yourself. Share the day’s most important California news with a colleague today. Get a weekday digest of exclusive reporting and concise summaries of the top stories in California politics and policy. Sign up for WhatMatters. A message from our Sponsor Other Stories You Should Know 1 California election updates Karen Bass is sworn in as Los Angeles mayor by Vice President Kamala Harris in Los Angeles on Dec. 11, 2022. Bass’ stepdaughter Yvette Lechuga holds the Bible used in the swearing-in. Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo Let’s dive into the latest California election news: Karen Bass was sworn in as mayor of Los Angeles by Vice President Kamala Harris at a star-studded Sunday ceremony whose attendees included Gov. Newsom, First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins. Bass, who is set today to declare homelessness a state of emergency, inherits a problem-plagued city with festering political wounds: In front of crying children at a Friday holiday party, City Councilmember Kevin de Léon — who has resisted calls to resign after his participation in a recorded racist conversation — and activist Jason Reedy got in a physical altercation that resulted in both filing police reports against the other. Protesters also disrupted the Saturday swearing-in ceremony of incoming Councilmember Traci Park. And outgoing Councilmember Paul Koretz’ last words at a Friday city council meeting, directed at “disruptors and protesters,” were “F— you.” Outgoing Mayor Eric Garcetti, meanwhile, leaves behind a mixed legacy even as his ambassadorship to India remains up in the air. County elections offices on Friday submitted their final vote tallies from the Nov. 8 election to the secretary of state, who is set to certify the results this week. But things may not be quite over in California’s two closest legislative races: Democratic incumbent Melissa Hurtado of Bakersfield was sworn into the state Senate Saturday after coming out 20 votes ahead of her Republican opponent, David Shepard, who said in a statement his “team is closely assessing whether a recount will be the next step.” The swearing-in was opposed by top Senate Republicans Scott Wilk and Brian Jones, who warned in a Friday statement, “It would be unfair and yet another slight to the residents of the Central Valley for the Senate to rush the seating of either Hurtado or Shepard until there is uniform confidence that every vote has been counted in this razor thin race.” Meanwhile, Republican Greg Wallis declared victory by an 87-vote margin for a state Assembly seat straddling Riverside and San Bernardino counties, while his Democratic opponent Christy Holstege tweeted that her team “will be closely analyzing the results to assess whether a recount is worth pursuing.” The number of Republicans in the state Legislature has fallen to its lowest level in more than a century, according to CBS News — yet they “simply cannot stop repaving their road to irrelevance” in California, as the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli put it in his latest column. The example he cited: Six members of the state’s GOP U.S. House delegation, including presumptive Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, voted last week against federal legislation to codify protections for same-sex and interracial marriage. Oil industry groups have until Thursday to submit signatures to the secretary of state for a 2024 referendum to overturn a state law banning new oil and gas wells near homes, schools and hospitals. It’s just the latest example of business interests turning to the ballot box to try to nix laws coming out of Sacramento — though sometimes the results of the referendum matter less than the reprieve it grants the affected industry. As CalMatters’ Ben Christopher and Jeanne Kuang explain, as soon as a referendum qualifies for the ballot, the law it targets is put on hold for as long as two years — buying companies valuable time. This massive return on investment has prompted some groups to call for changing California’s referendum rules. 2 LA, Long Beach ports dethroned as country’s busiest Stacked containers and cranes at the Port of Los Angeles on Nov. 22, 2021. Photo by Mike Blake, Reuters “We’ve got to get that cargo back.” That was the response from Gene Seroka, the Port of Los Angeles’ executive director, to the Port of New York and New Jersey claiming the title of North America’s busiest container port each month from August to October, the Los Angeles Daily News reports. The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach have for more than two decades been the two busiest in the country — but their share of U.S. container cargo fell during the first 10 months of the year to a combined 25%, the lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Wall Street Journal. Companies are now shipping more of their goods to ports on the East Coast and in the South, including Charleston, South Carolina and Savannah, Georgia. The Port of New York and New Jersey told the Los Angeles Daily News that an estimated 85% of its imports this year were supposed to go to the West Coast. The reasons for the shift away from the West Coast are complex — ranging from ongoing port labor talks that have sparked fears of a possible dockworker strike to last year’s record backlog of cargo ships to changing sea routes amid an intensifying trade war with China — but they could have sizable economic implications if they continue. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach employ more than 1.4 million workers, and Seroka told CNN that “if cargo is down 25% year on year, the jobs could be down right now 20% or 22%. It may not be exactly one for one, but you’ve got a downstream (effect).” 3 Paid family leave helps women keep jobs Illustration by Miguel Gutierrez Jr., CalMatters; iStock California’s paid family leave program — which will soon become more accessible and affordable for lower-income workers — doesn’t just offer new parents time off to care for and bond with their infants. It also allows workers to take time off to care for seriously ill family members, and this little-known benefit has helped prevent women from permanently leaving their jobs, according to a study released today from Wellesley College and Stanford University researchers. One key takeaway: Access to paid family leave more than halved the 10% rate at which women permanently left their jobs to care for spouses with health issues, CalMatters’ Grace Gedye reports. Maya Rossin-Slater, a Stanford health economist and one of the paper’s authors: “We were surprised at how big this effect was.” The effect was negligible for male workers, however: Regardless of whether they had access to paid family leave, less than half of 1% of men in the study reported leaving their job to care for an ill spouse or family member, Rossin-Slater said. A message from our Sponsor CalMatters Commentary CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: Could the Pacific Ocean be California’s savior? Can Karen Bass make good on her promise to combat homelessness? The ability of Bass — the first woman elected mayor of the nation’s second-largest city — to make visible progress on homelessness has massive implications for California Democrats and for government itself, argues veteran Los Angeles journalist Jim Newton. A message from our Sponsor Other things worth your time Some stories may require a subscription to read In unusual move, Newsom smacks California stem cell agency. // Capitol Weekly Newsom talked tough with mayors and supervisors on homelessness. Did it work? // Los Angeles Times Oakland tries to measure true cost of addressing homelessness. // San Francisco Chronicle There is now only one safe parking lot in San Diego that accepts homeless living in RVs. // San Diego Union-Tribune S.F. nonprofit was set to open city’s first supervised drug use site. Then officials pulled the plug. // San Francisco Chronicle He was days from death. His quest to kick fentanyl is a harrowing lesson for S.F. // San Francisco Chronicle S.F.’s 911 dispatch struggling amid staff shortage: ‘We are bleeding.’ // San Francisco Chronicle Column: Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf’s devastating political fall from grace. // Mercury News For future OC redistricting plans, new Assemblymember wants an independent commission. // Orange County Register UC and striking academic workers agree to mediation amid standoff over wages; strike partly ended. // Los Angeles Times Oakland school closures may not happen under new school board. // Oaklandside Impugned East Contra Costa cops allegedly schemed to fake college degrees. // Mercury News Could DA’s decision not to file charges in SDSU gang-rape case have a chilling effect on sex crime reporting? // San Diego Union-Tribune As home prices decline, some California homeowners who bought at peak are nervous. // Los Angeles Times A new rule for $1 million mortgages could help Bay Area homebuyers in 2023. // San Francisco Chronicle Why legal weed is failing in this California county. // Los Angeles Times Cloverdale Ranch, one of the Bay Area’s largest private coastal properties, will become a park. // San Francisco Chronicle

California has climate action on the mind. This week state lawmakers, senior officials in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration and prominent environmental leaders are representing California at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal, Canada — an appearance that could make a splash on the world stage as Newsom continues to tout his climate […]

California’s Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot speaks in front of the site where City of Antioch Brakish Water Desalination Project is being built in Antioch on Aug. 11, 2022. Photo by Martin do Nascimento

California has climate action on the mind.

This week state lawmakers, senior officials in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration and prominent environmental leaders are representing California at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal, Canada — an appearance that could make a splash on the world stage as Newsom continues to tout his climate credentials.

That’s because California is the first and only U.S. state to be an official observer at the convention and it could help fill a leadership void at the federal level, Mary Creasman, CEO of the California Environmental Voters’ Education Fund, told me Sunday. Creasman said the group, which is leading the California delegation, raised money from the Resources Legacy Fund to cover lawmakers’ trip to the convention.

  • Creasman: “All these governments came together with an agreement on goals and a U.N. framework for biodiversity protection … The U.S. Senate has not ratified that agreement … The U.S. isn’t leading, but California, as the fourth-largest economy in the world, is. And so it’s really important for us to be part of these conversations, to show what is happening in the U.S., in California, what we’re working on, how we’re pushing as states — even if the federal government isn’t there.”
  • Also in attendance: Wade Crowfoot, secretary of California’s Natural Resources Agency. He said in a statement: “This is a pivotal moment for countries from around the globe to take collective action to protect and restore biodiversity and stem a crisis of extinction across the planet. I’m proud that California leaders will be there to engage with the global community and share our message of hope and possibility.”
  • Among the items on Crowfoot’s agenda: highlighting the state’s plans to build the world’s largest wildlife crossing and calling for more public and private investments in such bridges; reinforcing California and Quebec’s existing collaboration on biodiversity issues; and announcing that the state is joining “an intergovernmental group of more than 100 countries that champions conservation of 30% of the world’s lands and waters by 2030.” (The state in April unveiled its own so-called 30×30 blueprint.)
  • Crowfoot is one of four Natural Resources Agency officials attending the conference, and their travel costs are being paid for by the state, said spokesperson Lisa Lien-Mager.

The state lawmakers on the trip — who Creasman said have “been showing a lot of leadership” on climate — are Democratic Assemblymembers Laura Friedman, Phil Ting and Ash Kalra, and Democratic state Senators Ben Allen, Henry Stern, Lena Gonzalez and Scott Wiener.

  • Some of them took international climate trips last month: Stern went to Egypt for the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference, while Gonzalez and Friedman traveled to Japan for a climate study tour sponsored by the California Foundation for the Environment and the Economy. Allen, meanwhile, went to Maine and Canada this summer on another climate research tour funded by the foundation.

Creasman said California’s commitment to climate action has ramped up significantly since last year’s U.N. climate change conference in Scotland, when Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon told me, “I don’t at all feel that we are leading the world anymore.”

One last climate thing: Even after the massive winter storm that swept across much of California this weekend — dumping rain and snow, closing highways, triggering flash flood warnings and cutting power to thousands of people — the state is still mired in drought. Hence state regulators moving last week to extend through January 2024 a ban on wasteful water practices, such as watering lawns when it rains, using hoses to wash off sidewalks and driveways and running decorative water fountains.

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Other Stories You Should Know


1 California election updates

Karen Bass, the first Black woman elected Los Angeles mayor, is sworn in by Vice President Kamala Harris, a longtime friend and former California attorney general in Los Angeles on Dec. 11, 2022. Bass' stepdaughter Yvette Lechuga holds the Bible used in the swearing in. Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo
Karen Bass is sworn in as Los Angeles mayor by Vice President Kamala Harris in Los Angeles on Dec. 11, 2022. Bass’ stepdaughter Yvette Lechuga holds the Bible used in the swearing-in. Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo

Let’s dive into the latest California election news:

  • Karen Bass was sworn in as mayor of Los Angeles by Vice President Kamala Harris at a star-studded Sunday ceremony whose attendees included Gov. Newsom, First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins. Bass, who is set today to declare homelessness a state of emergency, inherits a problem-plagued city with festering political wounds: In front of crying children at a Friday holiday party, City Councilmember Kevin de Léon — who has resisted calls to resign after his participation in a recorded racist conversation — and activist Jason Reedy got in a physical altercation that resulted in both filing police reports against the other. Protesters also disrupted the Saturday swearing-in ceremony of incoming Councilmember Traci Park. And outgoing Councilmember Paul Koretz’ last words at a Friday city council meeting, directed at “disruptors and protesters,” were “F— you.” Outgoing Mayor Eric Garcetti, meanwhile, leaves behind a mixed legacy even as his ambassadorship to India remains up in the air.
  • County elections offices on Friday submitted their final vote tallies from the Nov. 8 election to the secretary of state, who is set to certify the results this week. But things may not be quite over in California’s two closest legislative races: Democratic incumbent Melissa Hurtado of Bakersfield was sworn into the state Senate Saturday after coming out 20 votes ahead of her Republican opponent, David Shepard, who said in a statement his “team is closely assessing whether a recount will be the next step.” The swearing-in was opposed by top Senate Republicans Scott Wilk and Brian Jones, who warned in a Friday statement, “It would be unfair and yet another slight to the residents of the Central Valley for the Senate to rush the seating of either Hurtado or Shepard until there is uniform confidence that every vote has been counted in this razor thin race.” Meanwhile, Republican Greg Wallis declared victory by an 87-vote margin for a state Assembly seat straddling Riverside and San Bernardino counties, while his Democratic opponent Christy Holstege tweeted that her team “will be closely analyzing the results to assess whether a recount is worth pursuing.”
  • The number of Republicans in the state Legislature has fallen to its lowest level in more than a century, according to CBS News — yet they “simply cannot stop repaving their road to irrelevance” in California, as the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli put it in his latest column. The example he cited: Six members of the state’s GOP U.S. House delegation, including presumptive Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, voted last week against federal legislation to codify protections for same-sex and interracial marriage.
  • Oil industry groups have until Thursday to submit signatures to the secretary of state for a 2024 referendum to overturn a state law banning new oil and gas wells near homes, schools and hospitals. It’s just the latest example of business interests turning to the ballot box to try to nix laws coming out of Sacramento — though sometimes the results of the referendum matter less than the reprieve it grants the affected industry. As CalMatters’ Ben Christopher and Jeanne Kuang explain, as soon as a referendum qualifies for the ballot, the law it targets is put on hold for as long as two years — buying companies valuable time. This massive return on investment has prompted some groups to call for changing California’s referendum rules.

2 LA, Long Beach ports dethroned as country’s busiest

Stacked containers and cranes at the Port of Los Angeles on Nov. 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Stacked containers and cranes at the Port of Los Angeles on Nov. 22, 2021. Photo by Mike Blake, Reuters

“We’ve got to get that cargo back.”

That was the response from Gene Seroka, the Port of Los Angeles’ executive director, to the Port of New York and New Jersey claiming the title of North America’s busiest container port each month from August to October, the Los Angeles Daily News reports. The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach have for more than two decades been the two busiest in the country — but their share of U.S. container cargo fell during the first 10 months of the year to a combined 25%, the lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Wall Street Journal. Companies are now shipping more of their goods to ports on the East Coast and in the South, including Charleston, South Carolina and Savannah, Georgia. The Port of New York and New Jersey told the Los Angeles Daily News that an estimated 85% of its imports this year were supposed to go to the West Coast.

The reasons for the shift away from the West Coast are complex — ranging from ongoing port labor talks that have sparked fears of a possible dockworker strike to last year’s record backlog of cargo ships to changing sea routes amid an intensifying trade war with China — but they could have sizable economic implications if they continue. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach employ more than 1.4 million workers, and Seroka told CNN that “if cargo is down 25% year on year, the jobs could be down right now 20% or 22%. It may not be exactly one for one, but you’ve got a downstream (effect).”

3 Paid family leave helps women keep jobs

Illustration by Miguel Gutierrez Jr., CalMatters; iStock
Illustration by Miguel Gutierrez Jr., CalMatters; iStock

California’s paid family leave program — which will soon become more accessible and affordable for lower-income workers — doesn’t just offer new parents time off to care for and bond with their infants. It also allows workers to take time off to care for seriously ill family members, and this little-known benefit has helped prevent women from permanently leaving their jobs, according to a study released today from Wellesley College and Stanford University researchers. One key takeaway: Access to paid family leave more than halved the 10% rate at which women permanently left their jobs to care for spouses with health issues, CalMatters’ Grace Gedye reports.

  • Maya Rossin-Slater, a Stanford health economist and one of the paper’s authors: “We were surprised at how big this effect was.”
  • The effect was negligible for male workers, however: Regardless of whether they had access to paid family leave, less than half of 1% of men in the study reported leaving their job to care for an ill spouse or family member, Rossin-Slater said.
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CalMatters Commentary


CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: Could the Pacific Ocean be California’s savior?

Can Karen Bass make good on her promise to combat homelessness? The ability of Bass — the first woman elected mayor of the nation’s second-largest city — to make visible progress on homelessness has massive implications for California Democrats and for government itself, argues veteran Los Angeles journalist Jim Newton.

A message from our Sponsor

Other things worth your time


Some stories may require a subscription to read

In unusual move, Newsom smacks California stem cell agency. // Capitol Weekly

Newsom talked tough with mayors and supervisors on homelessness. Did it work? // Los Angeles Times

Oakland tries to measure true cost of addressing homelessness. // San Francisco Chronicle

There is now only one safe parking lot in San Diego that accepts homeless living in RVs. // San Diego Union-Tribune

S.F. nonprofit was set to open city’s first supervised drug use site. Then officials pulled the plug. // San Francisco Chronicle

He was days from death. His quest to kick fentanyl is a harrowing lesson for S.F. // San Francisco Chronicle

S.F.’s 911 dispatch struggling amid staff shortage: ‘We are bleeding.’ // San Francisco Chronicle

Column: Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf’s devastating political fall from grace. // Mercury News

For future OC redistricting plans, new Assemblymember wants an independent commission. // Orange County Register

UC and striking academic workers agree to mediation amid standoff over wages; strike partly ended. // Los Angeles Times

Oakland school closures may not happen under new school board. // Oaklandside

Impugned East Contra Costa cops allegedly schemed to fake college degrees. // Mercury News

Could DA’s decision not to file charges in SDSU gang-rape case have a chilling effect on sex crime reporting? // San Diego Union-Tribune

As home prices decline, some California homeowners who bought at peak are nervous. // Los Angeles Times

A new rule for $1 million mortgages could help Bay Area homebuyers in 2023. // San Francisco Chronicle

Why legal weed is failing in this California county. // Los Angeles Times

Cloverdale Ranch, one of the Bay Area’s largest private coastal properties, will become a park. // San Francisco Chronicle

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

How This Popular Climate “Solution” Could Tank Our Progress

What could be worth giving up a tenth of your country? The Liberian government reportedly plans to do exactly that and sell control of its intact rainforests to the scion of one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers. A draft memorandum of understanding, leaked last month, between Liberia’s Ministry of Finance and Blue Carbon LLC—one of many companies started by a 38-year-old member of Dubai’s royal family, Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum—would commit the small African nation to hand over exclusive rights to one million hectares of forest lands. In exchange, Blue Carbon will transform that land into “environmental assets,” including carbon credits: essentially, sellable units of promised emissions reductions. Such credits are, in general, intended to offset actual pollution by businesses, individuals, or governments. They can be bought either as a voluntary means of reducing carbon footprints or as a way to comply with government climate goals and regulations.For oil-rich countries like the United Arab Emirates—the host of this year’s U.N. climate talks, COP28—“carbon offset” schemes like the one described above hold incredible promise; the UAE is banking heavily on offsets to meet its own climate goals and has emphasized their importance in the lead-up to COP28. It’s a compelling pitch: Any emissions polluters can’t curb themselves can be outsourced to someone else. That basic premise undergirds everything from frothy corporate net-zero pledges to the decision to make your flight “carbon neutral” at checkout—and (arguably) the world’s hopes of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The only problem is that carbon offsets of all kinds are increasingly being outed as total bullshit.Over the last few years, a drumbeat of academic research and investigative reporting has painted a bleak picture of carbon offsets and the carbon markets through which they’re traded. Just this week, a team of journalists at CarbonBrief published an exhaustive explainer on offsets and the many damning studies poking holes in a practice that’s long been a darling of climate policy wonks. That includes a study now making its way through the peer review process, which estimates that only 12 percent of carbon-offset projects “constitute real emissions reductions.” There are well-documented cases, as well, of carbon credit developers engaging in human rights abuses and displacing Indigenous communities. An investigation published last week by The Guardian and the nonprofit watchdog Corporate Accountability found that 78 percent of the top 50 carbon-offset projects are “likely junk.” That seemingly endless flow of reports has started to make an impact. The European Union is poised to crack down on unprovable “carbon neutral” claims that are often backed up by offsets. Even Shell—which boasted in 2021 about having delivered the first-ever “carbon neutral” liquefied natural gas cargo—quietly abandoned a $100 million-per-year plan last month to build out a pipeline of carbon credits en route to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Stateside, the Commodities Futures Trading Association has recently signaled that it intends to crack down on carbon credit fraud. Lawsuits are beginning to ramp up. That increased scrutiny, though, has yet to spark a broader reckoning with what it means if carbon offsets can’t be counted on to meet climate goals: a far more drastic effort to reduce emissions in real time. “There’s nothing happening today that wasn’t happening five years ago. It’s just that there was no one paying attention to it,” said environmental economist Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, whose research focuses on carbon offsets and storage. The problems with “offsets” (a term of art describing a wide suite of activities) are definitional and fall into a few categories. Most have to do with the integrity of emission-reductions claims. Carbon credits are meant to correspond to emissions that have been avoided—say, through preventing trees from being razed—reduced, or removed, typically either through technologies such as direct air capture, which draws atmospheric carbon in through fans to then be stored in pipelines or injected underground, or “natural” methods like planting trees. Not much is natural, though, about buying up and seeding vast swathes of land with crops meant to serve a single purpose. When it comes to credits generated from avoided emissions, there’s often little way of knowing whether a tract of forest, for instance, was ever actually in danger of being developed. Landowners can say they might bulldoze trees to sell off credits—even if they had no real plans to do so. Polluters who buy credits should be able to prove what’s known as “additionality”—the idea that their purchase made possible emissions reductions that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. But if the trees were never threatened, then the polluter who bought the credits hasn’t actually counteracted any of its own emissions. Third-party verifiers that judge the integrity of carbon credits have been rocked by scandals. Some two-thirds of credits on the voluntary carbon market were verified by the Verified Carbon Standard, which is administered by an NGO called Verra. A months-long investigation by The Guardian, the German outlet Die Zeit, and a nonprofit newsroom called SourceMaterial, published in January, revealed that at least 90 percent of VCS-approved credits generated in the rainforest—popular among major brands like Disney and Gucci—were worthless “phantom credits” that didn’t correspond to any reductions. (Verra has refuted the allegations.)Another major issue is who gets to claim carbon credits. If a wealthy country buys credits from a poorer one, does the country that financed those promised emissions reductions get to count them toward its climate goals? Or does the country where they were reduced? As of now, there are few protections against multiple parties staking a claim to the same credits. Even more legitimate-seeming credits generated from forestry practices are likely unable to guarantee the emissions savings promised. Where a metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted from a coal plant will stay in the atmosphere permanently, with effects felt decades down the line, a metric ton of carbon stored in trees or avoided by saving more of them can be wiped out at virtually any point. True correspondence would require that carbon to be stored permanently. That’s a difficult promise to make. Even project operators who can honestly claim to be protecting as much carbon as they say, that is—based on the size and ecological makeup of the areas in question—can’t guarantee that carbon will be stored indefinitely. California learned firsthand how that can go wrong. The state’s cap-and-trade system is premised on big polluters, including oil and gas drillers, buying up permits that correspond to emissions avoided through the protection of its vast forests. Those purchases allow a firm to make up the difference between emissions reductions in their own operations and a declining, state-mandated cap on how much they’re allowed to emit. Included in that system is a “buffer” stock of additional forest lands set aside by project developers as insurance should other credit-generating trees burn. That buffer was meant to provide 100 years of protection against wildfire risk for California forest offsets. But over the last 10 years, 95 percent of those reserves have gone up in flames, releasing between 5.7 million and 6.8 million metric tons of carbon since 2015. While the country’s largest property insurer has almost entirely stopped taking out new policies in California, citing wildfire risk, the state agency that oversees California’s carbon market still only requires forest offset project developers to set aside an additional 2 to 4 percent of trees as insurance against wildfire risk. As a Mendocino County property called Eddie Ranch burned in 2018, its owners filed paperwork with that agency—the California Air Resources Board—to be paid millions for credits generated from preserving trees that were actively burning. Months later, CARB approved the application, “basing its decision on the state of the ranch before the fire,” the Los Angeles Times reported.  “The entire market is structured around a fundamental falsehood: that a ton of carbon we get from burning fossil fuels is identical to a ton of carbon stored in forests. That is 100 percent false,” Cullenward told me. “If you store carbon for less time than it takes to stabilize temperatures, that storage does not have any climate benefit.”That’s one consequence, he explains, of seeing the world like an economist. On paper, carbon stored in trees and what’s emitted from a coal plant is all just carbon. Physical reality tells a different story. Companies relying on offset credits to meet net-zero goals typically only budget for cheap, low-quality projects likely to be worthless, or worse. High-quality offsets are exceedingly rare. More permanent carbon storage remains unproven at scale but is likely to be needed “at gigaton scale,” Cullenward says, just to stabilize temperatures. After decades of scandals, there have been attempts to put some safeguards around carbon markets. Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement creates a new U.N.-backed carbon market open to governments and companies alike to trade credits. Standards for that are being developed by a supervisory body composed of members from each U.N. regional group, and key elements will need to be approved by the countries that convene at annual U.N. climate meetings.Article 6.2 is meant to govern bilateral carbon trading—agreements reached between countries, as opposed to a market where companies and governments can shop around for offsets or offer them up for sale as needed. As of now, that’s more of a Wild West, says Jonathan Crook, who tracks negotiations for the Brussels-based watchdog Carbon Market Watch. “Countries can more or less do what they want as long as they agree to it,” he said. “There are very few rules that need to be upheld in terms of integrity and additionality.” Among the fears held by Carbon Market Watch and other advocates is that those transactions will turn into a black box. If changes agreed to at last year’s COP stick, countries will be able to keep details about trades confidential. While technical experts at the U.N. will be tasked with reviewing them, they would be forbidden from divulging information to the public. A report published by Carbon Market Watch this week puts forward a set of criteria for judging so-called negative emissions, emphasizing the need to ensure carbon is stored permanently and that such tools are used as a complement to rather than substitute for mitigation. While bilateral trades can already happen, fully fleshed-out rules under 6.2 could stand to explode the market for such deals. As bad news about carbon offsets has multiplied, so too have troubling climate science and catastrophes fueled by rising temperatures. As pressure builds internationally, dramatic land grabs like the one Blue Carbon has pushed in Liberia could become more and more common. As of now, it’s all too likely that those could do more harm than good.

What could be worth giving up a tenth of your country? The Liberian government reportedly plans to do exactly that and sell control of its intact rainforests to the scion of one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers. A draft memorandum of understanding, leaked last month, between Liberia’s Ministry of Finance and Blue Carbon LLC—one of many companies started by a 38-year-old member of Dubai’s royal family, Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum—would commit the small African nation to hand over exclusive rights to one million hectares of forest lands. In exchange, Blue Carbon will transform that land into “environmental assets,” including carbon credits: essentially, sellable units of promised emissions reductions. Such credits are, in general, intended to offset actual pollution by businesses, individuals, or governments. They can be bought either as a voluntary means of reducing carbon footprints or as a way to comply with government climate goals and regulations.For oil-rich countries like the United Arab Emirates—the host of this year’s U.N. climate talks, COP28—“carbon offset” schemes like the one described above hold incredible promise; the UAE is banking heavily on offsets to meet its own climate goals and has emphasized their importance in the lead-up to COP28. It’s a compelling pitch: Any emissions polluters can’t curb themselves can be outsourced to someone else. That basic premise undergirds everything from frothy corporate net-zero pledges to the decision to make your flight “carbon neutral” at checkout—and (arguably) the world’s hopes of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The only problem is that carbon offsets of all kinds are increasingly being outed as total bullshit.Over the last few years, a drumbeat of academic research and investigative reporting has painted a bleak picture of carbon offsets and the carbon markets through which they’re traded. Just this week, a team of journalists at CarbonBrief published an exhaustive explainer on offsets and the many damning studies poking holes in a practice that’s long been a darling of climate policy wonks. That includes a study now making its way through the peer review process, which estimates that only 12 percent of carbon-offset projects “constitute real emissions reductions.” There are well-documented cases, as well, of carbon credit developers engaging in human rights abuses and displacing Indigenous communities. An investigation published last week by The Guardian and the nonprofit watchdog Corporate Accountability found that 78 percent of the top 50 carbon-offset projects are “likely junk.” That seemingly endless flow of reports has started to make an impact. The European Union is poised to crack down on unprovable “carbon neutral” claims that are often backed up by offsets. Even Shell—which boasted in 2021 about having delivered the first-ever “carbon neutral” liquefied natural gas cargo—quietly abandoned a $100 million-per-year plan last month to build out a pipeline of carbon credits en route to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Stateside, the Commodities Futures Trading Association has recently signaled that it intends to crack down on carbon credit fraud. Lawsuits are beginning to ramp up. That increased scrutiny, though, has yet to spark a broader reckoning with what it means if carbon offsets can’t be counted on to meet climate goals: a far more drastic effort to reduce emissions in real time. “There’s nothing happening today that wasn’t happening five years ago. It’s just that there was no one paying attention to it,” said environmental economist Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, whose research focuses on carbon offsets and storage. The problems with “offsets” (a term of art describing a wide suite of activities) are definitional and fall into a few categories. Most have to do with the integrity of emission-reductions claims. Carbon credits are meant to correspond to emissions that have been avoided—say, through preventing trees from being razed—reduced, or removed, typically either through technologies such as direct air capture, which draws atmospheric carbon in through fans to then be stored in pipelines or injected underground, or “natural” methods like planting trees. Not much is natural, though, about buying up and seeding vast swathes of land with crops meant to serve a single purpose. When it comes to credits generated from avoided emissions, there’s often little way of knowing whether a tract of forest, for instance, was ever actually in danger of being developed. Landowners can say they might bulldoze trees to sell off credits—even if they had no real plans to do so. Polluters who buy credits should be able to prove what’s known as “additionality”—the idea that their purchase made possible emissions reductions that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. But if the trees were never threatened, then the polluter who bought the credits hasn’t actually counteracted any of its own emissions. Third-party verifiers that judge the integrity of carbon credits have been rocked by scandals. Some two-thirds of credits on the voluntary carbon market were verified by the Verified Carbon Standard, which is administered by an NGO called Verra. A months-long investigation by The Guardian, the German outlet Die Zeit, and a nonprofit newsroom called SourceMaterial, published in January, revealed that at least 90 percent of VCS-approved credits generated in the rainforest—popular among major brands like Disney and Gucci—were worthless “phantom credits” that didn’t correspond to any reductions. (Verra has refuted the allegations.)Another major issue is who gets to claim carbon credits. If a wealthy country buys credits from a poorer one, does the country that financed those promised emissions reductions get to count them toward its climate goals? Or does the country where they were reduced? As of now, there are few protections against multiple parties staking a claim to the same credits. Even more legitimate-seeming credits generated from forestry practices are likely unable to guarantee the emissions savings promised. Where a metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted from a coal plant will stay in the atmosphere permanently, with effects felt decades down the line, a metric ton of carbon stored in trees or avoided by saving more of them can be wiped out at virtually any point. True correspondence would require that carbon to be stored permanently. That’s a difficult promise to make. Even project operators who can honestly claim to be protecting as much carbon as they say, that is—based on the size and ecological makeup of the areas in question—can’t guarantee that carbon will be stored indefinitely. California learned firsthand how that can go wrong. The state’s cap-and-trade system is premised on big polluters, including oil and gas drillers, buying up permits that correspond to emissions avoided through the protection of its vast forests. Those purchases allow a firm to make up the difference between emissions reductions in their own operations and a declining, state-mandated cap on how much they’re allowed to emit. Included in that system is a “buffer” stock of additional forest lands set aside by project developers as insurance should other credit-generating trees burn. That buffer was meant to provide 100 years of protection against wildfire risk for California forest offsets. But over the last 10 years, 95 percent of those reserves have gone up in flames, releasing between 5.7 million and 6.8 million metric tons of carbon since 2015. While the country’s largest property insurer has almost entirely stopped taking out new policies in California, citing wildfire risk, the state agency that oversees California’s carbon market still only requires forest offset project developers to set aside an additional 2 to 4 percent of trees as insurance against wildfire risk. As a Mendocino County property called Eddie Ranch burned in 2018, its owners filed paperwork with that agency—the California Air Resources Board—to be paid millions for credits generated from preserving trees that were actively burning. Months later, CARB approved the application, “basing its decision on the state of the ranch before the fire,” the Los Angeles Times reported.  “The entire market is structured around a fundamental falsehood: that a ton of carbon we get from burning fossil fuels is identical to a ton of carbon stored in forests. That is 100 percent false,” Cullenward told me. “If you store carbon for less time than it takes to stabilize temperatures, that storage does not have any climate benefit.”That’s one consequence, he explains, of seeing the world like an economist. On paper, carbon stored in trees and what’s emitted from a coal plant is all just carbon. Physical reality tells a different story. Companies relying on offset credits to meet net-zero goals typically only budget for cheap, low-quality projects likely to be worthless, or worse. High-quality offsets are exceedingly rare. More permanent carbon storage remains unproven at scale but is likely to be needed “at gigaton scale,” Cullenward says, just to stabilize temperatures. After decades of scandals, there have been attempts to put some safeguards around carbon markets. Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement creates a new U.N.-backed carbon market open to governments and companies alike to trade credits. Standards for that are being developed by a supervisory body composed of members from each U.N. regional group, and key elements will need to be approved by the countries that convene at annual U.N. climate meetings.Article 6.2 is meant to govern bilateral carbon trading—agreements reached between countries, as opposed to a market where companies and governments can shop around for offsets or offer them up for sale as needed. As of now, that’s more of a Wild West, says Jonathan Crook, who tracks negotiations for the Brussels-based watchdog Carbon Market Watch. “Countries can more or less do what they want as long as they agree to it,” he said. “There are very few rules that need to be upheld in terms of integrity and additionality.” Among the fears held by Carbon Market Watch and other advocates is that those transactions will turn into a black box. If changes agreed to at last year’s COP stick, countries will be able to keep details about trades confidential. While technical experts at the U.N. will be tasked with reviewing them, they would be forbidden from divulging information to the public. A report published by Carbon Market Watch this week puts forward a set of criteria for judging so-called negative emissions, emphasizing the need to ensure carbon is stored permanently and that such tools are used as a complement to rather than substitute for mitigation. While bilateral trades can already happen, fully fleshed-out rules under 6.2 could stand to explode the market for such deals. As bad news about carbon offsets has multiplied, so too have troubling climate science and catastrophes fueled by rising temperatures. As pressure builds internationally, dramatic land grabs like the one Blue Carbon has pushed in Liberia could become more and more common. As of now, it’s all too likely that those could do more harm than good.

Excessive Heat and Bad Coaching Are Killing Young Football Players

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. At the end of a preseason football practice in late July, Myzelle Law, a 19-year-old defensive lineman for MidAmerica Nazarene University in Kansas, returned to the locker room, and began showing signs of seizure. It was hot outside, but Law’s internal […]

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. At the end of a preseason football practice in late July, Myzelle Law, a 19-year-old defensive lineman for MidAmerica Nazarene University in Kansas, returned to the locker room, and began showing signs of seizure. It was hot outside, but Law’s internal body temperature had reached 108F, his family said. He died about a week later, of heat-related illness. Last summer, the same thing happened to the 17-year-old lineman Phillip Laster Jr, a rising senior at Brandon high school in Mississippi. In 2021, 16-year-old Drake Geiger, a player for Omaha South high school in Nebraska, died after collapsing on a practice field. They aren’t the only ones. Between 2018 and 2022, at least 11 football players in the US—at the student and professional level—have died of heat stroke. And the number of young athletes diagnosed with exertional heat illness has been increasing over the past decade or so, as unprecedented, extreme heat butts up against football season. The exertional heat illness rate in high school football was 11.4 times that of all other sports combined. This summer, the hottest on record in North America, teams across the US have been forced to reckon with a changing climate. High school and college teams in searing south-west states—where temperatures rarely dropped below 110F (43.3C) this summer – escaped to practice in the mountains, or by the coast. Teams took to practicing at dawn, before temperatures became unsafe. Friday night games were held later in the evening, or pushed to the next morning. And under the searing late summer sun, athletes and coaches are increasingly questioning the sport’s macho, push-past-the-pain mentality. Coaches acquired wet-bulb thermometers, which account for humidity as well as air temperature, to better measure heat stress, as well as cold immersion tubs to treat heat stroke. “We’re having these heatwaves that are lasting longer. They are more severe than ever before. And they’re touching geographic regions that formerly didn’t experience them,” said Jessica Murfree, a sports ecologist at the University of Cincinnati. “The opportunity to play sports like football is diminishing as a result.” For Max Clark, a sophomore quarterback for the College of Idaho, the start of each football season in August has felt a bit hotter than the last. “As each year goes by, it feels like more and more of our season is consumed with unbearable or uncomfortable heat,” he said. Practices were especially grueling last year, when Clark was a quarterback for the Arizona State Sun Devils. Practices began at 6am, so the team could wrap up before the hottest part of the day. And home games were held after sunset. “People don’t even want to sit in the stands and watch when it’s 103F,” he said. Transferring to the College of Idaho wasn’t much of an escape—Boise was trapped under a heat dome for much of July. To stave off heat illness, Clark closely monitors his nutrition throughout the day, and makes sure to stay hydrated when he’s on and off the field. “It’s about preparing for the heat, because you can’t really escape it.” he said. Players around the world, across all sports of all levels are grappling with similar realizations. The World Cup-winning midfielder Sam Mewis has written about how her performance has been impacted by extreme heat and wildfire smoke. This year, the US Open amended rules to partially shut the stadium roof in order to shade players during a searing heatwave on the east coast. But American football players are among the most vulnerable to heat illness. A 2013 study found that the exertional heat illness rate in high school football was 11.4 times that of all other sports combined. The season’s start coincides not only with the hottest period in much of North America, but also with hurricane season in the south and peak wildfire season in the west. In Idaho, many players and fans have begun to associate smoky skies with football, Clark said. And unlike cross country runners, or soccer players, footballers wear heavy padding and safety gear, which makes it harder for them to cool off. “The environment in which today’s athletes are playing sports, is wholly different from the environment when their coaches were playing.” The artificial grass that students and professionals play on causes even more complications. Studies suggest that synthetic turf can get up to 60F hotter than natural grass, radiating temperatures above 160F on summer days. Most heat illness happens right at the beginning of the season, or pre-season—when players are first returning to the field after long, off-season rests. It can take two or more weeks for their bodies to adjust to grueling outdoor workouts. Certain medications, including common ones used to treat depression and ADHD, can make players especially prone to heat illness. Linemen—the biggest, bulkiest players on the team—are extra vulnerable. “They don’t cool off as well as players with a leaner body might,” said Karissa Niehoff, CEO of the National Federation of State High School Association. “The majority of our heat illnesses in football were in the lineman position.” Nearly a dozen football players died of heat stroke between 2018 and 2022, according to the National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. But the figure may be an underestimate as not all football deaths are reported to the center, or clearly linked to heat in autopsies. The risks are compounded for young athletes of color, who are more likely to go to schools and live in “heat island” neighborhoods that lack shade and green spaces. “Imagine, if you live in a place that doesn’t have air conditioning, you don’t have sufficient shade to keep you cool on your walk to school, and then your school doesn’t have air conditioning either,” said Ruth Engel, an environmental data scientist at UCLA who studies microclimates. “By the time you have to go play football, you’ve never had a chance to cool down—so you start at a huge disadvantage.” The year that the University of Maryland offensive lineman Jordan McNair died—2018—ended up being the fourth hottest year on record globally. The team had just returned from a month-long break to start their first workout of the season. It was a balmy day—just over 80F, with 70 percent humidity, and all the players were running 110-yard sprints. By his seventh sprint, McNair started cramping up, but kept running. About an hour later, he began foaming at the mouth and about thirty minutes after that, he was loaded into an ambulance. The 19-year-old died two weeks later. “Really the main thing I kept asking myself was why?” said his father, Marty McNair. “What did I miss? What did I miss?” A 74-page independent investigation commissioned by the university placed significant blame on the university trainers and medical staff, who failed to check the wet-bulb temperature and modify workouts to reduce the risk of heat illness. Instead, the trainers pushed McNair to keep running even after he showed signs of heat stress and failed to offer life-saving cold-immersion therapy before it was too late. The university eventually agreed to pay a $3.5 million settlement to Jordan’s family, and in the years since, has adopted new policies to better recognize and prevent heat stroke. And Marty McNair started a foundation named for his son, to train coaches and athletes on heat safety. Since then, after a slew of scorching football seasons, he’s started to hear more discussion and action on heat safety, he said. “Obviously global warming is real, and that’s going to be impacting athlete’s safety. And I think now people are starting to be more receptive to that idea.” In 2021, the state adopted a law named for McNair that required the creation of new health and safety requirements in Maryland athletic programs. Lawmakers have introduced a federal version as well. Still, Marty McNair sees massive disparities in the expertise and equipment that schools have to help athletes experiencing a heat stroke. “Your Black, your brown, your rural community teams, you don’t see them checking a wet-bulb globe thermometer—because they’ve barely got the basics,” he said. But as the climate changes, he believes the culture of football will have to change as well. “I always told Jordan to be coachable. So I never taught him that if you feel uncomfortable doing something that the coach asked you to do, you don’t have to do it. You know, listen to your body first.” Zac Taylor can barely remember how his body felt, before he collapsed on the gridiron in 2018. It was hot, and his high school varsity team had been made to do about 280 “up-down” push-ups after two hours of sprints and drills as a punishment for poor performance at a scrimmage. Taylor just remembers waking up at the hospital a week later. He lost more than 50lbs by the time he was discharged, his mother Maggie Taylor recalled. She has since started a non-profit, along with other parents, that donates safety and medical equipment to school teams and teaches young athletes how to look for signs of heat exhaustion. Part of that work includes teaching players to slow down, and coaches to ease off. The idea runs counter to football culture in many ways. (“Water is for cowards,” Denzel Washington’s Coach Boone proclaims in Remember the Titans.) Players are incentivized to strain themselves beyond their limits by coaches who themselves were mentored with the same sort of tough love. “There’s this culture of ‘keep pushing’, of punishment practices and if you stop, you’ll lose your position on the team,” said Maggie Taylor. “That’s how a lot of these old school football coaches operate.” Part of the problem, says Murfree, the sports ecologist, “is the environment in which today’s athletes are playing sports, is wholly different from the environment when their coaches were playing. Year after year we’re outpacing heat records and catastrophic disaster records.” Although very young athletes—at the elementary and middle school level—are physically most prone to heat illness, it’s the teens and young adults who are most at risk for exertional heat stroke, studies have found, simply because they push past their bodies’ warning signs. “With these young adults, all they want to do is make the varsity team, to come off the bench, to get recruited by the best college teams,” said Murfree. “They want to make their coaches and parents proud. And all that can be counterproductive if the body is being overworked.” There’s an idea that young athletes are superhuman, or act like they are, McNair said. “Jordan was 6ft 5, he was 300lbs. He wore a size 16 shoe—but he was still 19 years old,” he said. “These are still kids.”

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