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It turns Out Western Voters Care a Lot About Public Lands

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Tuesday, November 29, 2022

This story was originally published by High Country News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. Ammon Bundy only got 17 percent of the votes in the Idaho governor’s race. Phew, I thought. What a relief. Then: Wait, 100,000 people voted for Ammon Bundy? Yikes! That sorta sums up the 2022 midterm elections: Western voters generally chose pragmatism over ideology, moderation over extremism, and competent governance over outright lunacy, drawing a collective sigh of relief from most reasonable folks. Voters appear to care about climate change, they don’t want oil and gas companies running roughshod over the landscape, and they’re still in favor of protecting public lands. At the same time, a fairly deranged guy who played a leading role in not one but two armed insurrections against the federal government was not only on the ballot, he even received a substantial number of votes. The radical right-wing MAGA faction of the GOP clearly endures and even dominates parts of the West. Still, if I were a political strategist for either party in Washington, DC (yeah, right), I’d be urging my clients to look west right now and take heed of a few major themes from this year’s vote. Public lands won—even when they lost. When President Joe Biden called to congratulate victorious Colorado Democrats after the election, he wore a hat commemorating his October establishment of Camp Hale-Continental Divide National Monument. It was fitting, since the designation likely helped Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet—a public-lands champion with a 90 percent lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters—trounce his challenger, Republican Joe O’Dea. Also: In Nevada, Rep. Dina Titus, who just recently introduced legislation that would establish the Avi Kwa Ame National Monument on 450,000 acres of public land held sacred by Mojave Desert Indigenous people, beat back her Republican challenger. Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona and Diana DeGette of Colorado—both tenacious fighters for public-land protection—decimated their opponents. And in New Mexico, Democratic Reps. Teresa Fernández and Melanie Stansbury—both with perfect League of Conservation Voter scores—were easily reelected. Gabriel Vasquez, a Las Cruces Democrat who founded the Nuestra Tierra Conservation Project, advocated for new national monuments and was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters, prevailed over incumbent Rep. Yvette Harrell, who is blatantly hostile to pretty much every environmental cause. Public-land defeats: All of it. The state’s voters elected a slate of candidates who are actively hostile toward public-land conservation, from incumbent MAGA-Republican Sen. Mike Lee to new state Rep. Phil Lyman, who has long battled with federal land-management agencies. Wyoming voters elected Trump loyalist Harriet Hageman, a longtime proponent of transferring public lands to private hands, to represent them in Congress. Hageman helped persuade a judge to toss the Clinton administration’s roadless rule in the 1990s, prompting environmentalists to dub her the “Wicked Witch of the West.” Ryan Zinke, one of Trump’s scandal-plagued “energy dominance” Interior secretaries, edged out Democrat Monica Tranel to represent Montana’s 1st congressional district. Gun-toting Rep. Lauren Boebert (League of Conservation Voters score: 0)—whose husband purportedly earns six figures as an oil and gas industry “consultant”—had been expected to win handily in public-land-rich western Colorado. But in the end, she barely squeezed past Democrat Adam Frisch. But even in these losses there is cause for optimism. Zinke spent a good portion of his candidacy trying to get Montana voters to forget his time as Trump’s Interior secretary, during which he outdid most of his predecessors when it came to eviscerating public-lands protections. Despite his devotion to industry, he has long preferred to describe himself as a Teddy Roosevelt-esque conservationist. Maybe now that he’s no longer under Trump’s thumb, he’ll begin to walk the talk. Boebert’s razor-thin margin in a Republican-leaning district against a well-to-do, relatively unknown Aspen moderate, shows how unpopular she has become. It’s worth noting that in the election run-up, Boebert came out in favor of Bennet’s bill to establish a Dolores River National Conservation Area to protect the western Colorado watershed. Perhaps she sensed that even Republicans rather enjoy being able to hike and hunt and fish on un-industrialized public lands. Voters want some limits on oil and gas development Republicans spent the past several months weaponizing high gasoline prices, trying to pin them on the Biden administration and on Democratic energy policies. They claimed that Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and oil and gas leasing pause and proposed methane rules stifled production. Although this is untrue—federal policies do little to affect the global petroleum market—the approach worked: Historically, high fuel prices tend to hurt whichever party controls Congress and the White House.  If that gas-price shtick were to play anywhere, it would most likely be in New Mexico, where oil and gas related revenues account for as much as one-third of the state’s budget. Yet it didn’t happen. Instead, Democrats swept nearly every up-ticket race in what can only be called a blue tsunami: Vasquez—the aforementioned Democratic conservationist—defeated fossil-fuel-loving, climate-change denying MAGA-acolyte Herrell in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes New Mexico’s share of the Permian Basin, the nation’s busiest and most productive oilfield. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham defeated Republican Trump loyalist and fossil-fuel devotee Mark Ronchetti, a TV weatherman. Voters returned Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richards to the helm of the New Mexico State Land Office, where she has pushed for clean energy development. Despite the Republican rhetoric, New Mexico’s oil and gas industry has never been healthier than it is today, under state and federal Democratic control. Oil production from the Permian Basin hit an all-time high of about 5 million barrels per day, and the state is looking at a second consecutive year of record oil- and gas-related revenue. The industry, unlike consumers, thrives when oil prices are high, a fact that Republicans sometimes forget. New Mexico Democrats also have learned to govern delicately when it comes to energy. Lujan Grisham has helped wean the state off coal-generated power and established safety nets for workers and communities affected by the energy transition. She also tightened oil and gas regulations and stepped-up enforcement as a way to fight climate change. But she’s certainly no keep-it-in-the-grounder, and she is an enthusiastic booster of methane-derived blue hydrogen, which could help revive the beleaguered natural gas industry in the northwestern part of the state. Vasquez is a die-hard conservationist, but when it comes to oil and gas he says he’ll take a “balanced” approach, defying GOP attempts to paint him with a greener brush. This sort of balance—which tends to make environmentalists cringe—appears to be a political winner. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom was easily reelected. Newsom wants to phase out oil and gas drilling in the state as well as petroleum-powered cars. But he’s also pushing to keep California’s last nuclear plant and its natural gas plants running beyond their planned retirement dates to shore up the climate-change-strained power grid. Similarly, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola—who ran on a “pro-fish, pro-family and pro-freedom” platform—beat Sarah “Drill, Baby, Drill” Palin to represent Alaska in Congress. Peltola, who earlier defeated Palin in a special election, supports oil and gas development within limits and has even come out in favor of ConocoPhillips’ massive proposed Willow drilling project in the Alaskan Arctic. Extremism doesn’t fly in (most of) the West. If there was one across-the-board loser in these midterms, it was the Trump school of extremism. The MAGAs ran a slate of raucous wingnuts, er, outspoken candidates across the region, from Bundy in Idaho to Kari Lake in Arizona, who parroted Trump and bashed old-school GOPers Rep. Liz Cheney and the late Sen. John McCain during her run for governor. Very few succeeded. Bundy was bashed by incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little, and Lake lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs, who supports clean energy, tribal sovereignty, rational immigration reform, and economic justice. (Lake, of course, refuses to concede). Other MAGA losses include: Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly defeated Trump-endorsed white nationalist Blake Masters, whose campaign ads showcased him cooing to semi-automatic firearms in a serial-killer bedroom voice. That might have gotten him elected Mayor of Crazytown, but it sure as heck didn’t sway Arizona voters. Democrat Adrian Fontes defeated Republican election-denier Mark Finchem in the race for Arizona secretary of State. In Nevada, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto held off Republican Adam Laxalt, a Trump loyalist with ties to the fossil fuel industry. Michele Fiore, who supported the Bundy clan during their Nevada standoff with federal agents and in the Oregon armed occupation of a wildlife refuge, lost her race for Nevada state treasurer. As of Nov. 22, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski was leading Trump-endorsed challenger Kelly Tshibaka and was expected to win. Republicans should take a cue from Wyoming—though not from Harriet Hageman From a distance, Wyoming seems like a MAGA stronghold through and through. After all, Hageman decisively deposed arch-conservative Rep. Liz Cheney in the primaries only because of Cheney’s lack of fealty for Trump. But consider, for a moment, Gov. Mark Gordon, who easily won reelection. He’s a Republican and a conservative—but a conservationist? Well, no, he’s not what you’d call an environmentalist in, say, Colorado. But for a Wyoming Republican he is surprisingly moderate on green issues.  Sure, Gordon denounced the Biden administration’s moratorium on oil and gas leasing, calling it “draconian.” But he also acknowledges anthropogenic global warming and touts carbon capture and wind, solar, and nuclear power as means to fight it. Gordon tepidly supported Trump, but condemned the Jan. 6 invasion of the US Capitol. (Earlier this year, the former president dissed Gordon on a Wyoming radio show for failing to adequately support him.) Gordon’s background has a greener tint to it than he lets on during campaign seasons. (Fun fact: He actually served on the High Country News Board of Directors from 2000-2004, as did Idaho Gov. Brad Little during the 1990s.) Gordon was also the treasurer of the national Sierra Club, where he fought coalbed methane drilling. In scathing comments opposing a plan to drill in Wyoming’s Shoshone National Forest in the 1980s, Gordon wrote: “Does it make sense to impair the wild value of these potential additions to the Washakie and North Absaroka Wildernesses? Is it worth it?” Hageman, along with Trump-endorsed Foster Friess, challenged Gordon in the 2018 primaries, and hard-liner Rex Rammell went after him this year for being inadequately conservative. But Wyoming voters were not impressed. According to a Morning Consult poll conducted this summer, Gordon is the most popular governor in America. That’s in spite of—or most likely because of—his relatively middle-of-the-road ways.

This story was originally published by High Country News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. Ammon Bundy only got 17 percent of the votes in the Idaho governor’s race. Phew, I thought. What a relief. Then: Wait, 100,000 people voted for Ammon Bundy? Yikes! That sorta sums up the 2022 midterm elections: Western voters generally chose pragmatism over ideology, moderation […]

This story was originally published by High Country News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Ammon Bundy only got 17 percent of the votes in the Idaho governor’s race. Phew, I thought. What a relief. Then: Wait, 100,000 people voted for Ammon Bundy? Yikes!

That sorta sums up the 2022 midterm elections: Western voters generally chose pragmatism over ideology, moderation over extremism, and competent governance over outright lunacy, drawing a collective sigh of relief from most reasonable folks. Voters appear to care about climate change, they don’t want oil and gas companies running roughshod over the landscape, and they’re still in favor of protecting public lands.

At the same time, a fairly deranged guy who played a leading role in not one but two armed insurrections against the federal government was not only on the ballot, he even received a substantial number of votes. The radical right-wing MAGA faction of the GOP clearly endures and even dominates parts of the West. Still, if I were a political strategist for either party in Washington, DC (yeah, right), I’d be urging my clients to look west right now and take heed of a few major themes from this year’s vote.

Public lands won—even when they lost.

When President Joe Biden called to congratulate victorious Colorado Democrats after the election, he wore a hat commemorating his October establishment of Camp Hale-Continental Divide National Monument. It was fitting, since the designation likely helped Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet—a public-lands champion with a 90 percent lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters—trounce his challenger, Republican Joe O’Dea. Also:

  • In Nevada, Rep. Dina Titus, who just recently introduced legislation that would establish the Avi Kwa Ame National Monument on 450,000 acres of public land held sacred by Mojave Desert Indigenous people, beat back her Republican challenger.
  • Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona and Diana DeGette of Colorado—both tenacious fighters for public-land protection—decimated their opponents.
  • And in New Mexico, Democratic Reps. Teresa Fernández and Melanie Stansbury—both with perfect League of Conservation Voter scores—were easily reelected. Gabriel Vasquez, a Las Cruces Democrat who founded the Nuestra Tierra Conservation Project, advocated for new national monuments and was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters, prevailed over incumbent Rep. Yvette Harrell, who is blatantly hostile to pretty much every environmental cause.
Public-land defeats:
  • All of it. The state’s voters elected a slate of candidates who are actively hostile toward public-land conservation, from incumbent MAGA-Republican Sen. Mike Lee to new state Rep. Phil Lyman, who has long battled with federal land-management agencies.
  • Wyoming voters elected Trump loyalist Harriet Hageman, a longtime proponent of transferring public lands to private hands, to represent them in Congress. Hageman helped persuade a judge to toss the Clinton administration’s roadless rule in the 1990s, prompting environmentalists to dub her the “Wicked Witch of the West.”
  • Ryan Zinke, one of Trump’s scandal-plagued “energy dominance” Interior secretaries, edged out Democrat Monica Tranel to represent Montana’s 1st congressional district.
  • Gun-toting Rep. Lauren Boebert (League of Conservation Voters score: 0)—whose husband purportedly earns six figures as an oil and gas industry “consultant”—had been expected to win handily in public-land-rich western Colorado. But in the end, she barely squeezed past Democrat Adam Frisch.

But even in these losses there is cause for optimism. Zinke spent a good portion of his candidacy trying to get Montana voters to forget his time as Trump’s Interior secretary, during which he outdid most of his predecessors when it came to eviscerating public-lands protections. Despite his devotion to industry, he has long preferred to describe himself as a Teddy Roosevelt-esque conservationist. Maybe now that he’s no longer under Trump’s thumb, he’ll begin to walk the talk.

Boebert’s razor-thin margin in a Republican-leaning district against a well-to-do, relatively unknown Aspen moderate, shows how unpopular she has become. It’s worth noting that in the election run-up, Boebert came out in favor of Bennet’s bill to establish a Dolores River National Conservation Area to protect the western Colorado watershed. Perhaps she sensed that even Republicans rather enjoy being able to hike and hunt and fish on un-industrialized public lands.

Voters want some limits on oil and gas development

Republicans spent the past several months weaponizing high gasoline prices, trying to pin them on the Biden administration and on Democratic energy policies. They claimed that Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and oil and gas leasing pause and proposed methane rules stifled production. Although this is untrue—federal policies do little to affect the global petroleum market—the approach worked: Historically, high fuel prices tend to hurt whichever party controls Congress and the White House. 

If that gas-price shtick were to play anywhere, it would most likely be in New Mexico, where oil and gas related revenues account for as much as one-third of the state’s budget. Yet it didn’t happen. Instead, Democrats swept nearly every up-ticket race in what can only be called a blue tsunami:

  • Vasquez—the aforementioned Democratic conservationist—defeated fossil-fuel-loving, climate-change denying MAGA-acolyte Herrell in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes New Mexico’s share of the Permian Basin, the nation’s busiest and most productive oilfield.
  • Incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham defeated Republican Trump loyalist and fossil-fuel devotee Mark Ronchetti, a TV weatherman.
  • Voters returned Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richards to the helm of the New Mexico State Land Office, where she has pushed for clean energy development.

Despite the Republican rhetoric, New Mexico’s oil and gas industry has never been healthier than it is today, under state and federal Democratic control. Oil production from the Permian Basin hit an all-time high of about 5 million barrels per day, and the state is looking at a second consecutive year of record oil- and gas-related revenue. The industry, unlike consumers, thrives when oil prices are high, a fact that Republicans sometimes forget.

New Mexico Democrats also have learned to govern delicately when it comes to energy. Lujan Grisham has helped wean the state off coal-generated power and established safety nets for workers and communities affected by the energy transition. She also tightened oil and gas regulations and stepped-up enforcement as a way to fight climate change. But she’s certainly no keep-it-in-the-grounder, and she is an enthusiastic booster of methane-derived blue hydrogen, which could help revive the beleaguered natural gas industry in the northwestern part of the state. Vasquez is a die-hard conservationist, but when it comes to oil and gas he says he’ll take a “balanced” approach, defying GOP attempts to paint him with a greener brush.

This sort of balance—which tends to make environmentalists cringe—appears to be a political winner. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom was easily reelected. Newsom wants to phase out oil and gas drilling in the state as well as petroleum-powered cars. But he’s also pushing to keep California’s last nuclear plant and its natural gas plants running beyond their planned retirement dates to shore up the climate-change-strained power grid.

Similarly, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola—who ran on a “pro-fish, pro-family and pro-freedom” platform—beat Sarah “Drill, Baby, Drill” Palin to represent Alaska in Congress. Peltola, who earlier defeated Palin in a special election, supports oil and gas development within limits and has even come out in favor of ConocoPhillips’ massive proposed Willow drilling project in the Alaskan Arctic.

Extremism doesn’t fly in (most of) the West.

If there was one across-the-board loser in these midterms, it was the Trump school of extremism. The MAGAs ran a slate of raucous wingnuts, er, outspoken candidates across the region, from Bundy in Idaho to Kari Lake in Arizona, who parroted Trump and bashed old-school GOPers Rep. Liz Cheney and the late Sen. John McCain during her run for governor. Very few succeeded. Bundy was bashed by incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little, and Lake lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs, who supports clean energy, tribal sovereignty, rational immigration reform, and economic justice. (Lake, of course, refuses to concede).

Other MAGA losses include:
  • Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly defeated Trump-endorsed white nationalist Blake Masters, whose campaign ads showcased him cooing to semi-automatic firearms in a serial-killer bedroom voice. That might have gotten him elected Mayor of Crazytown, but it sure as heck didn’t sway Arizona voters.
  • Democrat Adrian Fontes defeated Republican election-denier Mark Finchem in the race for Arizona secretary of State.
  • In Nevada, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto held off Republican Adam Laxalt, a Trump loyalist with ties to the fossil fuel industry.
  • Michele Fiore, who supported the Bundy clan during their Nevada standoff with federal agents and in the Oregon armed occupation of a wildlife refuge, lost her race for Nevada state treasurer.
  • As of Nov. 22, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski was leading Trump-endorsed challenger Kelly Tshibaka and was expected to win.

Republicans should take a cue from Wyoming—though not from Harriet Hageman

From a distance, Wyoming seems like a MAGA stronghold through and through. After all, Hageman decisively deposed arch-conservative Rep. Liz Cheney in the primaries only because of Cheney’s lack of fealty for Trump.

But consider, for a moment, Gov. Mark Gordon, who easily won reelection. He’s a Republican and a conservative—but a conservationist? Well, no, he’s not what you’d call an environmentalist in, say, Colorado. But for a Wyoming Republican he is surprisingly moderate on green issues. 

Sure, Gordon denounced the Biden administration’s moratorium on oil and gas leasing, calling it “draconian.” But he also acknowledges anthropogenic global warming and touts carbon capture and wind, solar, and nuclear power as means to fight it. Gordon tepidly supported Trump, but condemned the Jan. 6 invasion of the US Capitol. (Earlier this year, the former president dissed Gordon on a Wyoming radio show for failing to adequately support him.)

Gordon’s background has a greener tint to it than he lets on during campaign seasons. (Fun fact: He actually served on the High Country News Board of Directors from 2000-2004, as did Idaho Gov. Brad Little during the 1990s.) Gordon was also the treasurer of the national Sierra Club, where he fought coalbed methane drilling. In scathing comments opposing a plan to drill in Wyoming’s Shoshone National Forest in the 1980s, Gordon wrote: “Does it make sense to impair the wild value of these potential additions to the Washakie and North Absaroka Wildernesses? Is it worth it?”

Hageman, along with Trump-endorsed Foster Friess, challenged Gordon in the 2018 primaries, and hard-liner Rex Rammell went after him this year for being inadequately conservative. But Wyoming voters were not impressed. According to a Morning Consult poll conducted this summer, Gordon is the most popular governor in America. That’s in spite of—or most likely because of—his relatively middle-of-the-road ways.
Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

How This Popular Climate “Solution” Could Tank Our Progress

What could be worth giving up a tenth of your country? The Liberian government reportedly plans to do exactly that and sell control of its intact rainforests to the scion of one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers. A draft memorandum of understanding, leaked last month, between Liberia’s Ministry of Finance and Blue Carbon LLC—one of many companies started by a 38-year-old member of Dubai’s royal family, Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum—would commit the small African nation to hand over exclusive rights to one million hectares of forest lands. In exchange, Blue Carbon will transform that land into “environmental assets,” including carbon credits: essentially, sellable units of promised emissions reductions. Such credits are, in general, intended to offset actual pollution by businesses, individuals, or governments. They can be bought either as a voluntary means of reducing carbon footprints or as a way to comply with government climate goals and regulations.For oil-rich countries like the United Arab Emirates—the host of this year’s U.N. climate talks, COP28—“carbon offset” schemes like the one described above hold incredible promise; the UAE is banking heavily on offsets to meet its own climate goals and has emphasized their importance in the lead-up to COP28. It’s a compelling pitch: Any emissions polluters can’t curb themselves can be outsourced to someone else. That basic premise undergirds everything from frothy corporate net-zero pledges to the decision to make your flight “carbon neutral” at checkout—and (arguably) the world’s hopes of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The only problem is that carbon offsets of all kinds are increasingly being outed as total bullshit.Over the last few years, a drumbeat of academic research and investigative reporting has painted a bleak picture of carbon offsets and the carbon markets through which they’re traded. Just this week, a team of journalists at CarbonBrief published an exhaustive explainer on offsets and the many damning studies poking holes in a practice that’s long been a darling of climate policy wonks. That includes a study now making its way through the peer review process, which estimates that only 12 percent of carbon-offset projects “constitute real emissions reductions.” There are well-documented cases, as well, of carbon credit developers engaging in human rights abuses and displacing Indigenous communities. An investigation published last week by The Guardian and the nonprofit watchdog Corporate Accountability found that 78 percent of the top 50 carbon-offset projects are “likely junk.” That seemingly endless flow of reports has started to make an impact. The European Union is poised to crack down on unprovable “carbon neutral” claims that are often backed up by offsets. Even Shell—which boasted in 2021 about having delivered the first-ever “carbon neutral” liquefied natural gas cargo—quietly abandoned a $100 million-per-year plan last month to build out a pipeline of carbon credits en route to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Stateside, the Commodities Futures Trading Association has recently signaled that it intends to crack down on carbon credit fraud. Lawsuits are beginning to ramp up. That increased scrutiny, though, has yet to spark a broader reckoning with what it means if carbon offsets can’t be counted on to meet climate goals: a far more drastic effort to reduce emissions in real time. “There’s nothing happening today that wasn’t happening five years ago. It’s just that there was no one paying attention to it,” said environmental economist Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, whose research focuses on carbon offsets and storage. The problems with “offsets” (a term of art describing a wide suite of activities) are definitional and fall into a few categories. Most have to do with the integrity of emission-reductions claims. Carbon credits are meant to correspond to emissions that have been avoided—say, through preventing trees from being razed—reduced, or removed, typically either through technologies such as direct air capture, which draws atmospheric carbon in through fans to then be stored in pipelines or injected underground, or “natural” methods like planting trees. Not much is natural, though, about buying up and seeding vast swathes of land with crops meant to serve a single purpose. When it comes to credits generated from avoided emissions, there’s often little way of knowing whether a tract of forest, for instance, was ever actually in danger of being developed. Landowners can say they might bulldoze trees to sell off credits—even if they had no real plans to do so. Polluters who buy credits should be able to prove what’s known as “additionality”—the idea that their purchase made possible emissions reductions that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. But if the trees were never threatened, then the polluter who bought the credits hasn’t actually counteracted any of its own emissions. Third-party verifiers that judge the integrity of carbon credits have been rocked by scandals. Some two-thirds of credits on the voluntary carbon market were verified by the Verified Carbon Standard, which is administered by an NGO called Verra. A months-long investigation by The Guardian, the German outlet Die Zeit, and a nonprofit newsroom called SourceMaterial, published in January, revealed that at least 90 percent of VCS-approved credits generated in the rainforest—popular among major brands like Disney and Gucci—were worthless “phantom credits” that didn’t correspond to any reductions. (Verra has refuted the allegations.)Another major issue is who gets to claim carbon credits. If a wealthy country buys credits from a poorer one, does the country that financed those promised emissions reductions get to count them toward its climate goals? Or does the country where they were reduced? As of now, there are few protections against multiple parties staking a claim to the same credits. Even more legitimate-seeming credits generated from forestry practices are likely unable to guarantee the emissions savings promised. Where a metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted from a coal plant will stay in the atmosphere permanently, with effects felt decades down the line, a metric ton of carbon stored in trees or avoided by saving more of them can be wiped out at virtually any point. True correspondence would require that carbon to be stored permanently. That’s a difficult promise to make. Even project operators who can honestly claim to be protecting as much carbon as they say, that is—based on the size and ecological makeup of the areas in question—can’t guarantee that carbon will be stored indefinitely. California learned firsthand how that can go wrong. The state’s cap-and-trade system is premised on big polluters, including oil and gas drillers, buying up permits that correspond to emissions avoided through the protection of its vast forests. Those purchases allow a firm to make up the difference between emissions reductions in their own operations and a declining, state-mandated cap on how much they’re allowed to emit. Included in that system is a “buffer” stock of additional forest lands set aside by project developers as insurance should other credit-generating trees burn. That buffer was meant to provide 100 years of protection against wildfire risk for California forest offsets. But over the last 10 years, 95 percent of those reserves have gone up in flames, releasing between 5.7 million and 6.8 million metric tons of carbon since 2015. While the country’s largest property insurer has almost entirely stopped taking out new policies in California, citing wildfire risk, the state agency that oversees California’s carbon market still only requires forest offset project developers to set aside an additional 2 to 4 percent of trees as insurance against wildfire risk. As a Mendocino County property called Eddie Ranch burned in 2018, its owners filed paperwork with that agency—the California Air Resources Board—to be paid millions for credits generated from preserving trees that were actively burning. Months later, CARB approved the application, “basing its decision on the state of the ranch before the fire,” the Los Angeles Times reported.  “The entire market is structured around a fundamental falsehood: that a ton of carbon we get from burning fossil fuels is identical to a ton of carbon stored in forests. That is 100 percent false,” Cullenward told me. “If you store carbon for less time than it takes to stabilize temperatures, that storage does not have any climate benefit.”That’s one consequence, he explains, of seeing the world like an economist. On paper, carbon stored in trees and what’s emitted from a coal plant is all just carbon. Physical reality tells a different story. Companies relying on offset credits to meet net-zero goals typically only budget for cheap, low-quality projects likely to be worthless, or worse. High-quality offsets are exceedingly rare. More permanent carbon storage remains unproven at scale but is likely to be needed “at gigaton scale,” Cullenward says, just to stabilize temperatures. After decades of scandals, there have been attempts to put some safeguards around carbon markets. Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement creates a new U.N.-backed carbon market open to governments and companies alike to trade credits. Standards for that are being developed by a supervisory body composed of members from each U.N. regional group, and key elements will need to be approved by the countries that convene at annual U.N. climate meetings.Article 6.2 is meant to govern bilateral carbon trading—agreements reached between countries, as opposed to a market where companies and governments can shop around for offsets or offer them up for sale as needed. As of now, that’s more of a Wild West, says Jonathan Crook, who tracks negotiations for the Brussels-based watchdog Carbon Market Watch. “Countries can more or less do what they want as long as they agree to it,” he said. “There are very few rules that need to be upheld in terms of integrity and additionality.” Among the fears held by Carbon Market Watch and other advocates is that those transactions will turn into a black box. If changes agreed to at last year’s COP stick, countries will be able to keep details about trades confidential. While technical experts at the U.N. will be tasked with reviewing them, they would be forbidden from divulging information to the public. A report published by Carbon Market Watch this week puts forward a set of criteria for judging so-called negative emissions, emphasizing the need to ensure carbon is stored permanently and that such tools are used as a complement to rather than substitute for mitigation. While bilateral trades can already happen, fully fleshed-out rules under 6.2 could stand to explode the market for such deals. As bad news about carbon offsets has multiplied, so too have troubling climate science and catastrophes fueled by rising temperatures. As pressure builds internationally, dramatic land grabs like the one Blue Carbon has pushed in Liberia could become more and more common. As of now, it’s all too likely that those could do more harm than good.

What could be worth giving up a tenth of your country? The Liberian government reportedly plans to do exactly that and sell control of its intact rainforests to the scion of one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers. A draft memorandum of understanding, leaked last month, between Liberia’s Ministry of Finance and Blue Carbon LLC—one of many companies started by a 38-year-old member of Dubai’s royal family, Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum—would commit the small African nation to hand over exclusive rights to one million hectares of forest lands. In exchange, Blue Carbon will transform that land into “environmental assets,” including carbon credits: essentially, sellable units of promised emissions reductions. Such credits are, in general, intended to offset actual pollution by businesses, individuals, or governments. They can be bought either as a voluntary means of reducing carbon footprints or as a way to comply with government climate goals and regulations.For oil-rich countries like the United Arab Emirates—the host of this year’s U.N. climate talks, COP28—“carbon offset” schemes like the one described above hold incredible promise; the UAE is banking heavily on offsets to meet its own climate goals and has emphasized their importance in the lead-up to COP28. It’s a compelling pitch: Any emissions polluters can’t curb themselves can be outsourced to someone else. That basic premise undergirds everything from frothy corporate net-zero pledges to the decision to make your flight “carbon neutral” at checkout—and (arguably) the world’s hopes of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The only problem is that carbon offsets of all kinds are increasingly being outed as total bullshit.Over the last few years, a drumbeat of academic research and investigative reporting has painted a bleak picture of carbon offsets and the carbon markets through which they’re traded. Just this week, a team of journalists at CarbonBrief published an exhaustive explainer on offsets and the many damning studies poking holes in a practice that’s long been a darling of climate policy wonks. That includes a study now making its way through the peer review process, which estimates that only 12 percent of carbon-offset projects “constitute real emissions reductions.” There are well-documented cases, as well, of carbon credit developers engaging in human rights abuses and displacing Indigenous communities. An investigation published last week by The Guardian and the nonprofit watchdog Corporate Accountability found that 78 percent of the top 50 carbon-offset projects are “likely junk.” That seemingly endless flow of reports has started to make an impact. The European Union is poised to crack down on unprovable “carbon neutral” claims that are often backed up by offsets. Even Shell—which boasted in 2021 about having delivered the first-ever “carbon neutral” liquefied natural gas cargo—quietly abandoned a $100 million-per-year plan last month to build out a pipeline of carbon credits en route to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Stateside, the Commodities Futures Trading Association has recently signaled that it intends to crack down on carbon credit fraud. Lawsuits are beginning to ramp up. That increased scrutiny, though, has yet to spark a broader reckoning with what it means if carbon offsets can’t be counted on to meet climate goals: a far more drastic effort to reduce emissions in real time. “There’s nothing happening today that wasn’t happening five years ago. It’s just that there was no one paying attention to it,” said environmental economist Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, whose research focuses on carbon offsets and storage. The problems with “offsets” (a term of art describing a wide suite of activities) are definitional and fall into a few categories. Most have to do with the integrity of emission-reductions claims. Carbon credits are meant to correspond to emissions that have been avoided—say, through preventing trees from being razed—reduced, or removed, typically either through technologies such as direct air capture, which draws atmospheric carbon in through fans to then be stored in pipelines or injected underground, or “natural” methods like planting trees. Not much is natural, though, about buying up and seeding vast swathes of land with crops meant to serve a single purpose. When it comes to credits generated from avoided emissions, there’s often little way of knowing whether a tract of forest, for instance, was ever actually in danger of being developed. Landowners can say they might bulldoze trees to sell off credits—even if they had no real plans to do so. Polluters who buy credits should be able to prove what’s known as “additionality”—the idea that their purchase made possible emissions reductions that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. But if the trees were never threatened, then the polluter who bought the credits hasn’t actually counteracted any of its own emissions. Third-party verifiers that judge the integrity of carbon credits have been rocked by scandals. Some two-thirds of credits on the voluntary carbon market were verified by the Verified Carbon Standard, which is administered by an NGO called Verra. A months-long investigation by The Guardian, the German outlet Die Zeit, and a nonprofit newsroom called SourceMaterial, published in January, revealed that at least 90 percent of VCS-approved credits generated in the rainforest—popular among major brands like Disney and Gucci—were worthless “phantom credits” that didn’t correspond to any reductions. (Verra has refuted the allegations.)Another major issue is who gets to claim carbon credits. If a wealthy country buys credits from a poorer one, does the country that financed those promised emissions reductions get to count them toward its climate goals? Or does the country where they were reduced? As of now, there are few protections against multiple parties staking a claim to the same credits. Even more legitimate-seeming credits generated from forestry practices are likely unable to guarantee the emissions savings promised. Where a metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted from a coal plant will stay in the atmosphere permanently, with effects felt decades down the line, a metric ton of carbon stored in trees or avoided by saving more of them can be wiped out at virtually any point. True correspondence would require that carbon to be stored permanently. That’s a difficult promise to make. Even project operators who can honestly claim to be protecting as much carbon as they say, that is—based on the size and ecological makeup of the areas in question—can’t guarantee that carbon will be stored indefinitely. California learned firsthand how that can go wrong. The state’s cap-and-trade system is premised on big polluters, including oil and gas drillers, buying up permits that correspond to emissions avoided through the protection of its vast forests. Those purchases allow a firm to make up the difference between emissions reductions in their own operations and a declining, state-mandated cap on how much they’re allowed to emit. Included in that system is a “buffer” stock of additional forest lands set aside by project developers as insurance should other credit-generating trees burn. That buffer was meant to provide 100 years of protection against wildfire risk for California forest offsets. But over the last 10 years, 95 percent of those reserves have gone up in flames, releasing between 5.7 million and 6.8 million metric tons of carbon since 2015. While the country’s largest property insurer has almost entirely stopped taking out new policies in California, citing wildfire risk, the state agency that oversees California’s carbon market still only requires forest offset project developers to set aside an additional 2 to 4 percent of trees as insurance against wildfire risk. As a Mendocino County property called Eddie Ranch burned in 2018, its owners filed paperwork with that agency—the California Air Resources Board—to be paid millions for credits generated from preserving trees that were actively burning. Months later, CARB approved the application, “basing its decision on the state of the ranch before the fire,” the Los Angeles Times reported.  “The entire market is structured around a fundamental falsehood: that a ton of carbon we get from burning fossil fuels is identical to a ton of carbon stored in forests. That is 100 percent false,” Cullenward told me. “If you store carbon for less time than it takes to stabilize temperatures, that storage does not have any climate benefit.”That’s one consequence, he explains, of seeing the world like an economist. On paper, carbon stored in trees and what’s emitted from a coal plant is all just carbon. Physical reality tells a different story. Companies relying on offset credits to meet net-zero goals typically only budget for cheap, low-quality projects likely to be worthless, or worse. High-quality offsets are exceedingly rare. More permanent carbon storage remains unproven at scale but is likely to be needed “at gigaton scale,” Cullenward says, just to stabilize temperatures. After decades of scandals, there have been attempts to put some safeguards around carbon markets. Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement creates a new U.N.-backed carbon market open to governments and companies alike to trade credits. Standards for that are being developed by a supervisory body composed of members from each U.N. regional group, and key elements will need to be approved by the countries that convene at annual U.N. climate meetings.Article 6.2 is meant to govern bilateral carbon trading—agreements reached between countries, as opposed to a market where companies and governments can shop around for offsets or offer them up for sale as needed. As of now, that’s more of a Wild West, says Jonathan Crook, who tracks negotiations for the Brussels-based watchdog Carbon Market Watch. “Countries can more or less do what they want as long as they agree to it,” he said. “There are very few rules that need to be upheld in terms of integrity and additionality.” Among the fears held by Carbon Market Watch and other advocates is that those transactions will turn into a black box. If changes agreed to at last year’s COP stick, countries will be able to keep details about trades confidential. While technical experts at the U.N. will be tasked with reviewing them, they would be forbidden from divulging information to the public. A report published by Carbon Market Watch this week puts forward a set of criteria for judging so-called negative emissions, emphasizing the need to ensure carbon is stored permanently and that such tools are used as a complement to rather than substitute for mitigation. While bilateral trades can already happen, fully fleshed-out rules under 6.2 could stand to explode the market for such deals. As bad news about carbon offsets has multiplied, so too have troubling climate science and catastrophes fueled by rising temperatures. As pressure builds internationally, dramatic land grabs like the one Blue Carbon has pushed in Liberia could become more and more common. As of now, it’s all too likely that those could do more harm than good.

Excessive Heat and Bad Coaching Are Killing Young Football Players

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. At the end of a preseason football practice in late July, Myzelle Law, a 19-year-old defensive lineman for MidAmerica Nazarene University in Kansas, returned to the locker room, and began showing signs of seizure. It was hot outside, but Law’s internal […]

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. At the end of a preseason football practice in late July, Myzelle Law, a 19-year-old defensive lineman for MidAmerica Nazarene University in Kansas, returned to the locker room, and began showing signs of seizure. It was hot outside, but Law’s internal body temperature had reached 108F, his family said. He died about a week later, of heat-related illness. Last summer, the same thing happened to the 17-year-old lineman Phillip Laster Jr, a rising senior at Brandon high school in Mississippi. In 2021, 16-year-old Drake Geiger, a player for Omaha South high school in Nebraska, died after collapsing on a practice field. They aren’t the only ones. Between 2018 and 2022, at least 11 football players in the US—at the student and professional level—have died of heat stroke. And the number of young athletes diagnosed with exertional heat illness has been increasing over the past decade or so, as unprecedented, extreme heat butts up against football season. The exertional heat illness rate in high school football was 11.4 times that of all other sports combined. This summer, the hottest on record in North America, teams across the US have been forced to reckon with a changing climate. High school and college teams in searing south-west states—where temperatures rarely dropped below 110F (43.3C) this summer – escaped to practice in the mountains, or by the coast. Teams took to practicing at dawn, before temperatures became unsafe. Friday night games were held later in the evening, or pushed to the next morning. And under the searing late summer sun, athletes and coaches are increasingly questioning the sport’s macho, push-past-the-pain mentality. Coaches acquired wet-bulb thermometers, which account for humidity as well as air temperature, to better measure heat stress, as well as cold immersion tubs to treat heat stroke. “We’re having these heatwaves that are lasting longer. They are more severe than ever before. And they’re touching geographic regions that formerly didn’t experience them,” said Jessica Murfree, a sports ecologist at the University of Cincinnati. “The opportunity to play sports like football is diminishing as a result.” For Max Clark, a sophomore quarterback for the College of Idaho, the start of each football season in August has felt a bit hotter than the last. “As each year goes by, it feels like more and more of our season is consumed with unbearable or uncomfortable heat,” he said. Practices were especially grueling last year, when Clark was a quarterback for the Arizona State Sun Devils. Practices began at 6am, so the team could wrap up before the hottest part of the day. And home games were held after sunset. “People don’t even want to sit in the stands and watch when it’s 103F,” he said. Transferring to the College of Idaho wasn’t much of an escape—Boise was trapped under a heat dome for much of July. To stave off heat illness, Clark closely monitors his nutrition throughout the day, and makes sure to stay hydrated when he’s on and off the field. “It’s about preparing for the heat, because you can’t really escape it.” he said. Players around the world, across all sports of all levels are grappling with similar realizations. The World Cup-winning midfielder Sam Mewis has written about how her performance has been impacted by extreme heat and wildfire smoke. This year, the US Open amended rules to partially shut the stadium roof in order to shade players during a searing heatwave on the east coast. But American football players are among the most vulnerable to heat illness. A 2013 study found that the exertional heat illness rate in high school football was 11.4 times that of all other sports combined. The season’s start coincides not only with the hottest period in much of North America, but also with hurricane season in the south and peak wildfire season in the west. In Idaho, many players and fans have begun to associate smoky skies with football, Clark said. And unlike cross country runners, or soccer players, footballers wear heavy padding and safety gear, which makes it harder for them to cool off. “The environment in which today’s athletes are playing sports, is wholly different from the environment when their coaches were playing.” The artificial grass that students and professionals play on causes even more complications. Studies suggest that synthetic turf can get up to 60F hotter than natural grass, radiating temperatures above 160F on summer days. Most heat illness happens right at the beginning of the season, or pre-season—when players are first returning to the field after long, off-season rests. It can take two or more weeks for their bodies to adjust to grueling outdoor workouts. Certain medications, including common ones used to treat depression and ADHD, can make players especially prone to heat illness. Linemen—the biggest, bulkiest players on the team—are extra vulnerable. “They don’t cool off as well as players with a leaner body might,” said Karissa Niehoff, CEO of the National Federation of State High School Association. “The majority of our heat illnesses in football were in the lineman position.” Nearly a dozen football players died of heat stroke between 2018 and 2022, according to the National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. But the figure may be an underestimate as not all football deaths are reported to the center, or clearly linked to heat in autopsies. The risks are compounded for young athletes of color, who are more likely to go to schools and live in “heat island” neighborhoods that lack shade and green spaces. “Imagine, if you live in a place that doesn’t have air conditioning, you don’t have sufficient shade to keep you cool on your walk to school, and then your school doesn’t have air conditioning either,” said Ruth Engel, an environmental data scientist at UCLA who studies microclimates. “By the time you have to go play football, you’ve never had a chance to cool down—so you start at a huge disadvantage.” The year that the University of Maryland offensive lineman Jordan McNair died—2018—ended up being the fourth hottest year on record globally. The team had just returned from a month-long break to start their first workout of the season. It was a balmy day—just over 80F, with 70 percent humidity, and all the players were running 110-yard sprints. By his seventh sprint, McNair started cramping up, but kept running. About an hour later, he began foaming at the mouth and about thirty minutes after that, he was loaded into an ambulance. The 19-year-old died two weeks later. “Really the main thing I kept asking myself was why?” said his father, Marty McNair. “What did I miss? What did I miss?” A 74-page independent investigation commissioned by the university placed significant blame on the university trainers and medical staff, who failed to check the wet-bulb temperature and modify workouts to reduce the risk of heat illness. Instead, the trainers pushed McNair to keep running even after he showed signs of heat stress and failed to offer life-saving cold-immersion therapy before it was too late. The university eventually agreed to pay a $3.5 million settlement to Jordan’s family, and in the years since, has adopted new policies to better recognize and prevent heat stroke. And Marty McNair started a foundation named for his son, to train coaches and athletes on heat safety. Since then, after a slew of scorching football seasons, he’s started to hear more discussion and action on heat safety, he said. “Obviously global warming is real, and that’s going to be impacting athlete’s safety. And I think now people are starting to be more receptive to that idea.” In 2021, the state adopted a law named for McNair that required the creation of new health and safety requirements in Maryland athletic programs. Lawmakers have introduced a federal version as well. Still, Marty McNair sees massive disparities in the expertise and equipment that schools have to help athletes experiencing a heat stroke. “Your Black, your brown, your rural community teams, you don’t see them checking a wet-bulb globe thermometer—because they’ve barely got the basics,” he said. But as the climate changes, he believes the culture of football will have to change as well. “I always told Jordan to be coachable. So I never taught him that if you feel uncomfortable doing something that the coach asked you to do, you don’t have to do it. You know, listen to your body first.” Zac Taylor can barely remember how his body felt, before he collapsed on the gridiron in 2018. It was hot, and his high school varsity team had been made to do about 280 “up-down” push-ups after two hours of sprints and drills as a punishment for poor performance at a scrimmage. Taylor just remembers waking up at the hospital a week later. He lost more than 50lbs by the time he was discharged, his mother Maggie Taylor recalled. She has since started a non-profit, along with other parents, that donates safety and medical equipment to school teams and teaches young athletes how to look for signs of heat exhaustion. Part of that work includes teaching players to slow down, and coaches to ease off. The idea runs counter to football culture in many ways. (“Water is for cowards,” Denzel Washington’s Coach Boone proclaims in Remember the Titans.) Players are incentivized to strain themselves beyond their limits by coaches who themselves were mentored with the same sort of tough love. “There’s this culture of ‘keep pushing’, of punishment practices and if you stop, you’ll lose your position on the team,” said Maggie Taylor. “That’s how a lot of these old school football coaches operate.” Part of the problem, says Murfree, the sports ecologist, “is the environment in which today’s athletes are playing sports, is wholly different from the environment when their coaches were playing. Year after year we’re outpacing heat records and catastrophic disaster records.” Although very young athletes—at the elementary and middle school level—are physically most prone to heat illness, it’s the teens and young adults who are most at risk for exertional heat stroke, studies have found, simply because they push past their bodies’ warning signs. “With these young adults, all they want to do is make the varsity team, to come off the bench, to get recruited by the best college teams,” said Murfree. “They want to make their coaches and parents proud. And all that can be counterproductive if the body is being overworked.” There’s an idea that young athletes are superhuman, or act like they are, McNair said. “Jordan was 6ft 5, he was 300lbs. He wore a size 16 shoe—but he was still 19 years old,” he said. “These are still kids.”

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